Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Auto and gfs showing back end snow now, just not sure if that is cold chasing moisture or what...and we know how that usually turns out. Yeah, back-end snow is almost as hard to get as a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro does actually have some back end snow on this run for 2/2 for NC. just curious, where is the LP, and how strong is it? On a different note, for people who subscribe to and do the euro pbp's, who do you subscribe from? I've used accuweather pro before but I can only access the euro when the entire run is done (at around 2:30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro has the SFC LP over Southern VA at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Take that back about the GFS, EURO is further north with SB system. and looks like some snow for the MTNS for next wed, but rain everywhere else..NICE arctic push coming in after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice coastal at 156 but of course it beats the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Strong arctic push after the rainstorm...Who cares at this point? right? wasted cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Take that back about the GFS, EURO is further north with SB system. and looks like some snow for the MTNS for next wed, but rain everywhere else..NICE arctic push coming in after? I still think it's coming south but not enough to matter for any of us. I wouldn't give up if I was in Richmond though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Strong arctic push after the rainstorm...Who cares at this point? right? wasted cold? Looks wasted and transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Long ways to go and we are still in a favorable pattern. Any one of these storms could work out. At least we aren't under a strong ridge in the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There is no reason to look at the euro at 144. It can't even get a 96 forecast right. It seems the euro falls farther and farther every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks wasted and transient. yup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There is no reason to look at the euro at 144. It can't even get a 96 forecast right. It seems the euro falls farther and farther every year. your funny! You act like the euro is on the same lines as the CMC hahahah Every model has struggled, but wow bro...you mad because winter has sucked? Honest question. I know the answer, but yes....models have sucked this year, including the EURO, but its still BY FAR the best mid range model (and LR for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There is no reason to look at the euro at 144. It can't even get a 96 forecast right. It seems the euro falls farther and farther every year. LOL, yep. Either way things have never trended better for us inside day 4 this winter. Tough to take one on the chin this winter, but good news is it can't get worse next winter....although it may not be better either. I see the GFS/GEFS/Euro all went north a little and the CMC ticked south a little. There is a consensus growing, the debate now is whether NoVA jackpots or the NE jackpots. Both areas have had some good snow this winter so let's see who has the most luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah the LR looks horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I agree, I'm afraid the Euro has been dethroned and brought back to middle of the pack with the rest of the models. He had a good run as king though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 your funny! You act like the euro is on the same lines as the CMC hahahah Every model has struggled, but wow bro...you mad because winter has sucked? Honest question. I know the answer, but yes....models have sucked this year, including the EURO, but its still BY FAR the best mid range model (and LR for that matter)yes I am frustrated about this winter. That was not the reason for my post about the euro. Since the 2nd half of winter 10-11 it has not been as good of a model for the east coast. While it still scores slightly better than the gfs the gap is closing. I would like to see verification scores broken down by area and not just the northern hemisphere. No one cares if the euro is spectacular in Siberia or Mongolia. This is not 09-10 anymore when we can laugh at the gfs and ride the euro from 120 on. Even the eps have been subpar, just check out your thread from December. So basically my point is the whole "ride the euro" or "euro's wheelhouse" comments really need to be put to bed. Unfortunately it's just not as good as it was. Like I said before, the euro is a 40 year old former Cy young winner who only has a low 90's fastball and an Era of 4.00. But people still think about his, or its glory days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Sorry. For two days there have been so many ups and downs with this storm big on Carolina virginia line. To rain to big to rain so in 48 hour it has gone from yes to yes now no and that's that no more model runs could even help in the next 3.5 to 4.5 day just done winter over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No model is going to be correct 100% of the time. With that said, you bet against the Euro much you will be a loser. Euro is still King (until it's calling for snow in the SE) then it's a piece of crap. Lol Bad as I hate it, it looks as though this winter is a big ole screw job for us. Of course we can still get a fluke ULL roll through and give a few peeps some snow in the next 45 days. It's so bad I'm ready for warm weather! But I'm sure it will be a cold and wet spring. Just our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 From the Carolina coastal plain to Nashville on the eps for only a 96 hour lead. Wow! What is that, a shift of 600 miles? for an ensemble mean That is ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Strong signal for a miller a for next Thurs on the eps. Nice 1035 high in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 From the Carolina coastal plain to Nashville on the eps for only a 96 hour lead. Wow! What is that, a shift of 600 miles? for an ensemble mean That is ridiculous! WOW, that is unreal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 From the Carolina coastal plain to Nashville on the eps for only a 96 hour lead. Wow! What is that, a shift of 600 miles? for an ensemble mean That is ridiculous!yeah that is remarkable for only 96 hour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Here's LC take on Jan.31- Feb.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We just had a band of rain and sleet here in Raleigh. Heavy on the sleet. That wasn't in my forecast, nor did a mix show on the doppler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Here's LC take on Jan.31- Feb.2 I am right on the rain/thunderstorm line. Exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Another great track w/ a gulf low around day 7 on the 18z gfs but no cold air. It seems we either have no cold air or the push of cold is so strong the storm gets squashed or pushed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Another great track w/ a gulf low around day 7 on the 18z gfs but no cold air. It seems we either have no cold air or the push of cold is so strong the storm gets squashed or pushed east. SE ridge with +AO/NAO/EPO equals no cold air. Even with a 1036 hp over the lakes with SLP tracking to our SE off the coast. Is there really any doubt about the snow prospects for remainder of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wonder why LC has the DC area in ice when models cleary show snow right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am right on the rain/thunderstorm line. Exciting times. I'm worried the inevitable NW trend will flip me from rain to thunderstorms. Nerve-racking times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm giving it until tomorrow's 12z suite. If I recall correctly, it was sometime on late Friday when the models picked up on the Monday night/Tuesday blizzard. A 100-150 mile shift at this point is not out of the question. I do admit is it unlikely but still holding out hope. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.