Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This is a millet a with the second wave and pretty decent event piedmont east, with 4 to 5ish in central nc. The ukie, which has led the way has looked similar with a miller a track up se coast if my memory is correct. It's just more juiced up. So it appears the 2nd shortwave diving down monday into tuesday is the one that's going to bring the goods. Euro amps it most and is, was futher est inland at 12z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Basically his pitch was "one of the models that gave us the most snow this morning, now has 0 over us". Then went on to state "I've seen guys putting together rain/snow lines. That's absolutely ludicrous at this point". Now, i realize that wasn't a specific jab, but having just watched your video, where you do a great job as usual explaining it's not a forecast, etc. it felt like a shot.

its all good...I have a pretty good feeling that that area, as of now....has a pretty good shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, suppression is not going to be the miss here, still an inland track with any kind of amped solution is going to rain on us.

 

I agree...I was actually glad to see the suppression on the 0z gfs.  I don't like seeing the ukie north but there are a log of model runs to go.  But if there is a miss I think it'll be north and west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2009.  Solid 6 inches here on 78 between Atlanta and Athens.  A bit more to my east.  Deformation band rotated right overhead here.  Would have been twice that much had it fallen at night.

That was March 2009. That was the massive bowling ball ULL. There was a smaller event in December 2009 or December 2010 that produce a very insignficant snow for the Atlanta area and it came from a clipper that came unusually south, between .5-1.5 inches across the metro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So he ignores all the other runs throughout the day and goes with the last GFS, which still does have snow for us? I don;t know what his deal is this winter, but he has been hating on everyone for discussing the weather on social media and boards like this.

I don't know anything about Fishel but there is a lot of reason to be skeptical right now. Cutter, suppressed, now the UK which was south is coming north. The models are all over the place and it's a strange storm with not a lot of analogs. Usually a low coming from where this originates would end up as a Miller B but this stays south. There's a reason why everyone thought this was going to cut, they usually do. I don't think there's much to say right now other than it seems likely that some people will get their best storm of the season (which isn't saying much). The front end whatever it is should at least make it snow some places that haven't seen snow. After that, who knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So this 0z suite is interesting? GFS goes supression and a few others are trending back northward, slightly!

 

The GGEM is much further south than the 12z run.  I mean, my area went from 7" of snow and 0.75" of ZR to ~2" of snow from 12z to 00z, for example.

 

It's probably a good trend for the majority of the board, however.

 

Wow at the 00z NAVGEM, though.  Huge storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GGEM is much further south than the 12z run.  I mean, my area went from 7" of snow and 0.75" of ZR to ~2" of snow from 12z to 00z, for example.

 

It's probably a good trend for the majority of the board, however.

 

 

It would be much worse if the GFS/CMC were showing apps runners at this point from day 4, we would be dead in the water, no chance.  If you want snow this is about what you want to see from 96-120 hours, if you are in the SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...