superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Come on James, tell me you are kidding right? Suppression concerns, this winter? Mostly, but, hey, we've been pretty good at missing storms this winter, so why not miss it from being too far north! this is from a well respected poster in the Northeast from another board. Don't like what he has to say at all. A couple things. 1.If the storm takes an 18z GFS track, it will NOT give big snows to GA/NC and Southeast Virginia. Not in a progressive pattern, and we all have seen cold snaps be unimpressive compared to modeled. Eastern and Northern New England into Nova Scotia would do good though. 2.This could still trend back to NW solutions easily. 3. The NW QPF shield would be way better with HP. Could be another synoptic/localized event. The trend is clear right now though. Well, it might not be "big" by NE standards where they get 80" of snow in two weeks, but I'm pretty sure most of us would consider 6" to be a pretty decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 lol sounds like a wishcast to me, 18z track with that hp gives us all wintry wx every day of the week and twice on sunday. I agree, you can try and spin things any which way you please at this point. I just wish it were easier to sort through what might be wishcasting, and what is discussion based on sound meteorological thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How's it been going man? You had any snow yet over there? Going well here bud, but only a stout dusting so far. Hoping this is the real deal and most of us cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Going well here bud, but only a stout dusting so far. Hoping this is the real deal and most of us cash in! I hope so too. I've seen about 10 snowflakes twice and two sleet pellets once. We need to end this shutout*! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Had to post this one... one of the 18z GEFS members... that's -21C down to the GOM with ocean-effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Had to post this one... one of the 18z GEFS members... that's -21C down to the GOM with ocean-effect snow. Castro getting nervous with that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mostly, but, hey, we've been pretty good at missing storms this winter, so why not miss it from being too far north! Well, it might not be "big" by NE standards where they get 80" of snow in two weeks, but I'm pretty sure most of us would consider 6" to be a pretty decent snowstorm. Well we still have a HP sliding out to sea, that's never good, but I guess we will worry about that later. Plus, this thing can only go so far east with that HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DGEX a tick NW of the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DGEX a tick NW of the Euro... Ouch... Guess 850's were a little too warm for the Central parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Folks, when referencing a model on a non-pay site, it would be helpful to post the map you are describing. Or at less a link for others to view. Thanks Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I big key from a qpf standpoint is having moisture off the baja low to eject out. The Euro ensemble mean is over an inch of qpf across all of NC with higher amounts to the southwest, so that's a good place to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DGEX a tick NW of the Euro... Just a heads up, that site hasn't updated since 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ouch... Guess 850's were a little too warm for the Central parts of the state.It tracks right over central NC. Then again, you'd kind of expect that considering its initial condition is the hr 84 NAM.EDIT: That's the 06z run. The 18z tracks through S GA and is presumably much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just a heads up, that site hasn't updated since 6z Duh...thanks for the heads up. Going to leave it so we can compare how it changes with the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Duh...thanks for the heads up. Going to leave it so we can compare how it changes with the 18z run. It's up on Ewall. Looks like it crushes I-85 with ridiculous amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Duh...thanks for the heads up. Going to leave it so we can compare how it changes with the 18z run.Yeah man, no problem. 18z has 12-15 inches from GSP to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just a heads up, that site hasn't updated since 6z This is all we need to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It tracks right over central NC. Then again, you'd kind of expect that considering its initial condition is the hr 84 NAM. EDIT: That's the 06z run. The 18z tracks through S GA and 8s presumably much better. Yeah, the 18z jackpots I-85, through GA/SC/NC. Snowmap is going to be nuts, going to aggravate Jon if we post it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is all we need to see Wow-I'll take that now and cash out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know someone this morning mentioned that the JMA and NAVGEM were still showing cutters, but the JMA came way south on the 12z run and the 18z NAVGEM is also much further south. All models appear to be in agreement on a Southeast Winter Storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The DGEX looks like pure rain or snow. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know someone this morning mentioned that the JMA and NAVGEM were still showing cutters, but the JMA came way south on the 12z run and the 18z NAVGEM is also much further south. All models appear to be in agreement on a Southeast Winter Storm now. yeah that was me, not that anyone should be worried what they show anyways lol. But it is nice to see all models converging closer to a solution., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I get it that infrequent posters are generally ignored and I don't want to throw cold water on the excitement or jinx the potential for a winter storm in the SE, especially IMBY....but, should we speculate some about what could go "wrong" -- at least briefly? -- so that we, 1.) aren't utterly disappointed; and 2.) understand the dynamics at play a little better? Or, not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I get it that infrequent posters are generally ignored and I don't want to throw cold water on the excitement or jinx the potential for a winter storm in the SE, especially IMBY....but, if we don't address what could go "wrong" -- at least briefly? -- are we "jinxing" it???? OK, what could go wrong. The high gets out of here too fast with no blocking? I don't see moisture being a problem but maybe Temps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I get it that infrequent posters are generally ignored and I don't want to throw cold water on the excitement or jinx the potential for a winter storm in the SE, especially IMBY....but, should we speculate some about what could go "wrong" -- at least briefly? -- so that we, 1.) aren't utterly disappointed; and 2.) understand the dynamics at play a little better? Or, not. Worst case scenario... There ends up being 2 waves... the first wave dampens out and provides nothing more than flurries for most... the second main storm arrives later on Tuesday. The low pressure cuts through Nothern GA/Upstate SC from this 2nd wave. 850's warm and high pressure slides out leaving everybody with 33 and rain except the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Worst case scenario... There ends up being 2 waves... the first wave dampens out and provides nothing more than flurries for most... the second main storm arrives later on Tuesday when 850's have warmed and high pressure has slid out leaving everybody with 33 and rain except the Mountains. The Burrel hit the nail on the head with this statement. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How accurate has the DGEX model been with snow totals and temperatures this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How accurate has the DGEX model been with snow totals and temperatures this winter?lol... It's a terrible model, probably the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 if this does end up 2 waves. wouldn't the surface temps be effected on whether or not snow is on the ground with the first thump of snow? Does anyone think that might play an important role in how this plays out with the main event? would it also saturate the atmosphere ahead of the storm and effect the effects of the evaporational cooling later on or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How accurate has the DGEX model been with snow totals and temperatures this winter?don even think about it. I would not trust that model at all. Really everything us just a trend right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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