EmersonGA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CMC looks interesting It will end up hitting NC a up to DC while we have 50 and rain on frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great as it is under 150... But hey, this system took a long time (of short) to come into focus No plastering, but snow from 120-138 NW tip of SC up through NC mtns and foothills. SN- spread east at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This potential storm looks like it might be bigger than today's, and it's only 7 days out now. Going to have to focus on this threat quickly after the current storm goes through. Winter seems to want to end with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It seems like all this snow/sleet from I-40 north in to KY, VA, WVA would help keep the air cool going in to next weekend in advance of another potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With no blocking, it doesn't matter how good storms look 5, or even 3 days out, as we are currently dealing with! Why would the Sat storm not go north and crush DC , again? What has changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With no blocking, it doesn't matter how good storms look 5, or even 3 days out, as we are currently dealing with! Why would the Sat storm not go north and crush DC , again? What has changed?I agree 100% mack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I agree 100% mack.I agree with that too. I don't believe the wintery scenario for anyone outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With no blocking, it doesn't matter how good storms look 5, or even 3 days out, as we are currently dealing with! Why would the Sat storm not go north and crush DC , again? What has changed? Well, the storm today looks like it will be a pretty big deal for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0909 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF TNCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 161509Z - 162015ZSUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTINGSUBSTANTIAL ICING ACROSS MUCH OF TN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THEPRECIPITATION SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTINUOUS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATIONEXTENDING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO MIDDLE TN. WITH NQA AND OHXVWPS DEPICTING NOTABLE VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT IN THELOWER TROPOSPHERE...WAA IS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. RELATED STRONGISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE IN PROXIMITY TO A LLJ THAT WILLGRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THEASCENT/PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS.THE 12Z BNA RAOB SAMPLES AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE H85SURMOUNTING DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR...SUPPORTING SLEET.HOWEVER...ELEVATED WAA-ENHANCED WARMING WILL ALSO HAVE A PROPENSITYTO MELT DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FREEZING RAINACROSS THE REGION...AND LOCAL-AREA/UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTFREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. SLEETACCUMULATION RATES MAY REACH NEAR A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR.SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THESE FREEZING RAIN/SLEETRATES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.SHORT-RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE NEAR-SFC WARMINGSUPPORTING A TRANSITION TO PURE LIQUID RAIN ACROSS SRN PARTS OFMIDDLE AND SERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS SHOW AVERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE -- AS REPRESENTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS FROMTHE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS -- AND RELATED WET-BULB COOLINGMAY OFFSET SFC-LOW PRECEDING WAA AND VERY MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. ASSUCH...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY PREDOMINATEREGION-WIDE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROMWEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY MID-AFTERNOON...ASLARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With no blocking, it doesn't matter how good storms look 5, or even 3 days out, as we are currently dealing with! Why would the Sat storm not go north and crush DC , again? What has changed? There will be another cold air mass in place and this time lots of snow coverage just to the north. Insitu CAD would have some real power (especially for your area). **but I will have to admit you'll still want to be north of any low; if not then you'll still be toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With no blocking, it doesn't matter how good storms look 5, or even 3 days out, as we are currently dealing with! Why would the Sat storm not go north and crush DC , again? What has changed? Beat me to it Mack! We take the bait every time. This storm has ZERO chance of happening unless some blocking develops to hold the cold and storm track down our way. If not, it will head north like every other storm ever has without blocking. Our current "storm" has trended hundreds of miles north just over the past 2 days. Next weekend has MA to NE written all over it without some good blocking. Besides that; GSP temps for the weekend are calling for 45 and 51 - no snow with that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, the storm today looks like it will be a pretty big deal for NC. You are correct; BUT, we're talking about what is currently being modeled for next weekend. Not two days ago this current storm was going to be a big deal for more than just NC (not everone on the board lives in NC). But in reality, GA and SC are getting the screw job (either all ice or nothing at all). So based on what we are seeing NOW (a boderline snow/ice for non mtn locations) for the coming weekend, without blocking, how do you think reality will turn out (remember just a few days ago people were worried about suppression as today's system was being modeled much further south)? This one will be a no go for us without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You are correct; BUT, we're talking about what is currently being modeled for next weekend. Not two days ago this current storm was going to be a big deal for more than just NC (not everone on the board lives in NC). But in reality, GA and SC are getting the screw job (either all ice or nothing at all). So based on what we are seeing NOW (a boderline snow/ice for non mtn locations) for the coming weekend, without blocking, how do you think reality will turn out (remember just a few days ago people were worried about suppression as today's system was being modeled much further south)? This one will be a no go for us without blocking.good analysis. Just 48 hours ago the mountains look to see a foot of snow then all of a sudden the storm moves north and know we might see ice or just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You are correct; BUT, we're talking about what is currently being modeled for next weekend. Not two days ago this current storm was going to be a big deal for more than just NC (not everone on the board lives in NC). But in reality, GA and SC are getting the screw job (either all ice or nothing at all). So based on what we are seeing NOW (a boderline snow/ice for non mtn locations) for the coming weekend, without blocking, how do you think reality will turn out (remember just a few days ago people were worried about suppression as today's system was being modeled much further south)? This one will be a no go for us without blocking. Why couldn't it work out like today's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why couldn't it work out like today's storm? Think about your question and reread my post. Today's storm isn't working out for almost all of us, as it was modeled just a couple days ago, let alone 5-6 days ago. Yes, NC is still getting in on some stuff and perhaps still N SC will get some ice, but is looks nothing like it did on models 48-60 hours ago. NC had to absorb a 200-400 mile jog North to avoid supression - get in the bullseye - and now be on the southern fringe for it to still "work out." Next weekends storm is starting out with us on the fringe - we don't have any room for error or for a northern jog at all and still be in the hunt. Mods, sorry if this conversation should be in banter instead - it just kinda evolved as we all started looking at next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks like a hint of blocking at 500mb West Greenland in the last week of February. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/Outlook_D264.00.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lots of negativity in this thread. Ya'll need to step away from the ledge and enjoy the fact that we have another legitimate threat to follow. In fact, basically all of the major global models agree that North GA gets a solid thump of snow on Friday... That's only 4 and half days away. The latest GFS really hammers them!!! I don't think a trend north is our enemy with this intial leaf of precip being generated... it's just a matter of some precip getting thrown far enough east into our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lots of negativity in this thread. Ya'll need to step away from the ledge and enjoy the fact that we have another legitimate threat to follow. In fact, basically all of the major global models agree that North GA gets a solid thump of snow on Friday... That's only 4 and half days away. The latest GFS really hammers them!!! I don't think a trend north is our enemy with this intial leaf of precip being generated... it's just a matter of some precip getting thrown far enough east into our area... Man for awhile, we had the finger of precip getting to us at about 8-10 am, then the big jump north 2 days ago! Sad really! What time is the next storm? Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man for awhile, we had the finger of precip getting to us at about 8-10 am, then the big jump north 2 days ago! Sad really! What time is the next storm? Friday? Potentially Friday evening.. The ? mark seems to be how far east this leaf of precip gets during that timeframe. The GFS has it fizzling out in the upstate, but hammers North Georgia with up to 8 inches of snow from it.. GGEM looks very similar but throws the precip farther east into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here is the GGEM compared with the GFS. Notice how similar they look... just need that precip to break out over us(like the GGEM is showing) and we would be golden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Already went north on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Already went north on 12z GFS Huh? Most models have that system going North.... Our snow chances lie with the leaf of precip that breaks out on Friday afternoon, not the System winding up in Texas on Sunday. Though the map you depicted will probably build CAD in and lead to an icing event before that system moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm starting to think we need a seperate PBP thread for the negative nancys to discuss how we aren't going to get any winter weather over the next few weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm starting to think we need a seperate PBP thread for the negative nancys to discuss how we aren't going to get any winter weather over the next few weeks.... It's getting a little silly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm starting to think we need a seperate PBP thread for the negative nancys to discuss how we aren't going to get any winter weather over the next few weeks.... Everyone calm down. Negative biases should be allowed to speak just as the snow hounds do. Mods, keep this in mind please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some blocking would go a long way. Would have helped this storm quite a bit. Yes at least we do have several events to track. Really it looks like the rest of the month will stay active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not too impressed with this "potential" event either. I don't think it makes us negative nancy like, especially considering how most of us in SC/GA are getting screwed with the current storm. Just took a look at the 12z GFS and once again, looks like a NC storm... UKMET pretty much tries to agree screwing the majority of GA/SC through 144 with the first wave. The longer range storm is ew, the track is already across the interior gulf states. Strong HP trying to edge in, but ew; you can have that ice up North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not too impressed with this "potential" event either. I don't think it makes us negative nancy like, especially considering how most of us in SC/GA are getting screwed with the current storm. Just took a look at the 12z GFS and once again, looks like a NC storm... UKMET pretty much tries to agree screwing the majority of GA/SC through 144 with the first wave. The longer range storm is ew, the track is already across the interior gulf states. Strong HP trying to edge in, but ew; you can have that ice up North. Yeah the UKMET is not enthused from what I can tell, the GGEM though is nasty for GA from 100-108...the problem is the UKMET has been correct on all these events so far beyond 72. I cannot tell for sure but it does not seem to have from 96-108 over AL/TN/GA what the GFS and GEM have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah the UKMET is not enthused from what I can tell, the GGEM though is nasty for GA from 100-108...the problem is the UKMET has been correct on all these events so far beyond 72. I cannot tell for sure but it does not seem to have from 96-108 over AL/TN/GA what the GFS and GEM have Do you have access to precip or RH panels for the Ukmet? It's hard for me to tell if it's generating any precip based off the 500mb and surface pressure maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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