Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GGEM is much further south than the 12z run. I mean, my area went from 7" of snow and 0.75" of ZR to ~2" of snow from 12z to 00z, for example. It's probably a good trend for the majority of the board, however. I bet when all the back and forth is done it will end up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Canadian drops about 5 inches on areas between sc and nc border up to hwy 64, east to west. I can't tell on the 2 ukie maps if it's miller b or a, but my guess is a since they are 12 to 24 hrs apart. And I can't see lines well enough on map to hone in on exact track. Just have to wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When you look at the GFS/GGEM/Navgem/UK from the 1000 foot view they are starting to converge, some weaker east and some that are more amped up solutions. For day 4-5 they are not so far apart unless you are nitpicking your specific backyard. Agree, and we've come a long, long way from the Ohio Valley cutter....so, things look pretty rosy right now in the big picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 +1 packbacker. It's really narrowed down big picture wise. The microclimate view is a backwards way of looking at things this far out. There is a ton of agreement at 0z with gfs, ukie and canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jesus Christ. From double digit totals this morning to ZERO on both the GFS and GEM tonight. Unbelievable. I hope it cuts. lol night folks. Enjoy your snow, Tallahassee, Columbus, Charleston, by tomorrow at this time apparently. [some sarcasm, a bit of weenie rage (giggity) and Zzzquil] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not surprising, the GEFS ticked N/W of it's 18z run, much further NW than the Op. The miss is not for suppression. Looking at better maps of the UK, it has the SLP in east-TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think its safe to say someone in SE will likely get a form of winter wx. Where and how much is still anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Better check the ens. Just saw gfs means and it's north of op. Pretty good luck up your way. 4 days, trust me it will wiggle back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z GEFS mean does look a tick north of the 18z mean through hr 102. I think some of you guys might be looking at an older run, unless Stormvista has the maps out already. EDIT: At hr 120, definitely a little north of the 18z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Honestly I couldn't be sitting better right now. No ice to deal with and nice snow event. Course it will change some, hopefully for the better. gfs means look great. Haven't seen canadian. And pack are you sure ukie is east tn, where did u see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Honestly I couldn't be sitting better right now. No ice to deal with and nice snow event. Course it will change some, hopefully for the better. gfs means look great. Haven't seen canadian. And pack are you sure ukie is east tn, where did u see it http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree, definitely much better chance than the SB oelr any other so called threat. but less moisture is slightly concerning on some of the models. Honestly I couldn't be sitting better right now. No ice to deal with and nice snow event. Course it will change some, hopefully for the better. gfs means look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 It has the look of a pretty far south Miller B transfer that would probably work out well for NC, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It has the look of a pretty far south Miller B transfer that would probably work out well for NC, however. Timing is almost identical but it's 150 miles north of the 12z up to that point. I have no idea about the transfer, I haven't seen good maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks. Yep 1008mb right over GA, TN,AL state lines. Hope it miller bs and not a to its next plot 24 hrs latter, or it would be waa and ice as opposed to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have to say the canadian is a nice event for north ga, in one form or another with cold surface temps in the 20s. Afterwards, wow the canadian shows it getting brutally cold after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z GEFS mean snowfall is improved over the 18z run. CREDIT: AmericanWx Model Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, I don't think this Euro run is going to come in suppressed, thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, I don't think this Euro run is going to come in suppressed, thus far. nope..it's not going to be like the gfs. much slower/wetter through 90 hours. .I'm a bit surprised at the lack of activity in here tonight. large area of snow over alabama, north ga, tn and moving into nc at 96 hours..greater than 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So does SC That doesn't happen often enough Until then.....I'll enjoy the rain Darlin' with the rain underneath and the cold on top, one is going to hit, eventually. Just have to stay away from the models and look at the trends, lol. Must be going to be a book end winter, with the real thing deciding to come on board now, lol. Glad you cleared the portals out, so the cold could linger. Looks cold for a while now.. if the models don't change in a half a day..and still time for another blizzard if we are worthy, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nope..it's not going to be like the gfs. much slower/wetter through 90 hours. .I'm a bit surprised at the lack of activity in here tonight. large area of snow over alabama, north ga, tn and moving into nc at 96 hours..greater than 0.25 yes, looks good so far!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CAE to ATL to BHM looks ICY!!by 6z TUE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 102 it goes over to sleet/freezing rain over north ga..another 0.25. 0.10 to 0.25 over sc consisting of snow or a mix. 850 0c isotherm runs across extreme north ga and northern sc. So if i had to guess it's sleet mainly with surface freezing line from atlanta to just south of columbia sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still looks ICY in that same corridor for 12z TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CAE to ATL to BHM looks ICY!!by 6z TUE as well. Chris, let's make that sleety, if you please, No more ice for us for at least 20 years, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CAE to ATL to BHM looks ICY!!by 6z TUE as well. looks good so far. hour 108 it's gone over to what is likely light freezing rain based on 850s. freezing temps down into central ga...even down to augusta by 108. trail of moisture continues to the west. here is where it gets tricky though..by 114 there is enough of a break in precip that surface temps warm above freezing most areas. northern edge of light rain is through central ga/sc. north carolina doesn't get much after the initial light snow btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 102 it goes over to sleet/freezing rain over north ga..another 0.25. 0.10 to 0.25 over sc consisting of snow or a mix. 850 0c isotherm runs across extreme north ga and northern sc. So if i had to guess it's sleet mainly with surface freezing line from atlanta to just south of columbia sc. Maybe an I-20 wintry mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 looks good so far. hour 108 it's gone over to what is likely light freezing rain based on 850s. freezing temps down into central ga...even down to augusta by 108. trail of moisture continues to the west. here is where it gets tricky though..by 114 there is enough of a break in precip that surface temps warm above freezing most areas. northern edge of light rain is through central ga/sc. north carolina doesn't get much after the initial light snow btw. agreed...this is going into suppression.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maybe an I-20 wintry mess? moisture might be making a rebound at 120..0c 850 runs from atlanta to athens but that is also the back edge of the precip. nope..pushed south by 126. huge change though from the 12z run which was very wet at this stage. Regardless decent event ms/al/ga/sc. maybe 0.50 to 0.75 in the atlanta/athens to greenwood to columbia corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Amazing turn of events here. From like 2" of QPF to maybe a tenth or two in one run of the Euro... Wow... the south trend continues. EDIT: Eh, looks like 0.3-0.4" QPF, so maybe not as bad as initially thought. The second wave is close, but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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