CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. I just looked at the 6Z GFS bufkit for Raleigh... Showing us pretty much dry as a bone throughout the whole thing! Also, can someone explain what you mean by "cutter"? I assume a track too far north and west? A cutter is a surface low pressure coming out of the southwest which takes a more north/northeast path but west of the Apps. Generally into the the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. This leaves the eastern seaboard and southeast on the warm (rain) side of the storm. Typically you will hear/read those referred to as a 'lakes cutter' or plain 'cutter' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think there is a real chance this can get too suppressed for us, as I mentioned this a few days back. One thing I would keep in mind is what has happened all winter. We've been rooting for a system to dig in the SW and then eject out....but it just hasn't happened like that so I'm pretty suspicious now of the models digging it so far, not phasing with that cut off in the sw and then going into the meat grinder. Sorry just don't buy it. Not because it's showing a solution I don't want, just that the pattern which hasn't changed really tends to not do that. Typically the energy diving doesn't dive nearly sw enough or experiences sever liftoff once getting into TX. I think the UK probably would be a more likely solution at this point for reality with it's Miller B look as that would fit climo this year. Of course anything can happen, I would expect Saturday we start getting a clear picture of things. Excellent post. Well-grounded in solid reasoning and I tend to agree with everything you mentioned. Pattern has not changed. No reason for this system to be so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For our Alabama friends... here's what Spann just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm sure nobody cares but the clipper threat is starting to look legitimate, at the very least it seems like Northern GA and the mountains could score some nice powder with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm sure nobody cares but the clipper threat is starting to looking legitimate, at the very least it seems like Northern GA and the mountains could score some nice powder with this.been watching it. Could be another 2-4 on top of the early week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm not as advanced as yall seem to be but really am learning a lot from yall. And just have to ask what does it take for a LP to bomb off and affect and area like northwest central north Carolina. maybe a reference site to see runs leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Round 2 showing up on the 0z gfs for next Saturday. Nice wedge set in w/ a 1032 high sliding east and another 1044 high dropping in over the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Next weekend's potential on the 0z GFS looks alot better than the last run. Maybe we'll have a second shot... And yes, it's still 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Round 2 showing up on the 0z gfs for next Saturday. Nice wedge set in w/ a 1032 high sliding east and another 1044 high dropping in over the Dakotas. Attaboy! Now that's the one right there! In all seriousness, we could have a legit 2-3 week period with multiple threats here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Round 2 showing up on the 0z gfs for next Saturday. Nice wedge set in w/ a 1032 high sliding east and another 1044 high dropping in over the Dakotas.JB said so! This Tuesday storm , is just the beginning of a long line of rain storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcdemondeac Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And looks like Round 3 coming in 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro D7 just buries TN. I'm interested to see how this one evolves from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The EPS seems to support the op in that it shows potential in the D7-10 period. The EPS Mean tonight for GSO is nearly 3" over that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The EPS seems to support the op in that it shows potential in the D7-10 period. The EPS Mean tonight for GSO is nearly 3" over that period. While not the same specifics at this point, 6z GFS shows something at similar time frame. Interesting week ahead, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is going to be a frigid week coming up. After today, we barely break freezing at any point in Hickory over the next 7 days according to multiple different models. I don't think I've ever seen negative temperature readings here, but the GFS is pushing us close to -10 F for the Thursday timeframe. It's amazing what snowpack can do. Time to reel it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro Op run has 40" of snow through most of TN through day 8 and 35-40" for western NC. Has 12"-20" for the triad. This is per the EuroWx snow maps which are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Im becoming more interested in the weekend system than the events of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The Euro D7 just buries TN. I'm interested to see how this one evolves from there. I know that would be sweet to have eclipsed our seasonal record in less than two weeks - doubtful that would happen but crippling if so as it usually takes 4" or less to shut us down in Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is dropping an inch of ice on RDU Sat/Sun of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is dropping an inch of ice on RDU Sat/Sun of next week. ....you didnt hear that from LC, did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is dropping an inch of ice on RDU Sat/Sun of next week. Devastating ice storm to the east and record snowfall in WNC and Tennessee. Would be a heck of a storm if it came to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ....you didnt hear that from LC, did you? lol, about ten years ago and I survived the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the 12z canadian is just absurdly cold by day 10. unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Been a long time since this area has stayed below 32° like the 12z GFS is showing today. A solid 2 week stretch broken up by one day it gets to 33° (using Meteostar)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't forget this at hour 162 on the 18z GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS showing another super nice storm late next weekend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If we go through this period and see nothing but ice for the upstate I am going to be really disappointed. This current system looks to be mostly ice and the weekend looks to be the same. How frustrating to finally get a good pattern and still not be able to get a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just some fantasy eye candy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Several models have been intermittently showing this finger of precip for next weekend. Based off the thermal profiles on all the models it would be wintry.. I'm not sure I've seen a set up like this before? I haven't really looked into what's causing this streak of precip to break out. Maybe some upper level jet dynamics at play here??? Anybody have any thoughts on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS. Talk about ducks on the pond. Wow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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