Southern Track Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 6z gfs was a perfect scenario for a lot of us in the SE. The ridge out west looked good and the trough axis went negative at the perfect time. There are different ways for some of us to get snow out of the setup being shown but we need it to happen exactly like the 6z gfs for a big dog!Completely agree. That trailing piece of energy has been showing up on the previous GFS runs but it just dries up. The 6z is juicier due to a two branch phase I believe.Without any blocking, we need a situation where a storm system is right in the heels of another before cold air erodes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Still pumped for the week of 2/13- 2/20 for triad area. Nice artic plunge starts tommorrow and keeps us well below normal for a long time. That's a given. Then it looks like ice mix coming Tuesday, with the potential for a bigger deal right behind it for late wed/ thurs. Even if Tuesday wave cuts, we are gonna see a front end thump of frzng precip. May change over to 33 degree rain after a couple hours who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I still have to run with the king here...ensemble mean is getting figured out and still west. Still, though, a handful (19ish/50) give the SE, especially the foothills, a pretty decent event...Still worth watching but we have to get lucky here. The members that do show big events over the SE and central NC are Miller-A type systems with a gulf tap and a sub 1001-1000mb storm off the coast with some perfect tracks with a very stout wedge in place. That's what I mean by lucky. Anyway, I think we have a slim chance as long as we keep seeing a handful of members with other solutions, but I wouldn't go to Vegas with it. Edit: Talking about the Tuesday storm here, the big snow producers I thought was the Tuesday storm is actually the trailing Thursday storm, hard to differentiate on means when these systems are so close. Now with that said, I'd definitely write off the Tuesday system, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I still have to run with the king here...ensemble mean is getting figured out and still west. Still, though, a handful (19ish/50) give the SE, especially the foothills, a pretty decent event...Still worth watching but we have to get lucky here. The members that do show big events over the SE and central NC are Miller-A type systems with a gulf tap and a sub 1001-1000mb storm off the coast with some perfect tracks with a very stout wedge in place. That's what I mean by lucky. Anyway, I think we have a slim chance as long as we keep seeing a handful of members with other solutions, but I wouldn't go to Vegas with it. You talking Tuesday storm only? How bout the trailing/Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You talking Tuesday storm only? How bout the trailing/Thursday storm? He's talking the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You talking Tuesday storm only? How bout the trailing/Thursday storm? Sorry, I guess what I'm seeing as the big snow producers is, in fact, the trailing storm, but I was talking about the Tuesday storm in my post. Whether or not that second storm even materializes is up for debate...when I was looking at the means after the Tuesday storm the cold just takes over, there are some members in the middle of highs giving us snow, and others off the coast. What we'd hope for obviously for the second one is a bomb, otherwise the air would just be too dry and suppress the system as I'm sure many know. These systems are way too close for the models to figure out the second one any time soon but I think the first is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 6z gfs was a perfect scenario for a lot of us in the SE. The ridge out west looked good and the trough axis went negative at the perfect time. There are different ways for some of us to get snow out of the setup being shown but we need it to happen exactly like the 6z gfs for a big dog! Edit: I'm talking about the 2/19 storm above. I still believe the 2/17 storm will cut. Just getting around to looking at the GFS, the 6z solution...the track, cold, and strength of the low is perfect for RDU and east, and all of NC basically. Clown map has 12-17" in the coastal plains. I hate being in the bulls eye this far out, amazing look...I think the Euro EPS members had similar looks in fact I'm almost positive (I talked about it in an above post)...all-in or bust on the mid-late week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just getting around to looking at the GFS, the 6z solution...the track, cold, and strength of the low is perfect for RDU and east, and all of NC basically. Clown map has 12-17" in the coastal plains. I hate being in the bulls eye this far out, amazing look...I think the Euro EPS members had similar looks in fact I'm almost positive (I talked about it in an above post)...all-in or bust on the mid-late week system. Yeah, I'd be surprised to see that again on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cold is coming in stronger and faster at 75. 1050mb high at the border. Could mean a lot for the Tues system not saying just saying, might allow the second high to funnel in faster aka no cut. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston is getting drilled on the 12Z GFS by the weekend system.. wow...just wow, there really aren't words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston is getting drilled on the 12Z GFS by the weekend system.. wow...just wow, there really aren't words... yeah that's incredible...977mb low on top of Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston is getting drilled on the 12Z GFS by the weekend system.. wow...just wow, there really aren't words... It's really not all that bad for them snow wise. Just another 4-6 type event, unless you count the wind, then that would help with the "drillage" factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 new solution Plains blizzard..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looking at early panels of the 12z gfs the Tuesday system is going to cut imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's really not all that bad for them snow wise. Just another 4-6 type event, unless you count the wind, then that would help with the "drillage" factor. Yeah, not bad amount wise but the winds will be pretty bad, along with this string of winter storms for them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston is getting drilled on the 12Z GFS by the weekend system.. wow...just wow, there really aren't words... i would say isn't our turn, hell they get a snowstorm every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looking at early panels of the 12z gfs the Tuesday system is going to cut imo. Yeah, that high looks better, coming in faster but not fast enough. The parade of highs needs to speed up for the Tues system. The difference in the location of the high from 00z to the 12z is insane at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 new solution Plains blizzard..... LP is located pretty close to 6Z. Not really a new solution, just more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The LP center is much further SW than the previous run at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The LP center is much further SW than the previous run at hour 144. Yes, with the energy in Texas attached to it. Kind of like the Canadian yesterday. It might be one long duration event with all precip types in play. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Much colder high into central US, some folks in the SE could get some backend snow with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12Z GFS: Looks like no 2nd piece of energy trailing behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cutter, and it's probably not going to have the following storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cutter, and it's probably not going to have the following storm either. yeah the high is just going to squash anything that is remotely following this system, it's ok it's only one run right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 hard to believe this run...is that 1040 high going all the way to Mexico? 1041 over central Texas at 171hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seems like the GFS is taking turns with good and bad runs. It has been back and forth the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GFS is a garbage model, wait for King Euro to speak on this subject... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GFS is a garbage model, wait for King Euro to speak on this subject... 850mb line going to Mexico City might actually make it to Belize or Cancun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Of course I get busy at work right when the 12z is running. Like Jon said, we need the high to be quicker so the Tuesday storm doesn't cut. Hard to believe we get a cutter in between to strong HP's. With the strength of the second HP, it's going to squash anything south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 177-186hrs some backside cancellation flakes for NC. That second high is just way too south for me to believe but we'll see the means I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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