mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Is there a high pressure up there somewhere?Yeah, over the lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah, over the lakes! Mac, You get any winter precip today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Saturday system probably be a mix bag , or snow to rain.. Then that might set the stage for a gulf low first of next week per JB He said he didn't know how far north it could get right now? So that may be a Ga. SC eastern NC snow? The setup we are in now is more supressive then Sat. Day 5 the heights are high in the east, it should cut. But will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just looked at the models on tropical tidbits, the CMC was the only one I saw that showed anything wintry for the upstate for either the weekend system or next week. All the others just showed rain. Central NC had a little better shot on a couple of the runs. Right now, looks like the cold will be gone just in time for the weekend system, at least for the upstate, with temps progged into the 40s and 50s for Sat and Sun. Not the best look for the upstate, but I think NC will have a better shot. Here to hoping I will finally see my first flake of the season (lots of sleet today but no snow).This storm was a Chicago jackpot, 5-6 days out, now we have the 2nd biggest sleet storm I have ever experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 0z gfs has a winter storm for GA at 99. North trend by Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I like this look1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This was for today 5 days or so ago...same look http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015021200&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=26 Well, that's not too bad then, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mac, You get any winter precip today? Clearly not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Mac, You get any winter precip today?Yeah man! Got about 2 inches of sleet, mixed with a little zr! Trees are bending, wind is picking up, lucky to still have power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The setup we are in now is more supressive then Sat. Day 5 the heights are high in the east, it should cut. But will see... Yes I know, But like today going to be a lot of left over COLD air Saturday. We'll see IDK? 00z GFS IDK if it will be right, But it looks like a good thump Saturday to me. Of course it can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Should we have a thread for Wednesday? Might need another on for Friday, too, in another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Now NC snowstorm at 114 Wow, only 5 days out, too. We could have three winter storms in six days... Fab Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I like this look1 It'll cut , just ask pack, Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks same as today's event looked 5 days out. HP slIdes out and it cuts. But nice front end for W-NC Yeah, that's pretty much meh....we need to see snow in Hilton Head at this time range Pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The setup we are in now is more supressive then Sat. Day 5 the heights are high in the east, it should cut. But will see... Plus, we got Great Lakes low getting ready to scoop up our overrunning event this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah, that's pretty much meh....we need to see snow in Hilton Head at this time range Pack I understand, and you probably right. But verbatim it looks good right now.... lot of cold left over just like today. I hope Maybe snow changing to rain? I'm just looking at models, you Guys certainly know a lot more than I do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's the week to 10 day period that keeps on giving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It'll cut , just ask pack, Brick Doesn't work for the upstate - 850s only come down to the state line. I noticed that 1035 low hung out around Indiana/Ohio/WV for a few frames then high tails it down to Wilmington in one frame - wonky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Doesn't work for the upstate - 850s only come down to the state line. I noticed that 1035 low hung out around Indiana/Ohio/WV for a few frames then high tails it down to Wilmington in one frame - wonky?It's been beat to a pulp, but models really are horrible, and this week is quite an anomalous pattern, lots of records going down Thursday , highs and lows! The models can't handle regular patterns, much less a crazy one. The Monday /Tuesday thing, is after an arctic front goes through, and a low forms along the front, that set up has brought alot of good wintry events to the south, could all just be rain, we will see!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 this isnt too bad. low should move SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GGEM is an absolute hammer Job for northern GA/SC and most of NC on Friday night/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess all of you forgot how far north this system today started out 5-7 days ago smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Another thing to keep in mind is there is going to be a snow/ice pack still in place from at least NC north for the next one. This sleet isn't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes, the GGEM looks like quite a winter storm for the western piedmont of NC. Well over 1" qpf for Saturday. Most looks frozen/freezing during the day. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's been beat to a pulp, but models really are horrible, and this week is quite an anomalous pattern, lots of records going down Thursday , highs and lows! The models can't handle regular patterns, much less a crazy one. The Monday /Tuesday thing, is after an arctic front goes through, and a low forms along the front, that set up has brought alot of good wintry events to the south, could all just be rain, we will see!?Models can't handle the same pattern they are predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If t he ukie along with doc, who was about 24 hrs latter at 12z today, honk tonight again, fire up the bus, I'm all in. Had both feet in the door for next weekend for couple days now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If t he ukie along with doc, who was about 24 hrs latter at 12z today, honk tonight again, fire up the bus, I'm all in. Had both feet in the door for next weekend for couple days now anyway.Is this the Wed/ Fri/ Monday bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Is this the Wed/ Fri/ Monday bus? Friday night/Saturday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Honestly, I'm going to start paying attention to the Ukie more...seems to be an underrated model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Honestly, I'm going to start paying attention to the Ukie more...seems to be an underrated model. Its been hot this year, it has some big weaknesses though. I thought it came a bit south at quick glance on the 00Z run. I think this event has some big changes yet to come...I can see it easily becoming incredibly phased and basically producing mostly rain south of the KY and VA borders. At the same time, if the push from the high to the north coming down the Plains is stronger it could easily become a weak wave that slams into the high and produces 24-36 hours of overrunning snow and sleet for AL/MA/GA/TN/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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