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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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Saturday system probably be a mix bag , or snow to rain.. Then that might set the stage for a gulf low first of next week per JB He said he didn't know how far north it could get right now? So that may be a Ga. SC eastern NC snow?

The setup we are in now is more supressive then Sat. Day 5 the heights are high in the east, it should cut. But will see...

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Just looked at the models on tropical tidbits, the CMC was the only one I saw that showed anything wintry for the upstate for either the weekend system or next week. All the others just showed rain. Central NC had a little better shot on a couple of the runs. Right now, looks like the cold will be gone just in time for the weekend system, at least for the upstate, with temps progged into the 40s and 50s for Sat and Sun. Not the best look for the upstate, but I think NC will have a better shot. Here to hoping I will finally see my first flake of the season :popcorn: (lots of sleet today but no snow).

This storm was a Chicago jackpot, 5-6 days out, now we have the 2nd biggest sleet storm I have ever experienced
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The setup we are in now is more supressive then Sat. Day 5 the heights are high in the east, it should cut. But will see...

Yes I know, But like today going to be a lot of left over COLD air Saturday. We'll see IDK?

 

00z GFS IDK if it will be right, But it looks like a good thump Saturday to me. Of course it can and will change.

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Yeah, that's pretty much meh....we need to see snow in Hilton Head at this time range Pack

I understand, and you probably right.  But verbatim  it looks good right now.... lot of cold left over just like today. I hope

 

Maybe snow changing to rain?  I'm just looking at models, you Guys certainly know a lot more than I do.....

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Doesn't work for the upstate - 850s only come down to the state line. I noticed that 1035 low hung out around Indiana/Ohio/WV for a few frames then high tails it down to Wilmington in one frame - wonky?

It's been beat to a pulp, but models really are horrible, and this week is quite an anomalous pattern, lots of records going down Thursday , highs and lows! The models can't handle regular patterns, much less a crazy one. The Monday /Tuesday thing, is after an arctic front goes through, and a low forms along the front, that set up has brought alot of good wintry events to the south, could all just be rain, we will see!?
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It's been beat to a pulp, but models really are horrible, and this week is quite an anomalous pattern, lots of records going down Thursday , highs and lows! The models can't handle regular patterns, much less a crazy one. The Monday /Tuesday thing, is after an arctic front goes through, and a low forms along the front, that set up has brought alot of good wintry events to the south, could all just be rain, we will see!?

Models can't handle the same pattern they are predicting?
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Honestly, I'm going to start paying attention to the Ukie more...seems to be an underrated model.

 

Its been hot this year, it has some big weaknesses though.  I thought it came a bit south at quick glance on the 00Z run.  I think this event has some big changes yet to come...I can see it easily becoming incredibly phased and basically producing mostly rain south of the KY and VA borders.  At the same time, if the push from the high to the north coming down the Plains is stronger it could easily become a weak wave that slams into the high and produces 24-36 hours of overrunning snow and sleet for AL/MA/GA/TN/SC

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