rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z euro is north and west of previous run. No snow for the SE on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 cutter peanut butter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm sure I'll wake up with tons of "its just one run" "ggem is prob handling this better" "its 6 days away it will change".The main idea today was definitely a cutter. Even the GGEM Ensembles tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro is a cutter. Great run-to-run consistency from the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm sure I'll wake up with tons of "its just one run" "ggem is prob handling this better" "its 6 days away it will change". The main idea today was definitely a cutter. Even the GGEM Ensembles tonight. yep Dr.No, is still alive!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 00z EPS mean snowfall looks about the same as the 12z run. Might be a tad better. Probably the highest I've seen it at this range so far this winter, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, how about waking up to a modeled classic, widespread SE Miller A major SN for many 2/18-19 on the 6Z GFS fwiw. I realize this is mainly for entertainment and will be different next run, but it shows the great potential there is in this pattern and with us being in a weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, how about waking up to a modeled classic, widespread SE Miller A major SN for many 2/18-19 on the 6Z GFS fwiw. I realize this is mainly for entertainment and will be different next run, but it shows the great potential there is in this pattern and with us being in a weak Nino. Just saw that. Would be a significant to major hit for many on this board. But here is another 7/8 fantasy solution. If the models react as they have with every other fantasy event, this will be gone before day 5 (out). **The models really have been bad this year. We all realize that an individual day 7 solution can easily not work out; but when you start taking many day 7 snow/ice solutions not working out statistically it gets harder for one not to work out. This just points out that the models have a problem of not handling the pattern blocking. Just for entertainment (again): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I had posted before that without blocking our best hope would be a follow up wave behind a cutter. The gfs shows this. Also the ukie has a solution close to the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I had posted before that without blocking our best hope would be a follow up wave behind a cutter. The gfs shows this. Also the ukie has a solution close to the cmc. Folks, As I've mentioned, we don't need a sustained -NAO or a sustained -AO for a decent shot at getting a major SE winter storm: focus on the storms in red. Therefore, I think -NAO and -AO are a bit overrated in how vital they are for there to be a major SE winter storm. Let the facts speak for themselves. 12/29/14 AO/NAO of major ATL winter storms since 1950 Major ATL SN and/or IP: NAO/AO: blue means both neg.; red means both positive 2/12-3/2014 NN +0.8/+0.6 1/9-10/2011 MLN -0.3/-3.4 2/12/2010 SEN -1.1/-4.8 3/1/2009 WLN +1.0/+2.3 1/2-3/2002 NN -0.5/0 3/13/1993 NP +0.1/+1.7 1/18/1992 SEN -0.7/-0.1 1/7/1988 SEN +0.5/+0.1 1/22/1987 MEN -1.0/-1.7 3/24/1983 SEN +0.1/-1.6 1/12-14/1982 NN 0/+0.8 2/17-18/1979 NN -0.1/-0.2 1/9/1962 NN +0.6/+1.8 3/11/1960 NN -0.4/-3.1 2/15/1958 SEN -0.2/-1.9 2/26/1952 WEN +0.1/-1.7 ZR: 3/2/1960 NN +0.1/-0.4 3/9/60 NN -0.2/-2.8 1/18-9/1962 NN +0.2/+2.8 12/24-5/1962 NN -1.9/-0.5 1/9-10/1968 NN -0.7/-1.8 3/25/1971 MLN +0.3/+0.4 1/7-8/1973 SEN -1.1/+0.1 2/6-7/1979 NN -1.1/-1.6 1/22-23/2000 SLN -0.7/-0.4 1/28-30/2000 SLN +0.4/+3.5 1/28-9/2005 WEN 0/-2.1 12/14-5/2005 WLN -0.5/-2.1 2/12/2014 NN +0.8/+0.6 Consider these stats for ATL: For major SN/IP since 1950, whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only a little higher number, seven, had a -NAO/-AO. For major ZR since 1950: whereas there were five that had +NAO/+AO, only little higher number, six, had a -NAO/-AO. NAO: median/mean -0.1/-0.1 with range +1.0 to -1.1 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.2/-0.3 with range +0.8 to -1.9 for major ZR AO: median/mean -0.2/-0.7 with range +2.3 to -4.8 for major SN/IP and median/mean -0.4/-0.3 with range +3.5 to -2.8 for major ZR After considering these stats, I'm a bit relieved about +NAO/+AO because they aren't as bad as I had expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The previous runs of the GFS were showing that trailing piece of energy only to crush it into oblivion with the artic front. It looks to have more southern energy to work with on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Interesting model runs last night. The Euro ensemble mean is in lock step with the operational run, but what's interesting is the way the ens. mean gets there is with low pressure locations shotgunned from central Mississippi to the Great Lakes. Long ways to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Matthew East puts out a quality video most every day (and it's posted on his blog). If you want to get a great feel for all the model data from overnight, check out his video from this morning. He details the Arctic blast as well as the early week potential wintry system (GFS, GGEM, UKMET, ECMWF). It's an excellent synopsis of what happened while you slept. He won't often promote his video, so I'll do it for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Matthew East puts out a quality video most every day (and it's posted on his blog). If you want to get a great feel for all the model data from overnight, check out his video from this morning. He details the Arctic blast as well as the early week potential wintry system (GFS, GGEM, UKMET, ECMWF). It's an excellent synopsis of what happened while you slept. He won't often promote his video, so I'll do it for him. Thanks! I appreciate the kind words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 6z GFS is a nice fantasy! We have seen this look before, lol! You can see it still has some ice at onset, with the cutter! On a side note, there were atleast 3-4 more wintry threats on out in time and another incoming at 384! So active and cold , is buzz word on 6z, enjoy it, until lunchtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks! I appreciate the kind words! great video. sounds like there are still a lot of variables but the main idea is a low that traverses west of the apps so the only hope for wintry would be what is left of the CAD. Not a great scenario for you guys or us up in the MA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It'll be easy to dismiss the 6z run....but it does actually have a lot of support. 00z GFS I thought would end up like the 6z but it never did phase. Euro also was pretty durn close at 5h to that solution as well. As Matt said, long ways to go. No reason to throw the towel in right now and I still think this is the best look we've had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks! I appreciate the kind words! You're quite welcome. You continually put out a quality product, and it deserves recognition. Now, if we can just get that low pressure to track a little further south and east, we'll all enjoy watching your upcoming videos even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 UKMET has the hot hand lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 6z GFS shows 7 inches for ATL on day 8. If only that look could hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 6z GFS shows 7 inches for ATL on day 8. If only that look could hold... Will savor this until 12z when the whining will be deafening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 6z GFS shows 7 inches for ATL on day 8. If only that look could hold... That would be the heaviest ATL SN since 3/24/1983, another Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This map seems to fit the pattern for the winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What a roller coaster ride last night. Canadian has a huge storm, Euro says no, and then the GFS comes back with a winter storm again. Looks like everything was pushed back to the 18th and 19th, too. The next 7 days are going to be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What a roller coaster ride last night. Canadian has a huge storm, Euro says no, and then the GFS comes back with a winter storm again. Looks like everything was pushed back to the 18th and 19th, too. The next 7 days are going to be crazy. Just as a heads up, it wasn't pushed back on the 6z gfs. It is a totally different system. The 6z had a cutter for the Tuesday storm then another storm on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just as a heads up, it wasn't pushed back on the 6z gfs. It is a totally different system. The 6z had a cutter for the Tuesday storm then another storm on Thursday. Yeah, I just meant as far as getting any winter weather. Looks like GFS has a rain system coming in first, then snow afterwards. While the Canadian just strings everything out with a huge mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll be surprised if the second storm is still on the 12Z GFS. There's no telling what will be on any of the 12Z models today if yesterday is any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And 6z reels you back in. That's what makes this winter so incredible. Non-stop fantasy storms that invariably never materialize. I must have close to 250inches of day 8 modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 6z gfs was a perfect scenario for a lot of us in the SE. The ridge out west looked good and the trough axis went negative at the perfect time. There are different ways for some of us to get snow out of the setup being shown but we need it to happen exactly like the 6z gfs for a big dog! Edit: I'm talking about the 2/19 storm above. I still believe the 2/17 storm will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And 6z reels you back in. That's what makes this winter so incredible. Non-stop fantasy storms that invariably never materialize. I must have close to 250inches of day 8 modeled snow. As I said earlier, I think the models have an issue dealing with blocking calculations in the pattern; at least out past 7 days. ** many many years in the future when we finally get a -NAO dominated winter we may actually see the opposite scenario, where storm shown as cutters at day 7 trend SE at day 5 to give us our winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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