Dunkman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It would take an act of god to shift this 100-150 miles south in the next 3-4 days. I think we can kiss this threat goodbye. Nice widespread winter storm though. If anything this may shift north a bit. I don't think this track is likely. It's kind of the middle ground between north and squished and I think either of those possibilities is more likely. Unfortunately neither of them do us much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't buy the GFS being so far north. Its trying to have to much southern energy to make the storm either stronger, or further north. If the euro comes north, maybe its possible...but this tells me that GFS is a bit too far north. This should slide further south given the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Im going to wait til 12z tomorrow to call it quits ive seen worse verify. Like Blue ridge said Nashville to Boone is unlikely. That HP out west is encouraging if your NW OF I-77 an along the I-40 corridor definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Although a shift south 100-200 miles 90 hrs out is not out of the question, neither is a shift north. It is something to watch over the next few model runs which is something we haven't had much of this winter so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looking at the way that trof is orientated at D7, I dont see a significant cold shot either. could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looking at the way that trof is orientated at D7, I dont see a significant cold shot either. could be wrong. And confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hmmm CMC has a 1036 sliding down into a 1028 high over the lakes @87 wonder if it can keep moving west and setup a nice CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CMC is a big hit for VA and NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can't see 2m or 850 temps on the CMC yet but it's gotta be close for most of NC to a snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can't see 2m or 850 temps on the CMC yet but it's gotta be close for most of NC to a snow profile. What time period is this? Thanks for the pbp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What time period is this? Thanks for the pbp! This would be for 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is not far off at 168. If the northern stream wave could dive a bit more, we'd get some phasing close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 78 on the Canadian, I have these temps at 850:CLT +3 GSO +2 RDU +2 HKY +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 78 on the Canadian, I have these temps at 850: CLT +3 GSO +2 RDU +2 HKY +2 So not horrible...but not there yet. CMC was a pretty jump from last night. I'm guessing 2m is somewhere like +5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 84, if you're along a line from Spartanburg to Monroe to Raleigh, you're -1 at 850. Surface temps are on fire though, from 44 to GSO to around 48 at GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like by 96 it gets blown all to hell here. +5 at 850 for CLT, temps around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 84, if you're along a line from Spartanburg to Monroe to Raleigh, you're -1 at 850. Surface temps are on fire though, from 44 to GSO to around 48 at GSP. Yikes...thought it would be closer just how it looked on the surface...there is a lot of WAA associated with it though so I should have known. 2/5 event misses us on the CMC but gives ATL a nice consultation prize of 1-2 inches with some energy behind it on 2/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is the winter of cold rain. So much.....cold rain. It looks to continue next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It would take an act of god to shift this 100-150 miles south in the next 3-4 days. I think we can kiss this threat goodbye. Nice widespread winter storm though. If anything this may shift north a bit. I wouldn't kiss anything goodbye based off the gfs 4 days out. Euro will be telling this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think each model has its own strengths in some areas and not so much in others (track,qpf,temps,ect) If we could accurately identify those varibles in witch they do well we could possibly get a more accurate forecast. Hope that didn't sound stupid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If you are west of 77 and north of 85 I would definitely not write off either event for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z GEFS has the low from west TN to southeast KY. Not an encouraging development, but will ride the euro till it folds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The models are playing catch-up here and seem to be converging toward an idea of a consolidated LP tracking further south and east than shown just 36 hours ago. There's still time, it seems, for this to shift to a favorable solution for at least some parts of NC, whether it be the northern tier/VA border counties or the western part of the state. Let's see what the EURO brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No LR arctic blast on the GEM this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is the winter of cold rain. So much.....cold rain. It looks to continue next week. Exactly to many what if. The models have not been right at all this year. It is going to take the perfect timing for us to get something this year. Never works out cold chasing moisture. Im sure something will pop out of gulf before March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro is stronger with the northern energy. Looks a lot like the GFS. Weak CAD @84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro is a big hit for NYC to Boston as well as northern VA and parts of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro does actually have some back end snow on this run for 2/2 for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Auto and gfs showing back end snow now, just not sure if that is cold chasing moisture or what...and we know how that usually turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Huge surge on temps on the Euro in eastern VA and NC. Went from mid 30s at 7am Monday to low 50s at the same time in one model cycle. Quite sure this ends up as an upper midatlantic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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