packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Fairly close, except the Op was a few hours slower. 0z had an apps runner. My bad, I thought you meant the 12z Op run. It's not even close to the 0z run, way SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My bad, I thought you meant the 12z Op run. It's not even close to the 0z run, way SE. No problem. We appreciate the updates with the Euro products. One more SE shift and you will be ready to go "ALL IN!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet maps are out. It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's. It's a west to east tracking sfc low. 850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel. Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro. Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC. 4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 "You serious about that Clark?" AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SOME VERY INTERESTING TRENDS ARE SEEN IN THEOPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEPERIOD BEGINS QUIET ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD SFC HIGHPRESSURE AIR MASS MOVING PAST TO THE N. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASSMAY CREATE PROBLEMS ONCE WE GET INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING...WITH REGARDSTO DEVELOPMENTS ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A SOLUTIONWHEREBY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANUPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROF NOW LOOKS LIKE ITWILL PICK UP/KICK OUT AN OLD WAVE THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WSWFLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMMENCE BY THE END OFTHE DAY FROM THE WEST...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREADS OVERHEAD INTOMONDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS IS HAPPENING ABOUT 6-12 HOURS EARLIER THANWHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE EARLIER THE PRECIP BEGINS...THE MORELIKELY IT WILL BE THAT THE DEPARTING COLD HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRYENOUGH AIR MASS AS TO LOCK IN AN IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITHTEMPS BELOW 32F OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA MONDAY EVENING.THE MODELS ARE ALSO MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...ALTHONOT YET SO MUCH FROM RUN-TO-RUN...WITH A MORE SRN TRACK FOR THE LOW.THAT KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE PTYPENOMOGRAM. AS PRECIP SPREADS UP FROM THE SW...THIS COULD MEAN APERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A WARMNOSE STRENGTHENS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO FORCE ACHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SW EARLY TUE MORNING.HOWEVER...THE PRECIP TYPE COULD BECOME A REAL MIXED BAG.EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OFTHE 30S ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES PAST...COLDER AIR WILL FILTERBACK IN FROM THE WEST...BUT FIRST AT LOW LEVELS. THIS COULD FORCE ACHANGEOVER BACK TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MTNS...AS THE MID LEVELCOLD AIR IS STILL SHOWN TO LAG BEHIND. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT PRECIPTYPES TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW POP EVEN E OF THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAYMORNING...WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS...IN CASEA DEFORMATION ZONE TRANSLATES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THEEVENT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT SOME NW FLOW SNOWPOTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE TN BORDER. FORNOW...HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE LIKELY CATEGORYBECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPES. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TOSPECULATE ABOUT PRECIP AMTS. READERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TOMANAGE THEIR EXPECTATIONS UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING PAST IN CLIPPER FASHION ONTHURSDAY. WILL CARRY ANOTHER SNOW CHC ON THE TN BORDER TO ACCT FORTHIS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMET is ZR hit for KCAE. Almost just like the Euro down here "snowfall map wise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet maps are out. It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's. It's a west to east tracking sfc low. 850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel. Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro. Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC. 4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. Thing. of. beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet maps are out. It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's. It's a west to east tracking sfc low. 850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel. Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro. Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC. 4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. How far down in NGA (I-20 range?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How far down in NGA (I-20 range?) Sfc temps pretty much stay below freezing the whole time from Columbia to Augusta. Atlanta is mostly below frz. 850s go above frz though thru N GA and N SC...so its snow to icy mix...or just icy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ukie looks darn close to its 0z run. Wnc crush job on the euro ensembles. Control is a big hit for most of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet maps are out. It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's. It's a west to east tracking sfc low. 850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel. Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro. Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC. 4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. I wonder if it leads the was some more. The SE trend will stop, probably a move NW down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I believe the record is -17 for Asheville from 1985 so that'll be interesting. Got my doubts because of snowpack bias, though. And -36 is the record for the mountains in general, heck we hit -12 last year in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sfc temps pretty much stay below freezing the whole time from Columbia to Augusta. Atlanta is mostly below frz. 850s go above frz though thru N GA and N SC...so its snow to icy mix...or just icy mix. Am I reading this correctly? It will be colder in Columbus to Augusta than in NE Georgia to say GSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Am I reading this correctly? It will be colder in Columbus to Augusta than in NE Georgia to say GSP? Sfc temps pretty much stay below freezing the whole time from Columbia to Augusta. Atlanta is mostly below frz. 850s go above frz though thru N GA and N SC...so its snow to icy mix...or just icy mix. 850s, Mid layers of atmosphere. Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. It's how we get IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Am I reading this correctly? It will be colder in Columbus to Augusta than in NE Georgia to say GSP? 850s above freezing while surface is below freezing, so that would be sleet/freezing rain versus snow further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z NAM starting to get within range. It would follow along with the other models (possible more with the GFS): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the Euro control run lines up well with the op, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro control snow map is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z NAM starting to get within range. It would follow along with the other models (possible more with the GFS): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model I thought it looked fine Falls, though that initial precip would likely fade out like the Euro with the main event later...Cold Rain would kill us for looking at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sweet! l09tz0L.jpg Wonderful spread on the placements. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ground temps being knocked down significantly ahead of the storm with the Sunday cold. Anything that falls will stay frozen or freeze. I like our chances across almost all of NC for accumulating snow from the first flake. (After the virga storm of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ground temps being knocked down significantly ahead of the storm with the Sunday cold. Anything that falls will stay frozen or freeze. I like our chances across almost all of NC for accumulating snow from the first flake. (After the virga storm of course) Surface temps look cold, too. It might be reminiscent of January 28th and February 12th last year in that regard with perfect accumulating conditions. Even sun angle is going to be meaningless with surface temps that cold. Of course, assuming this doesn't all fall apart, but I'm pretty confident we'll see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A little update on my end...Full video later. I think I might have an **IDEA** map out later as well. Just some possible kind of stuff. I will post it on FB first when up, so please like my page if you haven't Shameless plug...YES!! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sweet! l09tz0L.jpg Shift south 150 miles please. Thanks!! Hopefully overnight we get the GFS and EURO to make a more UK track. If that happens come tomorrow.....toot, toot, I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Compare loop from the model center valid at 96 hrs for the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sweet! l09tz0L.jpg 12z GEFS not far off lots of 1000mb lows off the coast (green) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GEFS not far off lots of 1000mb lows off the coast (green) Those that track through the FL panhandle/off the coast would make many in SC/GA very happy. Wish more people would use these types of maps for a good look at the different ensemble solutions for track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There's one SREF plume member from 15z that wants to drop significant snowfall as early as 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought it looked fine Falls, though that initial precip would likely fade out like the Euro with the main event later...Cold Rain would kill us for looking at the NAM Yeah what on earth are you guys doing? Put the NAM down immediately. Put the NAM down and back away slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah what on earth are you guys doing? Put the NAM down immediately. Put the NAM down and back away slowly. You leave for 5 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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