Batman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Folks, we need to remember that blocking(-NAO) is not required for us even in North and Central GA to get a good winter storm. There are plenty cases where we have had great storms without blocking. Also, how many times has major blocking led to suppression? Plenty. Lack of blocking means timing and trough axis are more critical. That is the case with most potential storms for us. Lots of things to be positive about for this next storm. The track is starting out further south. Air coming in will be even colder than the previous air mass. There is going to be lots of snow to our north to limit modification of cold air coming down. Also, some models are depicting high pressure to the north that would make it more difficult for this storm to turn very far north. It is not a slam dunk by any means, but to just assume it will turn north is very premature IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 From WPC for late this week... IN GENERAL THE EVOLUTION OF UPR FLOW TOWARD A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH GREATER FLOW OF MSTR FROM THE GULF SHOULD PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY MESSY PCPN PATTERN CNTRL-ERN AREAS WITH SNOW N/RAIN S AND A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION ZONE BTWN THE TWO. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DEVELOP CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF SPECIFIC PCPN AREAS... THOUGH FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OR SO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PCPN TOTALS FOR THE OVERALL PERIOD HAS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/SRN HALF OF THE APLCHNS Well that certainly sounds good. They seem pretty confident about this being at least something to watch. Why not???!! One more fail to go out with a bang??!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 18z GFS FWIW has moved towards the Euro somewhat in the 90-108 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For the next week event, 12z GEFS tries to push the front further, 12z GGEM has a Winter storm of sorts, the 12z Euro & EPS all around SC and even the coast doesn't look bad on EPS. Not going to really bite until it's still a potential come Monday. Looking forward for the UKMET to get in range of the system and give it's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Folks, we need to remember that blocking(-NAO) is not required for us even in North and Central GA to get a good winter storm. There are plenty cases where we have had great storms without blocking. Also, how many times has major blocking led to suppression? Plenty. Lack of blocking means timing and trough axis are more critical. That is the case with most potential storms for us. Lots of things to be positive about for this next storm. The track is starting out further south. Air coming in will be even colder than the previous air mass. There is going to be lots of snow to our north to limit modification of cold air coming down. Also, some models are depicting high pressure to the north that would make it more difficult for this storm to turn very far north. It is not a slam dunk by any means, but to just assume it will turn north is very premature IMHO. Great post BM! Great pattern right now. Could we be saying "remember February 2015" in the future? What a turn around since a couple of weeks ago and CPC shows no sign of negative NAO. Goes to show how more than one factor influences winter in North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The new GFS has a low of 13 Friday morning at CHS. Incredible with no snow on ground. Has CLT with lows of 3 back to back nights, and not getting out of teens on Thursday. Also has GSO with a HIGH of 10 on Thursday and a low of -7 Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 just wow. Just Mackerel.That is insane cold period, but especially late Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 just wow. Un Real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Just Mackerel. That is insane cold period, but especially late Feb! Lol! Let's see what it does once it realizes there is much less snow on the ground than it thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol! Let's see what it does once it realizes there is much less snow on the ground than it thinks. It's underestimating the cold! I'm all in for the Monday /Tuesday event next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol! Let's see what it does once it realizes there is much less snow on the ground than it thinks. Here's a simple question in regards to the "cooling effect" of snowcover. Does it matter whether there is 2" vs. 2 feet? I'd say no, but would like to hear other thoughts. One thing for sure regarding this weekend, this storm has filled in the holes just to our north. When this next storm arrives, believe it or not, there will be much greater snow cover to our north. Maybe this means or will result in a further south track. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here's a simple question in regards to the "cooling effect" of snowcover. Does it matter whether there is 2" vs. 2 feet? I'd say no, but would like to hear other thoughts. One thing for sure regarding this weekend, this storm has filled in the holes just to our north. When this next storm arrives, believe it or not, there will be much greater snow cover to our north. Maybe this means or will result in a further south track. TW I've always wondered that too man. I think as long as it can effectively cover the ground (which I'd put somewhere in the 4" range), I'd think that would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like we have a shot at more wintry weather Wednesday, Friday, and next Monday. Love the chances coming up this week. And what is this about thundersnow on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 According to meteostar, these are Hickory's forecast lows this week: Tue morn: 22 Wed morn: 3 Thu morn: -10 Fir morn: -14 Sat morn: 2 Just. Wow. Brrrrrr.... I've never witnessed negative temperatures IMBY, much less 10 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 JB has an awesome weatherbull this today if you can check it out... The snow the Ens show over the next 15 days or so is unreal if half of in works out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 JB has an awesome weatherbull this today if you can check it out... The snow the Ens show over the next 15 days or so is unreal if half of in works out....can you expand on what he said big frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 can you expand on what he said big frosty. It's only just begun, pretty much Cold right through March the Euro Ens. snow max next 15 days was just north of NC but all NC gets a bunch and SC and Ga. also.... IF the ensembles are even close on winter precip next 15 or so days it's going to be a fun ride.... He also showing CFSv2 how it's gone cold for March and lots of precip in the SE. His last words was, LOOKS LIKE FUN!!! lol Courtesy of weatherbell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I have to say he was right about things starting this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pack was posting CFS images in the Banter thread that had a lot of red colors over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's only just begun, pretty much Cold right through March the Euro Ens. snow max next 15 days was just north of NC but all NC gets a bunch and SC and Ga. also.... IF the ensembles are even close on winter precip next 15 or so days it's going to be a fun ride.... He also showing CFSv2 how it's gone cold for March and lots of precip in the SE. His last words was, LOOKS LIKE FUN!!! lol Courtesy of weatherbell... thank you frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pack was posting CFS images in the Banter thread that had a lot of red colors over the east. I guess JB colored them blue! lol That was yesterday's run, So IDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pack was posting CFS images in the Banter thread that had a lot of red colors over the east. MS paint by Wilkes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No one talking about the NAM for Wednesday? Apparently it gives RDU some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Well my dwindling precip forecast busted lol cant wait for the water for the cement mixture thats on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NWS gives me 50% chance snow showers Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No one talking about the NAM for Wednesday? Apparently it gives RDU some snow. Been so focused on this event I haven't really looked at anything else; but your right it looks like near .1 liquid equ near RDU eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No one talking about the NAM for Wednesday? Apparently it gives RDU some snow. You talk about it. How much do we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You talk about it. How much do we get? I will... it's a real flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Will the wind be up when this artic front comes through, like it was Sat night. Been below freezing since then. If we can stay below tomorrow, it'll be sat before we Crack 32. Got about a 2 hour window tomorrow. anyone know what the record length of time is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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