superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here comes the ice Looks like we probably start out with some accumulating snow, then go over to some ice, then rain, per the 00z GFS. At this point, I'd take it... I hate seeing rain fall on snow, but we can't be picky this winter. It seems a bit peculiar that the GFS drives the LP right into the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like we probably start out with some accumulating snow, then go over to some ice, then rain, per the 00z GFS. At this point, I'd take it... I hate seeing rain fall on snow, but we can't be picky this winter. I think taking a blend of all the models from today so far, for those west of 77 in NC its snow to sleet/fzra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs is same as 18z. Might have enough separation for the follow up wave. I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will take all of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think taking a blend of all the models from today so far, for those west of 77 in NC its snow to sleet/fzra. It looks like every model has us in the NW Piedmont and foothills going over to rain at some point (sans the Ukie). I just hope for some front-end winnage. Then again, I guess we can hug the UKMET and it's uber-cold solution at the surface. All four major models have significant storms at the moment (though the GFS' event being significant might be a stretch, but it's a good .2" of frozen precip at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No thanks. Rain on top of frozen precip stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No way the LP goes straight into the CAD. That, you can bank on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Get the worst runs from the gfs and it's still warning criteria. No way switch to rain in th as t scenerio, dps are below 0 when moisture and wetbulb in begins. Monumental mountain to climb to get above freezing. But we can discuss that in a few day if neccesary provided the gfs is correct, which it aint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Get the worst runs from the gfs and it's still warning criteria. No way switch to rain in th as t scenerio, dps are below 0 when moisture and wetbulb in begins. Monumental mountain to climb to get above freezing. But we can discuss that in a few day if neccesary provided the gfs is correct, which it aint. I agree with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GEM is starting up. Let's hope it looks better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z UKMET appears to have more-or-less held, based on the early maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What is interesting to me is, that the Drunk DOC is weaker and further south a bit, ie more wintry....and the GFS is more amped and further north. That is sending HUGE red flags IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z UKMET appears to have more-or-less held, based on the early maps. I have said this MANY times...The UKIE can be a BIG indicator to what the drunk doc may do. NOT always tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have said this MANY times...The UKIE can be a BIG indicator to what the drunk doc may do. NOT always tho. It certainly isn't amped up. Hard to tell much, though. EDIT: Someone on another forum was less lazy than I and flipped it, so I'll post that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z UKMET appears to have more-or-less held, based on the early maps. It's a little more suppressed than its previous run at 12z...so good trends there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At 00z Tues, sfc high is over the eastern Great Lakes on UKMet, while GFS has it in NE NC...so it's retreating off the coast faster on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ice storm incoming per 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Someone cue the Vanilla Ice for the CMC because it looks icy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ZR amounts: .10 CAE, CLT. .30-.50 around Northern GA, Upstate SC, even ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Someone cue the Vanilla Ice for the CMC because it looks icy! Looks really icy in our parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z GGEM is definitely coming in colder on the front-end. Looks primed for a front-end thump of snow for NC (maybe an inch or two) and it's setting up for a nice ice storm in the CAD regions of NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 WNC? Areas of .25 around the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks really icy in our parts Yeah, a good thump on zr before rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was well said by someone else today, it's harder to thread the needle for a miss on this one than a hit. How Rare AND How true. Ukie has hp in souther canada, GL region. Canadian has it in PA. And All progressive GFS has it exiting NE NC. Good job of catching grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 More sleet your way james? The Model Center's P-type algorithm spits out 1-2" of snow, 0.25-0.5" of sleet, and 0.5-0.75" of ZR. We're still barely holding onto 31ish degree temps at hr 144 (as far as I have), so it will probably go over to rain afterwards. EDIT: Actually, the wedge goes into beast-mode and we mostly hold onto sub-freezing temps through hr 150, with 0.75-1" of ZR falling. Portions of NW SC are the bullseye with ~1.25" of ZR. I-85 is a warzone. Big ZR storm basically from Chapel Hill to CLT N/W into NW SC. The foothills look to have more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well damn, my #s will be off. More ZR on the way on further frames. I'm sure someone will get that posted up for you guys. The big 1.25 ZR # has shifted to the upstate though. KCAE with a glaze mainly. Upstate sees no snow per say, but sleet & ZR. NE GA, W NC/Central, Upstate SC bullseye for the ice storm part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How do the mountain areas do in regards to snow per the latest gem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How do the mountain areas do in regards to snow per the latest gem? Generally around 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC Frz Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Generally around 4-5 inches. Nice. Thanks buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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