SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thats concerning with cold air and dry air as well. Very low Td's around here. For people concerned what can go wrong, the big thing I see is the NAM is not exactly explosive with the precip from 78-84 and there is serious confluence from just off the Mid-Atlantic and SE Coast due to the New England blizzard, if that is slow to get out of the way I could see this shearing to pieces and nobody much east of AL or WRN-CNTRL TN seeing anything, the 2nd wave then may amplify and warm everyone. I recall a setup like this maybe 15 years ago where we epically busted on snow in ERN TN and NRN GA, they had 4-5 inches on the AL/GA border and not even a flake at ATL as everything sheared out as it went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think winter has been found, can we actually get a winter storm? My early thoughts and a map of my thoughts and where I think the **BEST** shot at this point where we could see some wintry weather. Enjoy! Please like my page if not already, thanks everyone! y'all rock!! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 IT will certainly make it take longer then it usually would, especially with the storm track shifting south which will reduce the warm air advection. Thanks, I know you mentioned it earlier today (locally) from the 12z gfs I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z NAM has freezing rain and snow for North GA at hr81-84 Has surface temps generally in the upper 20s, snow/sleet/freezing rain depending on where you are with wetbulbs in the 23 to 25 range. Actual temps in the mountains are in the low 20s. Pretty nice foundation for a locked in cold airmass for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 THE 50/50 low on this is pretty classic. It will help immensely setting up confluence over the NE and allowing HP to linger around up there longer than it normally would. The trends usually go in our favor in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For people concerned what can go wrong, the big thing I see is the NAM is not exactly explosive with the precip from 78-84 and there is serious confluence from just off the Mid-Atlantic and SE Coast due to the New England blizzard, if that is slow to get out of the way I could see this shearing to pieces and nobody much east of AL or WRN-CNTRL TN seeing anything, the 2nd wave then may amplify and warm everyone. I recall a setup like this maybe 15 years ago where we epically busted on snow in ERN TN and NRN GA, they had 4-5 inches on the AL/GA border and not even a flake at ATL as everything sheared out as it went east. Thats a really good point. I didn't think about that...It could easily get sheared apart. See if this continues, but either way...what falls in GA if any would be frozen or freezing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM-12km forecast radar ptype 12z MondayThat's not looking like alot of moisture. Is the second wave going to come? That's also alot earlier, is that around noon Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Has surface temps generally in the upper 20s, snow/sleet/freezing rain depending on where you are with wetbulbs in the 23 to 25 range. Actual temps in the mountains are in the low 20s. Pretty nice foundation for a locked in cold airmass for the main event. Honestly, Chris, thats what concerns me for us *especially y'all way* because as you know that could REALLY lock that into the forecast and it will be underestimated by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's not looking like alot of moisture. Is the second wave going to come? That's also alot earlier, is that around noon Monday? The nam is a lot faster but it matches the euro's precip. The 12z euro's first "wave" is pretty weak, light and to the south..affecting mainly north ga/sc with only 0.10 to at most 0.25 before precip explodes later. Folks should keep in mind that precip associated with the main system is another 24 hours away. Folks should also keep in mind this is the 84 hour nam.,..it's pretty horrible 95% of the time. If it was showing a blizzard at 84 hours i wouldn't trust it. I am interested however in the type of airmass in place..that's a lot more reliable than precip/storm tracks, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 THE 50/50 low on this is pretty classic. It will help immensely setting up confluence over the NE and allowing HP to linger around up there longer than it normally would. The trends usually go in our favor in these situations.Does that force moisture and cold south? Sorry for the dumb question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a question about the first batch of precip? If it comes in and gives us snow and sleet or whatever , and it wetbulbs the atmosphere, then there is say 12 hours till the next "batch" , could it slowly warm in between precip, would we have " wasted" the evaporational cooling on the light stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The way this winter has been so far, I'm still not overly excited for up here this far north it might be too suppressed for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM shows single digit dew points well into Georgia at 12z Monday. This will be a heckuva a diabatically induced CAD wedge. Verbatim, that's a crazy nose of moist air pushing into north Georgia and upstate. That doesn't look good for that area as far as evaporational cooling or sustained CAD is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The nam is a lot faster but it matches the euro's precip. The 12z euro's first "wave" is pretty weak, light and to the south..affecting mainly north ga/sc with only 0.10 to at most 0.25 before precip explodes later. Folks should keep in mind that precip associated with the main system is another 24 hours away. Folks should also keep in mind this is the 84 hour nam.,..it's pretty horrible 95% of the time. If it was showing a blizzard at 84 hours i wouldn't trust it. I am interested however in the type of airmass in place..that's a lot more reliable than precip/storm tracks, etc. very true...NAM has a pretty DRY airmass in there for us. That could realy "enhance" that wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Verbatim, that's a crazy nose of moist air pushing into north Georgia and upstate. That doesn't look good for that area as far as evaporational cooling or sustained CAD is concerned.That placement of the wedge on that map is not right, IMO ! It's not going to warm up in Anderson , Pickens and such, while it's alot colder in CAE!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That placement of the wedge on that map is not right, IMO ! It's not going to warm up in Anderson , Pickens and such, while it's alot colder in CAE!? Could be thanks to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Could be thanks to the mountains.I've never seen a wedge erode from due west, like pictured on that map, from SW or S yes, just looked funky to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gfs identical to 18z thru 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Whether the wedge is "enhanced' or not, that same atmospheric battle will be fought as any other time. In order to have precip even begin, the dry air needs to be overcome. The drier the wedge, the more moisture needed to do the job. The moisture arrives with WAA riding over the wedge. The longer it takes to saturate the column the more precip is 'wasted'. Warm air continues to flow north with the moisture as the column slowly saturates. While a super wedge may hang on for a longer period before being scoured out late in the event, it will delay the onset of precipitation at the beginning. The radar will be lit up with virga and the moaning and groaning in the forum will increase with every scan. In the end, it will most likely turn out like almost every other similar storm. The usual spots will have their usual type of precip in the usual amounts. Yes, a rare event will occur now and then, when blocking slows a storm while an unusually strong HP in perfect position continually reenforces the wedge throughout the event and we get that once in 20 year storm. It takes a perfect setup though and I don't see it with this one, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gfs identical to 18z thru 75 50/50 is stronger and further south through 84 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Whether the wedge is "enhanced' or not, that same atmospheric battle will be fought as any other time. In order to have precip even begin, the dry air needs to be overcome. The drier the wedge, the more moisture needed to do the job. The moisture arrives with WAA riding over the wedge. The longer it takes to saturate the column the more precip is 'wasted'. Warm air continues to flow north with the moisture as the column slowly saturates. While a super wedge may hang on for a longer period before being scoured out late in the event, it will delay the onset of precipitation at the beginning. The radar will be lit up with virga and the moaning and groaning in the forum will increase with every scan. In the end, it will most likely turn out like almost every other similar storm. The usual spots will have their usual type of precip in the usual amounts. Yes, a rare event will occur now and then, when blocking slows a storm while an unusually strong HP in perfect position continually reenforces the wedge throughout the event and we get that once in 20 year storm. It takes a perfect setup though and I don't see it with this one, at least so far. Very true, although one thing to keep in mind is that models do take evaporation to saturate the atmosphere into account, so there's no need to subtract from QPF for it unless you think the wedge will be drier than modeled. The models will take that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like snow in GA north of 20 at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 50/50 is stronger and further south through 84 though. yep, colder at 84 for those in northern ga/upstate sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like moisture is a little more suppressed early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think this is going to be wayyy further south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 500mb is a little flatter across the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 precip much drier and further south thru 93...nothing of note in nc really, even sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the baja low didn't weaken as quick, but it's not going to be north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Absolute disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS looks AWFUL!!! Shearing EVERYTHING out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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