GlaringSun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 don even think about it. I would not trust that model at all. Really everything us just a trend right know. Alright. I was afraid someone was going to say this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How accurate has the DGEX model been with snow totals and temperatures this winter? AFAIK, it is the GFS initialized from the hr 84 NAM... The hr 84 NAM is terrible, so it's pretty much a horrible model and pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Alright. I was afraid someone was going to say this don't worry yet. We have had some great discussion on here today and people will steer you in the right direction model wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Worst case scenario... There ends up being 2 waves... the first wave dampens out and provides nothing more than flurries for most... the second main storm arrives later on Tuesday. The low pressure cuts through Nothern GA/Upstate SC from this 2nd wave. 850's warm and high pressure slides out leaving everybody with 33 and rain except the Mountains. Thank you Burrell -- I DO think we will get something more than the flurries / light dustings we've had up hereat some point this winter and this may very well be "it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah man, no problem. 18z has 12-15 inches from GSP to RDU. image.jpg Extend that back to the WSW and Atlanta as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Worst case scenario... There ends up being 2 waves... the first wave dampens out and provides nothing more than flurries for most... the second main storm arrives later on Tuesday. The low pressure cuts through Nothern GA/Upstate SC from this 2nd wave. 850's warm and high pressure slides out leaving everybody with 33 and rain except the Mountains. This - and it would be very easy for it to happen. Another thing is that the low may very well end up farther north like was being shown before today and it's rain for all but the high elevations. Orrrrr... the 1024 high we're seeing over the MA doesn't came as far south or is weaker and the te,mps here are warmer all the way around. Lot of things can go wrong in this part of the country, and almost always do, as evidenced by the rarity of snow ouside of elevation. BUT... at least we have something to watch and the fantasy maps are pretty aren't they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 18z DGEX can sometimes foretell a move by the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah man, no problem. 18z has 12-15 inches from GSP to RDU. image.jpg Only thing about this image is the Lee side drying. That heavier band is more like from Anderson through Ft Inn to South Sptbg - so a little SE of 85 proper, meaning the NW corner gets the short end as always - and all the maps posted on this page show the Oconee Pickens, N Gville shaft. Either way, this map is a pipe dream and the bullseye NEVER holds from 5 days out so... ...The maps will change every run anyway, but I still HATE that lee side dry slot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 18z DGEX can sometimes foretell a move by the 0z GFS. Yes, I think I recall this happened on last year's event. If more of the SW energy ejects at the right time, it could be an big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes, I think I recall this happened on last year's event. If more of the SW energy ejects at the right time, it could be an big one. Have you checked the SREF plumes? They are starting to bite on some snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Have you checked the SREF plumes? They are starting to bite on some snow at the end. SREF plumes are already biting on sn/ip into KCAE over rain. Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here is a facebook video from Chris Justus of WYFF Greenville, he seems a little excited but says anything is still on the table. https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusMeteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SREF plumes are already biting on sn/ip into KCAE over rain. Interesting indeed. Watch that model too... it was a good guide leading up to last year's storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I get it that infrequent posters are generally ignored and I don't want to throw cold water on the excitement or jinx the potential for a winter storm in the SE, especially IMBY....but, should we speculate some about what could go "wrong" -- at least briefly? -- so that we, 1.) aren't utterly disappointed; and 2.) understand the dynamics at play a little better? Or, not. We aren't even in the range where the NAM gives us precip, so just an indicator of how far out we are. Anything and everything could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here is a facebook video from Chris Justus of WYFF Greenville, he seems a little excited but says anything is still on the table. https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusMeteorologist I'm a big fan of Justus. Easily my favorite local met. If he's starting to get on board, then the GSP/Upstate need to start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Robert has a good writeup on wxsouth.com if you're a subscriber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Robert has a good writeup on wxsouth.com if you're a subscriber. What has been his public thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From Robert on FB:Just a quick touch on next week's storm system. First, this is the best chance yet this season for the South and MidAtlantic, but there's never a guarantee, just because its all agreed upon. Things can and do change. I do think though for someone, this is going to be a big hit just not sure where yet. The energy for the Storm will take a unique path , going from the Gulf of Alaska, dropping into the Southwest States, picking up a "Baja low" and then merge with it, all in tandem with a Long Wave trough axis that is gradually. This means the moisture will proliferate with time, blossoming from Texas, the Deep South and then work up the coast, and train along for the same areas for more than 24 hours in some cases. There will be a lot of jet streak enhancement to the precip development in the South and East by Monday (and may start Sunday initially). By Monday night the whole Gulf is opening up quickly and pouring moisture north toward the Carolinas and Virginia where cold air is in place, and by Wednesday morning it should be coming to an end along the East Coast. Its too early for the specifics, who gets what, but if you're north and west of the low, at some point you should get some Winter precip. It is possilble the southwest low doesn't get picked up and that would change things toward less precip--but most of the time, it gets picked up. With time I can draw rain, snow , ice lines. For wherever there is snow and ice, with the upcoming cold air , it should stick easily. And there will be vicious cold following this storm next week too. Image: Unusual track for a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From Robert on FB:Just a quick touch on next week's storm system. First, this is the best chance yet this season for the South and MidAtlantic, but there's never a guarantee, just because its all agreed upon. Things can and do change. I do think though for someone, this is going to be a big hit just not sure where yet. The energy for the Storm will take a unique path , going from the Gulf of Alaska, dropping into the Southwest States, picking up a "Baja low" and then merge with it, all in tandem with a Long Wave trough axis that is gradually. This means the moisture will proliferate with time, blossoming from Texas, the Deep South and then work up the coast, and train along for the same areas for more than 24 hours in some cases. There will be a lot of jet streak enhancement to the precip development in the South and East by Monday (and may start Sunday initially). By Monday night the whole Gulf is opening up quickly and pouring moisture north toward the Carolinas and Virginia where cold air is in place, and by Wednesday morning it should be coming to an end along the East Coast. Its too early for the specifics, who gets what, but if you're north and west of the low, at some point you should get some Winter precip. It is possilble the southwest low doesn't get picked up and that would change things toward less precip--but most of the time, it gets picked up. With time I can draw rain, snow , ice lines. For wherever there is snow and ice, with the upcoming cold air , it should stick easily. And there will be vicious cold following this storm next week too. Image: Unusual track for a storm Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 [quote name="FallsLake" Thanks for posting. No problem bud, ill post more when he does. As long as im not breaking any rules? Edit: I like Robert, very good met imo. Ive learned alot from that man and have alot of respect! Is he perfect, no what Met is? His comments may have not bein in great detail but hey the man has to make something cant do everything for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The long wave trough on the models is a great clue to search for in trying to find winter weather oppurtunities in the day 7 to 15 day range. I do it by watching the 300mb area and see if one can sink south enough and get in position to generate mischief. It was really becoming obvious earlier this week, that the potential was there for our event we are discussing now and it's possible that it holds out long enough for more fun n games by next weekend. Sometimes these long wave troughs get kinda stuck or settled, but most of the time they are transient. February or second half of winter seems to be the most favorable time since the westerlies sink the furthest south before retreating back up toward santa land for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM shows single digit dew points well into Georgia at 12z Monday. This will be a heckuva a diabatically induced CAD wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00z NAM has freezing rain and snow for North GA at hr81-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You can take all that precip the NAM has at the end of its run over KY and TN and shift it into GA/AL because thats where its gonna be on all other guidance, NAM always too far N and W at 78-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Allan, won't it take quite a bit to erode that in NC then? I mean, WAA will be tough to get done, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I just posted a blog post on my website regarding the cold weather this weekend and the upcoming potential for wintry weather early next week. I am not sold on the idea yet, especially since 24 hours ago the storm was modeled to track west of the Apps and bringing a cold rain to the southeast. Regardless of the track, parts of the area will see wintry weather Monday into Tuesday morning. With the dry air in place, evaporational cooling will at least cause snow, sleet, and freezing rain for parts of the piedmont of SC and NC and northern parts of GA. The next couple of models runs are going to be telling, especially if the system remains suppressed and off the coast. So, I am expecting at least some sort of wintry weather at the onset of the precipitation for parts of the southeast. (It is way too early to determine where this will happen.) With the strong upper level jet and energy with this system, the system has the potential to be very big. With the upper level energy off the coast, we will not have much information about this upper level energy for another 24-48 hours. I expect the models will continue to converge on a track for this system over the next 24-48 hours (at least I hope it does). Questions also remain with the Baja Low pressure and how it evolves and ejects out. Does it get picked up or left behind? There are more questions than answers at the moment, but that is forecasting five days out. I am really looking forward to how this system involves. Regardless, it will be extremely fun to forecast! Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM shows single digit dew points well into Georgia at 12z Monday. This will be a heckuva a diabatically induced CAD wedge. Allan, that is going to be a very very key piece of the pie. Thats going to really "locally enhance" the CAD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You can take all that precip the NAM has at the end of its run over KY and TN and shift it into GA/AL because thats where its gonna be on all other guidance, NAM always too far N and W at 78-84. Thats concerning with cold air and dry air as well. Very low Td's around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM-12km forecast radar ptype 12z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Allan, won't it take quite a bit to erode that in NC then? I mean, WAA will be tough to get done, right? IT will certainly make it take longer then it usually would, especially with the storm track shifting south which will reduce the warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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