SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 .gov yea, they updated right when i posted. instantweathermaps slowed after 153 to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The final chapter has not been written guys. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=180ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area I like the precip. not sure how thats happening with the low already in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is the biggest problem when people get overly excited over one or two good model runs in a day just to have the most likely situation show up 6-12 hours later. It's almost like people ignore 10 bad runs for the 1 good run. Join the pessimistic side guys. It is far less stressful. lol, folks are just reporting on what the models are showing...whoever is getting 'overly excited' with a 7 day model forecast has to deal with it themselves. Looks like the 00z has a few hours of icing in CAD land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Something strange happens from HR177 to HR180. Its like everything backs up but the cold keeps plowing ahead. Or have I had too many beers tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Something strange happens from HR177 to HR180. Its like everything backs up but the cold keeps plowing ahead. Or have I had too many beers tonight? #2 for a thousand , Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ukmet appears to be setting up for a southern slider at 144hrs... Yeah burrel that looks a little better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Something strange happens from HR177 to HR180. Its like everything backs up but the cold keeps plowing ahead. Or have I had too many beers tonight? Saw that too...like over running but north south trajectory with HP in the Atlantic...again story far from over...not saying happy ending but might be the best tracking all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 low is much closer to the 12z position at 162 than 18z, cold is further south too. not a horrible trend this run. i know i dont want a perfect solution showing up 162 hrs out. 18z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like the 00z GGEM is going to come in better than the 12z run, BTW. Better look so far. I'd say the 00z GFS was an improvement over the 18z run, BTW, though it's obviously not what we want by any stretch of the imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 180 panel from the GFS you guys are speaking of is a 12 hr total precip map. The 3/6 hour maps show the true story of the cold flooding in at 850mb AFTER the precip exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM FTW I'm only out to hr 144 but it looks good. Edit: I see it now...That looks like a crippling ice event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Step away from the gfs, you'll keep your sanity until it's within 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GGEM is on the way to a big +ZR/+IP/+SN for some areas. Still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Step away from the gfs, you'll keep your sanity until it's within 72 hrsI'll send pics of my cold rain! Cold is good on 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The cmc is a nasty event. It looks like all winter moisture types. A little zr, ip, and sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GGEM looks like the mother of all ice storms for much of the SE with snow in N NC. Oh boy. If you guys want to keep power/stay warm and be able to leave your home; lets hope the GGEM is wrong so far. Nasty ice is about to hit GA. Yes, including ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GGEM looks like the mother of all ice storms for much of the SE with snow in N NC.Just to temper enthusiasm, has the GGEM ever been right? What's the UKMet showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, the GGEM has two winter storms. The first is a crippling storm for much of NC and the rest of the SE with tons of ice and some snow. Then there's another storm... EDIT: Well, I guess it's more of one longggggggggg event with a bit of a lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just to temper enthusiasm, has the GGEM ever been right? What's the UKMet showing? The UKMET at hr 144 looked pretty good (that's as far as it goes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, the GGEM has two winter storms. The first is a crippling storm for much of NC and the rest of the SE with tons of ice and some snow. Then there's another snowstorm... Remember, the Euro had something behind the first too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, the GGEM has two winter storms. The first is a crippling storm for much of NC and the rest of the SE with tons of ice and some snow. Then there's another snowstorm... Yeah the gfs had this also but looked like it phased the two. The first was a small s/w with the second being the main player. My cmc 5h maps haven't loaded so not sure what the first wave was like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z GGEM.. by 156, historic ZR for ATL. In fact, could possibly be deadly. Still more precip to come too. Already at .50-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was they would still initialize the GFS pre-upgrade, maybe use it as a control or for comparison. I wonder what the differences would be for this particular storm? Seems like other models are still on board with some type of frozen p-type. Or for atleast the moment they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z GGEM.. by 156, historic ZR for ATL. In fact, could possibly be deadly. Still more precip to come too. Already at .50-.75 How much of an affected area are you seeing per the 00z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 How much of an affected area are you seeing per the 00z GGEM? Runs till coming out, but all of us man. The Midlands are about to get wrecked too. Will update when it's done with amounts. Looking like even Chris would see ZR in Macon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Okay for the ZR part, cold air at 2m is starting to pull away by hour 162. Here we go.. KCAE area 1in - 1.25in ZR. ATL area 1in ZR CLT - 1in ZR or so Even KMYR, KCHS, basically the whole state of SC besides Beaufort sees some ZR. Lets not wish this around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So the Canadian has front end 1-2in of snow followed by destructive ice storm to frz drizzle/drizzle mix then back to 3-5 inches of snow on the backend for parts of the Carolinas and southeast. And with that I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z GGEM.. by 156, historic ZR for ATL. In fact, could possibly be deadly. Still more precip to come too. Already at .50-.75 Amounts like that would rival the January 29, 2005 Icestorm. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=istorm13005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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