mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think from here on out, we should not have any storm thread threats, since they never work out! We should only have obs threads, when and if it ever snows and sleets. Like today's excitement over 2 min of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Theres no hope for a winter storm below the virginia line this year.. you got a great lakes low that has been there the whole winter and a se ridge thats been around the whole winter.. maybe next winter we will have better luck..my chips are off the table.. maybe we can get a couple two to three inch rain storms before the dry season arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Long ways to go and we are still in a favorable pattern. Any one of these storms could work out. At least we aren't under a strong ridge in the east... Bravo! A voice of reason I saw a blizzard in the middle of March, and we haven't even gotten to Feb. yet, lol. Plenty of rain running underneath me, and plenty of cold up above...just waiting on the timing now. I've got snow in my point forecast again...might work out this time...maybe next Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bravo! A voice of reason I saw a blizzard in the middle of March, and we haven't even gotten to Feb. yet, lol. Plenty of rain running underneath me, and plenty of cold up above...just waiting on the timing now. I've got snow in my point forecast again...might work out this time...maybe next Tony Tony!! One day I will see snow in my point forecast......one day......lol.....until then I'm enjoying these cool, cloudy extended springlike days while waiting for that perfect timing to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Look at radar tonight. I was scrolling and hit accuweather national loop. Snowing all over the northeast wide spread. Then out in the sw there's our super bowl storm already popping echoes in Texas. It looks pretty well defined in size and scope. Makes you sick thinking it's gonna pass right to the north, if it would stay south and come on out we would have been in business 48 hrs from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 One thing I wonder is how often have we had winter weather when the NE or MA has been blanked? This whole winter the NE and MA have been totally blanked...I find it hard to believe we can have a good winter when they are not. As much as it grinds folks gears that they are getting jackpotted it seems to me you almost need to have them in the game. Good snow pack storms that can spin up and create a 50/50 low that can maybe get our timing right. Just a thought there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bravo! A voice of reason I saw a blizzard in the middle of March, and we haven't even gotten to Feb. yet, lol. Plenty of rain running underneath me, and plenty of cold up above...just waiting on the timing now. I've got snow in my point forecast again...might work out this time...maybe next TonyExactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When the MA and NE are scoring, that means we are not, most of the time. Suppressed storms don't hit them. We need suppression. They don't. Two different patterns. Unfortunately, this ain't our year...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Burger good point. It doesn't bother me when they jackpot that much. But boy is it entertaining & humerous when they get Lucy to yank the ball out. Misery loves company I supose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 nam looks to be headed for the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When the MA and NE are scoring, that means we are not, most of the time. Suppressed storms don't hit them. We need suppression. They don't. Two different patterns. Unfortunately, this ain't our year...again. I get that...but overall how often in winter do we all blank? I feel like 2011/12 was more like that where everyone got the shaft. I wonder how often they do well and we get blanked. I guess I feel like we kind of have to lay down the path first up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I get that...but overall how often in winter do we all blank? I feel like 2011/12 was more like that where everyone got the shaft. I wonder how often they do well and we get blanked. I guess I feel like we kind of have to lay down the path first up north. I'd guess it would be pretty rare that we all blank. You're right for sure. I don't think it would be too hard, if we don't get blocking, for them to do well and us to get skunked. Blocking is the thing we need most. I don't care if they get a thousand feet of snow or zero. I don't think that has a lot of bearing on our chances. But that's just my opinion. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The mid Atlantic did terrible in 2010 -11 we had over 30" here in only half a winter. Great year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z gfs has Sun storm up in west virginia. The MA crowd just had Lucy pull the football out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When the MA and NE are scoring, that means we are not, most of the time. Suppressed storms don't hit them. We need suppression. They don't. Two different patterns. Unfortunately, this ain't our year...again. That's not necessarily true, though. 2010 Christmas/Boxing Day, the Blizzard of 96, etc. were all huge storms in the SE and also clobbered the MA/NE, as well. Now, for somewhere like Columbia, SC, it is more true, though, as they pretty much need a suppressed storm like January 2011 to score... and that was too suppressed even for N NC. BTW, the GFS shifted further north for the D3-4 storm. DC goes over to rain, as does much of West Virginia. If you haven't punted, the time has come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So who hasn't punted on this SB storm? winter? honest question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's not necessarily true, though. 2010 Christmas/Boxing Day, the Blizzard of 96, etc. were all huge storms in the SE and also clobbered the MA/NE, as well. Now, for somewhere like Columbia, SC, it is more true, though, as they pretty much need a suppressed storm like January 2011 to score... and that was too suppressed even for N NC. BTW, the GFS shifted further north for the D3-4 storm. DC goes over to rain, as does much of West Virginia. If you haven't punted, the time has come. No, you guys are right. It's not exclusive...like always one or the other. There are ways that we both get snow. I'm just saying that I don't think them being above normal necessarily makes a lot of difference for us. I can see more scenarios where they get a lot of snow and we don't, as opposed to them being above normal and us being above normal too. It seems like the patterns that are best for them are not really the best for us, with the exception of coastals or Miller As that make the turn up the coast. We haven't seen a ton of those over the last several years though. I don't know...maybe I'm generalizing too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So who hasn't punted on this SB storm? winter? honest question... I'm not ready to punt winter. Climo says Fab Feb or Marvelous March will deliver ("deliver" might be an inch, though). No, you guys are right. It's not exclusive...like always one or the other. There are ways that we both get snow. I'm just saying that I don't think them being above normal necessarily makes a lot of difference for us. I can see more scenarios where they get a lot of snow and we don't, as opposed to them being above normal and us being above normal too. It seems like the patterns that are best for them are not really the best for us, with the exception of coastals or Miller As that make the turn up the coast. We haven't seen a ton of those over the last several years though. I don't know...maybe I'm generalizing too much. I think when the Mid-Atlantic is above normal, we tend to usually (but not always) be, as well. 2009-2010 and 2013-2014 were epic winters in the NE, but were also great winters here in the SE for the most part, as well. The Northeast is another animal, though, as you said. They can score from redeveloping clippers and all kinds of other stuff that we have no chance with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So who hasn't punted on this SB storm? winter? honest question... I have definitely punted on the SB storm, winter on the other hand I haven't quite yet.. In my location it isn't wise to punt until mid March at the earliest, but I admit I am getting pretty bleak about or snow chances this winter. 8 of the past 11 winters have been historically bad with many winters only a Trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I have definitely punted on the SB storm, winter on the other hand I haven't quite yet.. In my location it isn't wise to punt until mid March at the earliest, but I admit I am getting pretty bleak about or snow chances this winter. 8 of the past 11 winters have been historically bad with many winters only a Trace of snow. very true...you might have to wait until early April to totally punt for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Honestly, given what the stats show, we just aren't going to manage a significant event this season in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I have definitely punted on the SB storm, winter on the other hand I haven't quite yet.. In my location it isn't wise to punt until mid March at the earliest, but I admit I am getting pretty bleak about or snow chances this winter. 8 of the past 11 winters have been historically bad with many winters only a Trace of snow. Yeah, we're feast or famine down here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Atlanta still gets a back end changeover at 84, keep the hope alive! Consistently being shown by the models! A 10 min burst of snow after 2+ inches of rain= amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well the GFS shows most of WNC at only .50 and the rest of the state less than that, I wouldn't be surprised if the low keeps trending north for it to be even drier most areas. Don't tell jshetley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So who hasn't punted on this SB storm? winter? honest question... I haven't I can remember numerous times in Feb where it would be 70+ degrees followed a day or two later by snow and or ice...check this vintage clip with Stuart Scott (RIP) when he was with WRAL....listen to what he says about the weather leading up to this event..notice it even stuck how can that be... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCB-_oSEjVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Honestly, given what the stats show, we just aren't going to manage a significant event this season in this area. I have a hard time buying we get totally blanked but would not be surprised. It's just crazy how every storm seems to trend the same way all season even with what you think are players on the field. Just one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I haven't I can remember numerous times in Feb where it would be 70+ degrees followed a day or two later by snow and or ice...check this vintage clip with Stuart Scott (RIP) when he was with WRAL....listen to what he says about the weather leading up to this event..notice it even stuck how can that be... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCB-_oSEjVE oh very nice! I agrtee with you its MORE than possible this winter, I just am not seeing things change Synoptically right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00z gives CLT and GSP a consolation prize of 1-2 inches @180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I have a hard time buying we get totally blanked but would not be surprised. It's just crazy how every storm seems to trend the same way all season even with what you think are players on the field. Just one of those winters. I don't think yall do either, I really don't....but gooness, we have to slow the pattern down at some point right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice rainstorm on Fab Feb 5th on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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