franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ukie is slowly coming out on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ukie is weak and very far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The UKMET is a great hit for you guys in northern GA and the Carolinas. with the exception of the mountains (sorry Franklin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z UKMET is a big hit for CAE, ATL + many others with more precip to follow past 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The UKMET is a great hit for you guys in northern GA and the Carolinas. with the exception of the mountains (sorry Franklin) lol.. let's keep it where it is, I'm sure it's too far south. The correct solution is something stronger that turns to rain like the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Eps low cluster is a huge shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol.. let's keep it where it is, I'm sure it's too far south. The correct solution is something stronger that turns to rain like the euro ensembles. I was just messing with you. There is still quite a bit of precip to come through post 144 with what looks like a secondary wave back in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Probably turns to rain at some point, but the chances of a front end thump have gone up this afternoon instead of down, which is a very good thing................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That would make many of us really happy. Funny thing is this would be a snow flurry to the Boston folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That would make many of us really happy. Funny thing is this would be a snow flurry to the Boston folks. I posted the precip still yet to come after that map in the TN forum btw if you guys want to check it out. I can also tell you the surface temps are crazy wedged in at 144 with upper 20s in northeast GA, and mid to upper 20's in much of SC, and YIKES, mostly mid 20's in much of NC, upper teens and low 20's in the mountains!! I must have clicked on a different hour. The 2 meter temps in NC at hour 144 are in the upper teens north to lower 20s for MOST of the state. Pretty crazy with that slug of moisture just to your west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GFS back to maybe showing some flurry action from Raleigh eastward this Friday. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_027_precip_p03.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p03&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_030_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Glad to see Bastardi on board with my way of thinking for 2/13-2/20 +++. Now Macks turn to get on board, then pack. I've got plenty of room boys, don't be ashamed and get out of your comfort zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can't find the UKMET on Wxbell for some reason... Any help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That would make many of us really happy. Funny thing is this would be a snow flurry to the Boston folks. There is still plenty of precip to go.... that's just when the run ends at 144. Lots more precip upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z is much farther south. Let's get a blend of the euro and ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Throw a bone to the weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GFS back to maybe showing some flurry action from Raleigh eastward this Friday. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_027_precip_p03.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p03&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_030_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Looks even better for Thursday 2/19. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_174_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=174&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=1 *Disclaimer - it IS the 18z, and it IS a week out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That was a painful GFS run... No 2/19 storm. Completely disappeared. No one can say it definitely won't come back though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Best EPS run of the season here. 51/51 members deliver the goods with most of them at least moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I know it's inconsequential for most of us on the run, but the 18z GFS' LP was way S/E of the solution it had at 12z. It also means that the CAD regions like here get a solid 0.1-0.2" ZR before going over to rain. EDIT: Looks like snow to start on the 18z GFS, actually, then ZR, then RN. The UKMET looks good, so let's go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Best EPS run of the season here. 51/51 members deliver the goods with most of them at least moderate. What does the eps look like for clt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I know it's inconsequential for us on the run, but the 18z GFS' LP was way S/E of the solution it had at 12z. The UKMET looks good, so let's go with that. I would look for that SE trend to continue on the GFS eventually falling in line with other guidance. Maybe we will have some sort of agreement by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I know it's inconsequential for most of us on the run, but the 18z GFS' LP was way S/E of the solution it had at 12z. It also means that the CAD regions like here get a solid 0.1-0.2" ZR before going over to rain. EDIT: Looks like snow to start on the 18z GFS, actually, then ZR, then RN. The UKMET looks good, so let's go with that. Has the UKMET (so far) been the most stable of all of the runs though? I just took a look at 850mb temps per 12z UKMET. Uh oh. Warm for a LOT of us. Could be a ZR storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So that Ukmet clown "snow" is really mainly ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What does the eps look like for clt?I posted it up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Has the UKMET (so far) been the most stable of all of the runs though? I just took a look at 850mb temps per 12z UKMET. Uh oh. Warm for a LOT of us. Could be a ZR storm for many. yeah its really only snow to start for the mtns. Including the north Ga mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So that Ukmet clown "snow" is really mainly ZR? At least for KCAE from the hi-res maps... it goes from light snow to ip to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GEFS is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So, it looks like Ukmet is producing about 0.5" of ZR for many I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So, it looks like Ukmet is producing about 0.5" of ZR for many I guess. Can't exactly say. We don't have the best maps at all. NC is definitely cold enough for snow until it starts turning up the coast. I'm not even sure what's going on behind when the precip really blows up in AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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