Lookout Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Gotta love how the GGEM just drives that surface low through the strong wedge east of the APPS. A wedge of that strength isn't going anywhere at least as fast as the model breaks it down. Most likely that inland low would weaken then jump to the coast. Not saying the huge icestorm the model shows will be correct, just pointing out a major error in the meteorology of the model. It's going to be interesting to see what happens IF there is a system because despite the models being less aggressive with that second cold shot, they are still very bullish on extremely low dewpoints ahead of that system. The 0z canadian for example at temps already at freezing with dewpoints of around 0 or even slightly below zero right before precip starts. So wetbulbs would be down in the mid 20s at the time of onset. It shows quite a bit of warming despite this. Waiting on what the 12z run shows. The 06z gfs has one of the more extreme erosion of cold and dry air I can really ever recall in a 6 hour period. The -6z run has surface temps in the upper 20s with dewpoints in the single digits to near 0 just a couple of hours before onset of precip and in the span of 6 hours, the temp goes to 36 over 34. So not only do temps rise, they do so with dewpoints jumping 30 degrees. And even more extreme is that it is that dry and cold not just at the surface but the entire boundary layer which doesn't support such an extreme jump. So either there is a warm front from hell or it's wrong. Haven't looked at the 12z run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I said this yesterday, but if the preceding airmass is as intensely cold and dry as the models are showing, a low pressure is not going to track up the apps or up I-95. The primary will fill and a secondary will form off the coast somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I said this yesterday, but if the preceding airmass is as intensely cold and dry as the models are showing, a low pressure is not going to track up the apps or up I-95. The primary will fill and a secondary will form off the coast somewhere. I guess we'll have to see how cold it really gets Sunday. Either the low is still going to track that way somehow despite the intense cold, or it's not going to be as cold as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll thought the GFS was a perfect example of trying to send a storm into an arctic air mass but due to the simple physics it keeps deferring to additional low-pressure development off to the south and east. I think in reality what you will end up having is a system that's going to cut through the Midsouth and then up the Apps...and even that could be in question. In my opinion that kind of scenario would favor some kind of snow to ice scenario in North Carolina on Tuesday. The models right now just do not have a clue it all about the airmass that will lingering above us and just to our north. The GFS is going to struggle with this until at least Friday or Saturday. We will have to end up using the short range models eventually to try to nail the track of Tuesday's event. If you are living in western North Carolina or upstate South Carolina this could be the best setup for winter weather that we have seen all season +1 Its still 5+ days out. I think it will cut. But ill gladly eat my words. But im not nailing the coffin either. I know the seasonal trend is "cutters". But without any blocking, i just dont see it. Yes i know its possible, several have proved there point, but the years we got snows with no -NAO "other variables" were in play that we dont have this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I said this yesterday, but if the preceding airmass is as intensely cold and dry as the models are showing, a low pressure is not going to track up the apps or up I-95. The primary will fill and a secondary will form off the coast somewhere. I agree, we need to see how the models handle the possible CAD setup. Insitu CAD(with suck low dew points) could also do the damage. The Euro from yesterday actually looked realistic. If anything, I would think we would at least receive a little more front end mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 canadian has widespread freezing temps when precip starts with 0.25 to maybe a half inch of freezing rain but 12 hours later temps have jumped to the 50s over north ga/upstate. If that warming is delayed even by 6 hours, icing would be a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I said this yesterday, but if the preceding airmass is as intensely cold and dry as the models are showing, a low pressure is not going to track up the apps or up I-95. The primary will fill and a secondary will form off the coast somewhere.in this case tho its so amped up in the west that it floods the Tennessee valley with warm and and then proceeds to send the surface low behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Gotta love how the GGEM just drives that surface low through the strong wedge east of the APPS. A wedge of that strength isn't going anywhere at least as fast as the model breaks it down. Most likely that inland low would weaken then jump to the coast. Not saying the huge icestorm the model shows will be correct, just pointing out a major error in the meteorology of the model. Yeah, you'd expect more of a Miller B look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll thought the GFS was a perfect example of trying to send a storm into an arctic air mass but due to the simple physics it keeps deferring to additional low-pressure development off to the south and east. I think in reality what you will end up having is a system that's going to cut through the Midsouth and then up the Apps...and even that could be in question. In my opinion that kind of scenario would favor some kind of snow to ice scenario in North Carolina on Tuesday. The models right now just do not have a clue it all about the airmass that will lingering above us and just to our north. The GFS is going to struggle with this until at least Friday or Saturday. We will have to end up using the short range models eventually to try to nail the track of Tuesday's event. If you are living in western North Carolina or upstate South Carolina this could be the best setup for winter weather that we have seen all season The models are the reason we know the cold is coming. I'm confident that they know how cold this airmass will be better than we do. There doesn't seem to be any reason to believe the models are underestimating the airmass. If anything they have all backed off a touch on the severity they showed earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a wintry mess for NC snow in the north ZR in the south and a mix in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro looks less amped compared to last night. Probably will be better than last night and not as good as 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 canadian has widespread freezing temps when precip starts with 0.25 to maybe a half inch of freezing rain but 12 hours later temps have jumped to the 50s over north ga/upstate. If that warming is delayed even by 6 hours, icing would be a lot worse. My rule of thumb here in North Carolina is to add 12-18 hours to when the model breaks down CAD. Maybe even more if its a really strong event. You are closer to the edges so its probably not as long. I think the GGEM starts the precip a little earlier than the other models also which is why it has more significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a wintry mess for NC snow in the north ZR in the south and a mix in the middle Well, then. Time to party again until 00z? Flippidy-flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a wintry mess for NC snow in the north ZR in the south and a mix in the middle For what time period? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For what time period? Thanks! Starting at 138 or Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a good thump of snow to start then over to sleet freezing rain. Northern stream coming in to suppress the ejecting wave out of the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This thing might still throw us a bone. I agree that the more southern track would be preferred. Still sticking with my earlier thoughts of snow north of I-40 and a mix south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Flooding rains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a good thump of snow to start then over to sleet freezing rain. Northern stream coming in to suppress the ejecting wave out of the sw. Looks like 6-8" for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This thing might still throw us a bone. I agree that the more southern track would be preferred. Still sticking with my earlier thoughts of snow north of I-40 and a mix south of there.low is going through sw Virginia. Man, the euro is all over the map with different solutions. Throw enough crap at the wall and eventually something will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is a good thump of snow to start then over to sleet freezing rain. Northern stream coming in to suppress the ejecting wave out of the sw. all hail king Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 all hail king Eurowhich solution? It has huge changes from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So it looks like the goofus is on an island by itself. That's what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cold rain in KCAE on 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 which solution? It has huge changes from run to run. The Euro is moving towards the correct solution now. Trust the Euro over the GFS, you will be on the right side of history more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Center of LP starts running up the Apps, reforms NE of Charlotte, and then runs due East off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's a decent storm for areas west of 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm interested in two things one, as has been discussed how strong can that wedge be. That's going to be the first key to this. The second is what the models are showing at 5h. 6z I felt was a solution we would be rooting for if you have a weak wedge. Good phasing on the back side. The Euro was really close to a big phased out system on the front with that cutoff in the SW...it ten brings in energy on the back side but doesn't quite get it done like the 6z showed. 12z was close as well. Didn't get to see the UK model as it does well with phasing. Don't be shocked if by Saturday we start seeing a more wintry solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro is moving towards the correct solution now. Trust the Euro over the GFS, you will be on the right side of history more times than not. Agree twice. The Euro is showing snow twice for the north Georgia area, Tuesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cold rain in KCAE on 12z Euro. I think you may take that right now as opposed to ZR. I would much rather have a cold rain than ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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