mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It took a noteworthy jog south from its 06z run, and matches with GFS Op trend from 06z to 12z...i.e. ridge out west is slightly more east (doesn't allow for quites as much amped ridging and warming in the southeast) and sfc high over the NE is slightly more west thru its progression It's also much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dont jinx me like that, chris! well if I end up getting screwed, you bet I will try Seriously though, with the precip amounts the canadian is spitting out I would welcome a change to rain instead of that being all ice. Not sure of the exact depth of the surface cold layer but Maybe you would end up being saved by sleet but the upstate for sure would be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I noticed on the 12z GGEM for the midlands of SC on hour 138, it has KCAE at 62, KCUB at 50 and 64 at KMMT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS Ens Mean - 06z on top, 12z on bottom - for Tues AM Only a small shift south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS Ens Mean - 06z on top, 12z on bottom - for Tues AM Wow! That's a big jump. The individual members should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At this point it looks like for N GA and Central SC we are going to need some help with low DPs and wet bulb stuff. Is that accurate? Keep the trends trending south if you're in those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It'll be interesting to see if the Euro can join in on the SE jog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's also much faster. I accidentally deleted my post, so thanks....faster is better, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I noticed on the 12z GGEM for the midlands of SC on hour 138, it has KCAE at 62, KCUB at 50 and 64 at KMMT. Yep it warms us quickly when the low goes directly overhead yay me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the blocking over the top that is setting up is really helping... I agree - and the more the noreaster strengthens the stronger the downstream blocking. If the trend continues, I would think this would continue to slow and strengthen the high pressure to the north of Tuesdays storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I noticed on the 12z GGEM for the midlands of SC on hour 138, it has KCAE at 62, KCUB at 50 and 64 at KMMT. That track is a recipe for disaster into the Upstate and most likely CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trend is great on the GFS, but I think it still doesn't get it done with it's track and how fast the high moves out so quick (for more than a mix to rain). The CMC (below) keeps the high in better wedgy placement to keep the storm going cold throughout, but it keeps the wedge although the high is gone too...which I'm not sure I believe. I'm also concerned that the UK ticked north on the last run. Still very skeptical of this storm. But if by tomorrow things continue to tick south and the High stays longer in the NE, then maybe we're looking at more than just a mix to rain deal in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yep it warms us quickly when the low goes directly overhead yay me!! I'm trying to figure out how exactly that would happen. CUB is SE of CAE yet stays colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Why Chris, Why would you curse us.. However, starting to look Tasty.... That's something I'll be watching closely. You nailed the Jan event last year imby, while I was expecting more ice than snow/ip. As it stands now(verbatim) mby is a chilly rain/warm rain/rnsn to end the 0z canadian had columbia sitting at 33 with a dp of 6 below zero at hour 120 based on soundings. (can't go further than that and haven't seen the 12z run yet). So I don't think there is a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain for a time where you are. That said, as jeremy just mentioned you might end up with a shot of severe weather before it's over LOL One thing I noticed on the 12z GGEM for the midlands of SC on hour 138, it has KCAE at 62, KCUB at 50 and 64 at KMMT. An incredible temperature gradient for sure by tuesday afternoon/night. Just south of columbia it's damn near 70 while just north of columbia it's still below freezing. About a degree per mile maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 . the 0z canadian had columbia sitting at 33 with a dp of 6 below zero at hour 120 based on soundings. (can't go further than that and haven't seen the 12z run yet). So I don't think there is a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain for a time where you are. That said, as jeremy just mentioned you might end up with a shot of severe weather before it's over LOL An incredible temperature gradient for sure by tuesday afternoon/night. Just south of columbia it's damn near 70 while just north of columbia it's still below freezing. About a degree per mile maybe? Camden is at 36, which is about 30 miles NE of CUB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 gefs snow mean is outrageous for nc/tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trend is great on the GFS, but I think it still doesn't get it done with it's track and how fast the high moves out so quick (for more than a mix to rain). The CMC (below) keeps the high in better wedgy placement to keep the storm going cold throughout, but it keeps the wedge although the high is gone too...which I'm not sure I believe. I'm also concerned that the UK ticked north on the last run. Still very skeptical of this storm. But if by tomorrow things continue to tick south and the High stays longer in the NE, then maybe we're looking at more than just a mix to rain deal in CLT. I sure would like to see the kind of storm that you aren't skeptical about. It would be a goodun. This is 3-4 days out, so yeah, this could go back well north for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing I noticed on the 12z GGEM for the midlands of SC on hour 138, it has KCAE at 62, KCUB at 50 and 64 at KMMT. I remember one instance where CAE was in the 60's with thunderstorms and CLT was 32 with freezing rain. One thing I'm really liking is the lower 10's and single digit dewpoints right before precip onset. Reminds me of the airmasses before some if the big frz rain sleet storms we got around here during the 95-96 winter. It will take a little more time to moisten the lower levels however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the 0z canadian had columbia sitting at 33 with a dp of 6 below zero at hour 120 based on soundings. (can't go further than that and haven't seen the 12z run yet). So I don't think it's all rain where you are for sure. That said, as jeremy just mentioned you might end up with a shot of severe weather before it's over..check out the surface temps LOL An incredible temperature gradient for sure by tuesday afternoon/night. Just south of columbia it's damn near 70 while just north of columbia it's still below freezing. About a degree per mile maybe? Exactly. And that temp pic shows the timeframe when the High has already scooted off the coast. But somehow that wedge is still strong. I don't buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Latest 12z GEFS really beefed up mean snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Latest 12z GEFS really beefed up mean snow totals big time, swath of 6-8" over the majority of nc. sc gets some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GEFS day 1-8 mean snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I sure would like to see the kind of storm that you aren't skeptical about. It would be a goodun. This is 3-4 days out, so yeah, this could go back well north for all we know. lol. I felt GREAT about the superbowl storm. Didn't work out so well. I thought that had a lot more going for it than this does....most likely I'm just wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep in mind too this parameter is essentially the water equivalent of precip that woudl fall as frozen or freezing precip, not just snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I remember one instance where CAE was in the 60's with thunderstorms and CLT was 32 with freezing rain. One thing I'm really liking is the lower 10's and single digit dewpoints right before precip onset. Reminds me of the airmasses before some if the big frz rain sleet storms we got around here during the 95-96 winter. It will take a little more time to moisten the lower levels however. I dont know if you remember this event but December 2000 had this huge warm front that pushed CLT up to 62 degrees. The front never made it to Gastonia which remained in the 30's. Pretty cool event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 the 0z canadian had columbia sitting at 33 with a dp of 6 below zero at hour 120 based on soundings. (can't go further than that and haven't seen the 12z run yet). So I don't think there is a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain for a time where you are. That said, as jeremy just mentioned you might end up with a shot of severe weather before it's over LOL An incredible temperature gradient for sure by tuesday afternoon/night. Just south of columbia it's damn near 70 while just north of columbia it's still below freezing. About a degree per mile maybe? I was looking at the gfs. The canadian is just a couple of degrees cooler at the onset with a much lower dp It would be the work of the portals, that mby would be in the 70's while 30 miles just to my north and west, frozen precip is falling....sigh I remember one instance where CAE was in the 60's with thunderstorms and CLT was 32 with freezing rain. One thing I'm really liking is the lower 10's and single digit dewpoints right before precip onset. Reminds me of the airmasses before some if the big frz rain sleet storms we got around here during the 95-96 winter. It will take a little more time to moisten the lower levels however. I do too....early 2000's and I'm thinking 04 or 05? Anywho....it's nice to see a bone being thrown out to the se peeps before winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was looking at the gfs. The canadian is just a couple of degrees cooler at the onset with a much lower dp It would be the work of the portals, that mby would be in the 70's while 30 miles just to my north and west, frozen precip is falling....sigh I do too....early 2000's and I'm thinking 04 or 05? Anywho....it's nice to see a bone being thrown out to the se peeps before winter is over On the contrary neighbor... It's not much but the gfs throws you a small bone lol GFS Model Run: 12Z FEB 12, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr 90hr 96hr 102hr 108hr 114hr 120hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1003.7 1002.5 1009.5 1014.2 1015.6 1016.1 1013.8 1012.8 1011.3 1007.1 1004.2 1007.4 1015.8 1017.4 1017.3 1018.2 1018.0 1016.5 1014.8 1012.6 1007.9 Mean SLP (mb): 1013.1 1011.7 1018.7 1023.8 1025.5 1025.4 1023.2 1022.5 1021.0 1016.6 1013.2 1016.7 1025.6 1027.2 1026.9 1028.0 1027.8 1026.2 1024.6 1022.2 1017.2 2m agl Tmp (F): 42.3 57.5 36.7 29.2 28.5 40.8 35.3 31.9 30.5 50.4 47.2 39.7 24.7 36.2 31.7 30.0 27.2 40.8 38.1 31.2 33.0 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 41.2 39.0 16.5 13.6 10.9 4.7 12.7 15.6 14.1 25.0 33.1 30.9 2.4 -3.0 3.0 1.0 -1.3 5.8 21.4 26.7 32.1 2m agl RH (%): 96 49 43 52 47 22 39 50 50 36 57 70 38 18 29 28 29 23 50 83 96 10m agl W Dir: 280 284 341 14 3 334 195 203 241 245 250 307 42 360 60 103 95 139 67 75 74 10m agl Spd(kt): 6 15 18 7 6 2 6 7 7 17 14 9 11 8 6 7 7 5 4 8 9 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.29 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.34 6hr CPrecip (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Precip H20 (in): 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 Sfc LI (C): 14.0 9.7 23.9 28.0 26.7 22.6 22.3 24.2 25.6 15.0 14.8 19.1 33.2 31.6 30.5 30.9 31.9 26.1 23.2 27.0 25.4 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.9 -1.3 -9.4 -0.1 -2.1 -2.6 -3.6 -3.7 -1.9 -1.4 -1.8 2.9 -1.3 -5.1 -1.4 -2.8 0.3 -1.5 -2.2 -0.2 1.1 Thk1000-500mb(m)5513.2 5481.4 5418.1 5388.7 5342.7 5315.5 5347.0 5372.0 5405.0 5434.1 5476.6 5452.7 5390.3 5399.5 5413.8 5406.3 5405.9 5418.9 5433.5 5452.8 5481.8 Thk1000-850mb(m)1347.6 1334.0 1289.2 1270.6 1273.8 1279.8 1292.1 1295.7 1299.3 1316.5 1330.4 1305.2 1265.2 1269.6 1280.9 1275.1 1277.3 1289.0 1302.8 1311.6 1320.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1568.6 1561.5 1524.6 1534.7 1518.6 1505.6 1509.8 1520.5 1530.5 1549.2 1551.1 1552.0 1536.7 1535.9 1538.7 1545.4 1543.9 1543.9 1544.5 1547.6 1553.5 Apparent Tmp(F): 38 57 26 21 21 40 30 24 23 50 41 33 13 29 25 22 19 37 34 23 25 PType: SNOW FROZEN LIQUID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looking at the 12 GFS Ens members on ewall... 10-11 of 12 have wintry precip in NC. There are 6 members where the 850mb 0 deg doesn't get west of Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looking at the 12 GFS Ens members on ewall... 10-11 of 12 have wintry precip in NC. There are 5 members where the 850mb 0 deg doesn't get west of Charlotte Wow, thats a decent number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was looking at the gfs. The canadian is just a couple of degrees cooler at the onset with a much lower dp It would be the work of the portals, that mby would be in the 70's while 30 miles just to my north and west, frozen precip is falling....sigh I do too....early 2000's and I'm thinking 04 or 05? Anywho....it's nice to see a bone being thrown out to the se peeps before winter is over 1/19/02 had a crazy temperature gradient. I was going to Charlotte that day and in Columbia it was 70 while in Fort Mill it was 33/32. We had ice in Concord that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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