griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, thats a decent number! I added one more...6, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I dont know if you remember this event but December 2000 had this huge warm front that pushed CLT up to 62 degrees. The front never made it to Gastonia which remained in the 30's. Pretty cool event. largest I ever saw was a wedge we had in i think april where it was in the upper 80s in augusta, i think low 80s in columbia, and upper 30s here and mid 30s in greenwood/upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12Z GFS gives .26" of FZRN at hour 120 at KFQD... This is after a few hours of Snow. The FZRN is followed by rain. Wow, thats a decent number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This will be an interesting EURO run...to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I remember one instance where CAE was in the 60's with thunderstorms and CLT was 32 with freezing rain. One thing I'm really liking is the lower 10's and single digit dewpoints right before precip onset. Reminds me of the airmasses before some if the big frz rain sleet storms we got around here during the 95-96 winter. It will take a little more time to moisten the lower levels however. I also remember an event like that where my location had 27 and freezing rain, while Augusta GA was setting somewhere between 75-80. This was in 1994 I think. I'm not sure how warm Columbia got that day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On the contrary neighbor... It's not much but the gfs throws you a small bone lol GFS Model Run: 12Z FEB 12, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr 90hr 96hr 102hr 108hr 114hr 120hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1003.7 1002.5 1009.5 1014.2 1015.6 1016.1 1013.8 1012.8 1011.3 1007.1 1004.2 1007.4 1015.8 1017.4 1017.3 1018.2 1018.0 1016.5 1014.8 1012.6 1007.9 Mean SLP (mb): 1013.1 1011.7 1018.7 1023.8 1025.5 1025.4 1023.2 1022.5 1021.0 1016.6 1013.2 1016.7 1025.6 1027.2 1026.9 1028.0 1027.8 1026.2 1024.6 1022.2 1017.2 2m agl Tmp (F): 42.3 57.5 36.7 29.2 28.5 40.8 35.3 31.9 30.5 50.4 47.2 39.7 24.7 36.2 31.7 30.0 27.2 40.8 38.1 31.2 33.0 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 41.2 39.0 16.5 13.6 10.9 4.7 12.7 15.6 14.1 25.0 33.1 30.9 2.4 -3.0 3.0 1.0 -1.3 5.8 21.4 26.7 32.1 2m agl RH (%): 96 49 43 52 47 22 39 50 50 36 57 70 38 18 29 28 29 23 50 83 96 10m agl W Dir: 280 284 341 14 3 334 195 203 241 245 250 307 42 360 60 103 95 139 67 75 74 10m agl Spd(kt): 6 15 18 7 6 2 6 7 7 17 14 9 11 8 6 7 7 5 4 8 9 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.29 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.34 6hr CPrecip (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Precip H20 (in): 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 Sfc LI (C): 14.0 9.7 23.9 28.0 26.7 22.6 22.3 24.2 25.6 15.0 14.8 19.1 33.2 31.6 30.5 30.9 31.9 26.1 23.2 27.0 25.4 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.9 -1.3 -9.4 -0.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.6 -3.7 -1.9 -1.4 -1.8 2.9 -1.3 -5.1 -1.4 -2.8 0.3 -1.5 -2.2 -0.2 1.1 Thk1000-500mb(m)5513.2 5481.4 5418.1 5388.7 5342.7 5315.5 5347.0 5372.0 5405.0 5434.1 5476.6 5452.7 5390.3 5399.5 5413.8 5406.3 5405.9 5418.9 5433.5 5452.8 5481.8 Thk1000-850mb(m)1347.6 1334.0 1289.2 1270.6 1273.8 1279.8 1292.1 1295.7 1299.3 1316.5 1330.4 1305.2 1265.2 1269.6 1280.9 1275.1 1277.3 1289.0 1302.8 1311.6 1320.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1568.6 1561.5 1524.6 1534.7 1518.6 1505.6 1509.8 1520.5 1530.5 1549.2 1551.1 1552.0 1536.7 1535.9 1538.7 1545.4 1543.9 1543.9 1544.5 1547.6 1553.5 Apparent Tmp(F): 38 57 26 21 21 40 30 24 23 50 41 33 13 29 25 22 19 37 34 23 25 PType: SNOW FROZEN LIQUID Maybe Dr No will throw me a bone too Looking at the 12 GFS Ens members on ewall... 10-11 of 12 have wintry precip in NC. There are 6 members where the 850mb 0 deg doesn't get west of Charlotte That's pretty impressive at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the blocking over the top that is setting up is really helping... Great observation Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep in mind too this parameter is essentially the water equivalent of precip that woudl fall as frozen or freezing precip, not just snow THIS!!! Guys, when looking at maps especially with a track like this, keep in mind the snow is not all snow...you'd have to look at soundings and get an idea so don't go to town on snow map outputs for this system...this is has a lot of ZR potential for Raleigh and central NC verbatim...ptype is tricky here east of the mountains/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro is faster and colder aloft. Snowing over much of northern alabama with the 0c isotherm across central ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z euro is south and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yep Euro all light snow in NC at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 261 users reading this topic. 06z run went from rain in Raleigh to a decent look at snow on Thursday 12z run came out with huge ice storm in Raleigh and no to little snow on Thursday... all in one run. Look at the outputs from coolwx on ptype with caution, it's just going to change at 18z. Hard system to forecast and don't put all your eggs in one basket right now on any solution (rain, zr, or snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Continues at 108 with light snow over NC and the upstate Yep Euro all light snow in NC at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 colder at the surface. freezing temps from lagrange to augusta to columbia. maybe 1 or 2 inches through 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is super weak maybe 1 to 2 for NE GA to NC... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yep Euro all light snow in NC at 105This keeps up, we will have a miller A! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is super weak maybe 1 to 2 for NE GA to NC... Lol yep..looked really promising at first but it's much drier so far. Figures since it's colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's keying in more on the energy behind it... That could turn into something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is super weak maybe 1 to 2 for NE GA to NC... Lol Yeah, strange. There were two different waves. The first was weak and now the main event is coming at 123 but not sure the cold is going to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's keying in more on the energy behind it... That could turn into something big.A reapeat of last February storm? Little something on Tues, then main event on Wednesday ? 2/12/14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 light freezing rain over north ga at hour 120. Dry in the carolinas. precip finally breaking out again to the west. freezing line at the surface goes from roughly atlanta to athens to columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Freezing line jumps from the upstate to the middle of NC from 123-126 Yeah, strange. There were two different waves. The first was weak and now the main event is coming at 123 but not sure the cold is going to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's laughable how much the euro changes in one run. Hard to have any faith in this solution with no ensemble support, or support from any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro just looks weird to me. Could be because I'm on my phone. I want to see if the EPS gives it any weight gives NC a little snow then the second wave is bringing in ZR for NC only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is almost verbatim what the UKMET has been showing with the faster movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Light precip just barely making it into north carolina by hour 126..but it's over to all rain in north ga/upstate. pocket of upper 20s in north carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's laughable how much the euro changes in one run. Hard to have any faith in this solution with no ensemble support, or support from any other model. It's also laughable how much the GFS changes in one run, comparing the frames at the onset and after the system I'm just laughing..guidance has no clue right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow by 132 Euro is a catastrophic ice storm for a lot of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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