SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agreed....much too warm based on sfc temps. May have snow to start, change over to IP/ZR, then rain, then back to snow as the model is showing...looking forward to the ensembles. ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at. Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dare I say this, But Frosty needs a little jog north and west! lol To suppressed for N.foothills of NC This isnt going to miss you guys, still 5 days away. Though the changes were evident sooner, day 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A ukie and euro ensemble blend looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at. Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA How has the new GFS been at day 4-5 for winter events. We haven't had anything close to track so have no clue what its bias are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How has the new GFS been at day 4-5 for winter events. We haven't had anything close to track so have no clue what its bias are. Its horribly warm in the boundary layer so far up in the Northeast, even in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dare I say this, But Frosty needs a little jog north and west! lol To suppressed for N.foothills of NC I hear ya, Frosty! I'm in the same boat. We've went from too far south to too far north in 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at. Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA Agreed! I actually think we are in the "funky" time period for the GFS...Look for some crazy A** solutions for the next few days. I actually think we could see that back end vort pop something further south since the first piece should suppress the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the GFS overdoes the warm air injection north here with that 1023 High sitting right where it needs to, but what do I know. Now that's the track I'm talking about! Perhaps the temp issue is because of the pesky lakes low there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Low pops Further south on 18z GEFS than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm almost a little worried about suppression now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm almost a little worried about suppression now! I think the slight NW trend will commence tomorrow or Saturday, I honestly don't see how it can go any further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm currently gaining lots of respect for the UKMET regardless of what happens. It showed the solution of a Southern deal much faster than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No worries. This 18z GEFS brings it in S. GA. Not like it's going to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS and NAM are in close agreement thru 84 hrs with the speed and placement of surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm currently gaining lots of respect for the UKMET regardless of what happens. It showed the solution of a Southern deal much faster than other guidance. I always thought the UKMET verifies (it's forecasting scores) just as well as the EURO does doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm almost a little worried about suppression now! Come on James, tell me you are kidding right? Suppression concerns, this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 While I'm waiting on the 18z panels to come out, here was the best weenie snow map from the 12z GEFS individual panels with a sub-1000mb low blowing up off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 While I'm waiting on the 18z panels to come out, here was the best weenie snow map from the 12z GEFS individual panels. For the 12 members on ewall (no idea why they only have 12 of the 21)...a couple miss to the south, a few are amped and warmer, and several are good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 BTW, keep a close eye on Baffin ridging develop leading up to the storm.. that's what will hold the HP in place. We'll see if this feature will trend stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd feel really good about this if I was just west of CLT to Burlington. Will most likely be messy east and south of there. But still, it's a great opportunity we finally have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd feel really good about this if I was just west of CLT to Burlington. Will most likely be messy east and south of there. But still, it's a great opportunity we finally have here. Messy can be fun too. Just need to keep our surface temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Come on James, tell me you are kidding right? Suppression concerns, this winter? The absolute last thing we should be worried about is a miss SE. Let's not forget the Euro/EPS tracks this right up our fannies. Same for the GEM/ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 DGEX is a good snow hit for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The absolute last thing we should be worried about is a miss SE. Let's not forget the Euro/EPS tracks this right up our fannies. Same for the GEM/ENS. Not gonna happen...not with that air mass, unless the low bombs out over AL. Not worried about suppression. At. All. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Messy can be fun too. Just need to keep our surface temps below freezing. Agreed on both. Snow with a glaze on top makes great sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 this is from a well respected poster in the Northeast from another board. Don't like what he has to say at all. A couple things. 1.If the storm takes an 18z GFS track, it will NOT give big snows to GA/NC and Southeast Virginia. Not in a progressive pattern, and we all have seen cold snaps be unimpressive compared to modeled. Eastern and Northern New England into Nova Scotia would do good though. 2.This could still trend back to NW solutions easily. 3. The NW QPF shield would be way better with HP. Could be another synoptic/localized event. The trend is clear right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agreed on both. Snow with a glaze on top makes great sledding! I need Tony to weigh in on this matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agreed on both. Snow with a glaze on top makes great sledding! But sleet on the bottom is best! Not seeing that for NNC though. Gonna have to come back way north to bring ice into the disco around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 this is from a well respected poster in the Northeast from another board. Don't like what he has to say at all. A couple things. 1.If the storm takes an 18z GFS track, it will NOT give big snows to GA/NC and Southeast Virginia. Not in a progressive pattern, and we all have seen cold snaps be unimpressive compared to modeled. Eastern and Northern New England into Nova Scotia would do good though. 2.This could still trend back to NW solutions easily. 3. The NW QPF shield would be way better with HP. Could be another synoptic/localized event. The trend is clear right now though. lol sounds like a wishcast to me, 18z track with that hp gives us all wintry wx every day of the week and twice on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 But sleet on the bottom is best! Not seeing that for NNC though. Gonna have to come back way north to bring ice into the disco around here. I think there's plenty of time for the NW trend. We WILL see that before this is all said and done. But, I hope we see see mostly snow. Gonna take some work to get that around here though. I need Tony to weigh in on this matter. How's it been going man? You had any snow yet over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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