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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off?  I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far.

who laughed it off? I don't think anyone should discount any possibility with how horrible the models have been this year. I can't say i'm shocked the by the 0z run. It's almost laughable when you think about it showed damn near a lake cutter just a few runs ago. although it does redeem itself by hour 120 lol

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Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off? I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far.

Not sure who laughed it off but man a cutter west of the apps to suppression seems a bit extreme to me so that's the only reason I don't buy it. Ensembles say differently.
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LOL.... 850's crash and actually might show some snow around here by Tue midday...all the way back up toward ATL and BHM and south.  QPF looks ok around there.  2m might be a smidge warm. same for CAE and GSP and light snow north of there.  then the sfc low starts to get stronger off the coasts....I just don't buy this AT ALL right now..

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Not sure who laughed it off but man a cutter west of the apps to suppression seems a bit extreme to me so that's the only reason I don't buy it. Ensembles say differently.

 

I just mean that people said that suppression wasn't even a concern and that we really needed to worry about a cutter.  I think everything is a concern at this point.  Hopefully, the Canadian/Euro/UKMET stay locked in and the GFS doesn't continue this trend in future runs.

 

EDIT: Of course, you guys in the eastern Piedmont might not want the GGEM/Euro to stay locked in, but it's every man for himself! ;) :)

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I just mean that people said that suppression wasn't even a concern and that we really needed to worry about a cutter. I think everything is a concern at this point. Hopefully, the Canadian/Euro/UKMET stay locked in and the GFS doesn't continue this trend in future runs.

yeah. I wrote off this storm way too early and I was 99% sure it would cut, obviously the models fooled me. Anything is possible right now. It would be so cruel to see this thing disappear.
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LOL.... 850's crash and actually might show some snow around here by Tue midday...all the way back up toward ATL and BHM and south.  QPF looks ok around there.  2m might be a smidge warm. same for CAE and GSP and light snow north of there.  then the sfc low starts to get stronger off the coasts....I just don't buy this AT ALL right now..

I don't either really. It's a wild departure from every other model and run. But hey, what else is knew this year with the gfs ? (and everything else really)

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At this point, I think a southward track is more likely than an inland runner given the southward progression over the polar vortex across the Hudson Bay/Ontario. I'm not sure if I'm ready to buy complete suppression like the GFS has been trending toward, but it's definitely something that needs to be watched.

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GFS is actually the perfect sfc low snow track for this area so hard to complain at this point

 

This is very true.  Just add more QPF and most of us would be happy.  At least it's cold.  It has real potential to be high-ratio fluffy fun...

 

EDIT: Actually, 2m temps aren't even that great that run.  GSO is barely below freezing and RDU, etc. is above.  Of course, the GFS is also on its own with that, so...

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