DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 hm, not sure if it will actually hit the ground but 12z at 9hr shows rain/snow showers over central/eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think there is too much agreement on the track , at this time, for a North trend, I feel like south trend a tick or two , is likely, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:33 PM, DopplerWx said: hm, not sure if it will actually hit the ground but 12z at 9hr shows rain/snow showers over central/eastern nc. High resolution NAM also back to showing some returns. Flurries would be nice. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_009_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_reflectivity&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS looks a little better to me so far out west. Baja low is a little further east and northern stream energy entering the stovepipe in Idaho is a little east of 06z (Pac ridge slightly east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 precip looks faster thru 93hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So far the 12z gfs is looking a little better. Our HP to the north is not sliding east as fast. Therefore colder temps. Precip appears further south also. Well see where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 lol GFS is night and day different. Way more suppressed vs. 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 tenn looks good thru 99hr, snow for the majority of the state. precip is a tad further south and a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run is going to be good for someone. Here is the diff...00z had low trekking through the middle of AR....12z has it through the middle of LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the moisture would hurry up this could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Our HP is holding on nicely out to 105 hrs with the system suppressed and sliding eastward. Likey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:40 PM, mackerel_sky said: I think there is too much agreement on the track , at this time, for a North trend, I feel like south trend a tick or two , is likely, IMOBingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 moisture is a good 9-12 hrs quicker it seems thru 105. good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 @120 big hit for WNC. Verbatim it would big a big mix of sleet and snow....dynamic cooling would probably argue all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:09 PM, burgertime said: @120 big hit for WNC. Verbatim it would big a big mix of sleet and snow....dynamic cooling would probably argue all snow. yep, northern half of nc looks snow/mix and northern sc looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Jackpots shetley, he'll need a shelter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought we wouldn't see this on the runs until Saturday but I think there is a real chance this becomes an I-85 special. I would shift the 4 inch amounts a little east of CLT to a little east of GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still need to get this a little further SE but this is a nice step in the right direction. There's still plenty of time for it to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This was a lot better run. Good hit for WNC. We need this type of track w/ the speed of the Ukie. If that happened it be a good hit for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:10 PM, DopplerWx said: yep, northern half of nc looks snow/mix and northern sc looks icy. I wouldn't be too worried about temps on here....the overall look screams to me that there will be a lot of dynamic cooling at the least. WAA isn't crazy so if we keep this trend NC is going to be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run looks great for us N of I-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:12 PM, rduwx said: This was a lot better run. Good hit for WNC. We need this type of track w/ the speed of the Ukie. If that happened it be a good hit for a lot of people. Hard to believe we've seen this much of a south trend really...let's keep it going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big shift south. And some backside snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good way to start the day huge shift south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 good thing is we are seeing the changes we need in the onset of the system already within 90 hrs or so. and compared to 06z gfs run it had the rn/sn line in central va around 138hr, now on 12z it has it along 1-85 thru central nc. big shift in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:13 PM, griteater said: Hard to believe we've seen this much of a south trend really...let's keep it going I agree grit...I really didn't think it would shift this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Where are you guys getting info past 120? I'm stuck on 90 with Tropical Tidbits and 84 on Wx Bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:15 PM, Jonathan said: Where are you guys getting info past 120? I'm stuck on 90 with Tropical Tidbits and 84 on Wx Bell. I'm on instant weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago 12z GFS still waits till Tuesday morning to bring in precip, but further south track more wintry precip for NE GA/Upstate SC, NC piedmont Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago It also shows temps only get to 32 from CLT to RDU for duration of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:15 PM, Jonathan said: Where are you guys getting info past 120? I'm stuck on 90 with Tropical Tidbits and 84 on Wx Bell. AmWx Model Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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