superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 VERY close to snow for all of NC 2m a bit warm, but looks like 35-38 degree range. 850/s are 0 to -2c from RDU and get colder westward...might turn into something nice folks. Yeah, I have to wonder if the Euro might be overdoing the surface temperatures, though I might just be wishcasting. Not to worry, though, because it will all be different in another 12 hours on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I stay 10 miles away from the 32 degree line throughout the event lolz. This one was close for at least the VA/NC border counties. Better than a cutter, I guess? Your area is kind of in a precip minima on this run with the heavier precip from the southern portion not really making it north of I-40 while the northern portion mostly misses your area to the north. Of course, it will all be different at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, I have to wonder if the Euro might be overdoing the surface temperatures, though I might just be wishcasting. Not to worry, though, because it will all be different in another 12 hours on the next run. I could see that easily especially with all the snowpack to our north and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro was actually warmer than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro was actually warmer than the 12z run. Correct, but it had a lot more precip, which the 12z run sorely lacked. Pretty cold on the 00z Euro during the latter half of the run, but not a real snowy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 While it's encouraging the models keep trending closer without that high getting in faster and sticking around we are stuck in a situation where if it's suppressed we don't have enough moisture to work with. If it's wound up there is too much WAA around. One good thing, it seems with every run of the GEFS it gets colder for the Carolinas. Another annoyance is that the models can't seem to hold on to one solution after the storm for more than one run. We've gone from torch to deep freeze to seasonal in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Here ya go... Thanks Burger. Just a *slight* but of spread. . The general trough/ridge placement looks pretty good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 6z GFS, the Thusday storm is plenty cold , but way suppressed , precip barely gets above SAV. But that's right where we want it now , and only 7 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow great trends overnight for TN/VA and points north. Northern NC is still by far in the game. I could be completely off by saying this however I feel as though the trends this year have been different than years past whereas the storms would usually trend northwest in the 4-5 day timeframe. This year it seems they are all trending southeast in the same timeframe. I have a really good feeling about this one the closer it comes to range for a lot of people on here. Let's get it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Cut a degree off the euro and it helps most of NC. Well within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Cut a degree off the euro and it helps most of NC. Well within reason. how does the qpf look on the euro? i dont have access to the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 how does the qpf look on the euro? i dont have access to the maps. Around this end of the state, we were close to three tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 FWIW, the 12z NAM ends up with a low over Nashville. Earlier in the run (around hour 60), it appears to want to split the energy into two pieces, part in TX and another part a couple of hundred miles north in the plains. However by the end, it consolidates into one piece. I don't think we know right now which piece might be more dominant, or if the energy might stay consolidated. A stronger high would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HP to the north seems to be pushing more and more. Almost becoming a banana HP. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 HP to the north seems to be pushing more and more. Almost becoming a banana HP. TW Definitely has a CAD signature (850s actually drop south as the storm moves closer) : http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yea I was just gonna say haven't had a chance to look at the NAM which personally is too far out however hearing the word banana high is definitely encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys...lol the 84 hr NAM is terrible. The 1 hr NAM is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys...lol the 84 hr NAM is terrible. The 1 hr NAM is terrible. Your right but the NAM did see the change from yesterday before the other models. **but it could have just got lucky this time. I don't expect it to become the model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Your right but the NAM did see the change from yesterday before the other models. **but it could have just got lucky this time. I don't expect it to become the model of choice. GFS rolling...kind of agrees with the NAM. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 gfs holds serve thru 84, lp still too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 backend snow for northern nc thru 102, identical to 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 gfs holds serve thru 84, lp still too far north. Nashville to Boone haha. Seriously doubt that happens. But we shall see. Considering the GFS had this as a lakes cutter not too long ago and where it is now, nice south trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS rolling...kind of agrees with the NAM. Haha! NAM still has more of the CAD: NAM at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 GFS at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM still has more of the CAD: NAM at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 GFS at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Yeah...I suspect if that low rolls right through the heart of TN and NC, that CAD will get blasted out. That said, I doubt that it'll happen that way, like Blue Ridge said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 138, the second piece is finally emerging from Mehico and is going to come out ahead of the cold air...of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is so close to a big snow for NC it's almost rage inducing for 2/5 2/6. Cold air and moisture coming in at around the same time with the cold air being maybe three hours late. We'll see as I'm only out to 162 but I think our energy isn't going to be able to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It would take an act of god to shift this 100-150 miles south in the next 3-4 days. I think we can kiss this threat goodbye. Nice widespread winter storm though. If anything this may shift north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 138, the second piece is finally emerging from Mehico and is going to come out ahead of the cold air...of course. It's so damn close on this run. If one of them is off by three hours or so it's a totally different setup. Of course if the energy is faster it's a big cold rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's so damn close on this run. If one of them is off by three hours or so it's a totally different setup. Of course if the energy is faster it's a big cold rain storm. Way too much northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS probably has just enough moisture hanging around to give RDU some snow showers and eastern sections a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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