WxJordan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What model shows west of the apps besides 18z goofus? Like everyone has said above, the ensemble mean is clearly showing a west cut with this system. Does it have time to trend east, yes. But right now, the forecast track is west of the Apps, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is running!!! Lets HOPE for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was going to say there have been other times this winter when the ensembles looked better than the op, but that didn't turn out well.Damn Brick , nice post, really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, when the Operational runs all have a cutter along with the ensembles, we can put the argument to bed. Yep!!! tonight is the night we put it to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why are people still pretending like it's going to snow this winter? Seriously, joke's over. Give it up. Maybe on your Blue Ridge Escarpment you'll see snow this winter. Everywhere else? Nah bro. Can't believe there are still some holding onto this false hope of a winter storm with yet another subpar setup. You're really going to trust one lowly operational run over multiple other runs making up the entire ensemble? Come on, man. Cold and dry. Cold moves out, moisture moves in. Moisture moves out, cold sets back in. Y'all ain't learned yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why are people still pretending like it's going to snow this winter? Seriously, joke's over. Give it up. Maybe on your Blue Ridge Escarpment you'll see snow this winter. Everywhere else? Nah bro. Can't believe there are still some holding onto this false hope of a winter storm with yet another subpar setup. You're really going to trust one lowly operational run over multiple other runs making up the entire ensemble? Come on, man. Cold and dry. Cold moves out, moisture moves in. Moisture moves out, cold sets back in. Y'all ain't learned yet? Why is it so bad if people have some hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why is it so bad if people have some hope? This pattern is unusual and it can change. Do you think this pattern holds for eternity? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This pattern is unusual and it can change. Do you think this pattern holds for eternity? Come on. Just in time, we'll see the pattern change to ruin severe weather season one would assume. The 00z is running currently out to hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just in time, we'll see the pattern change to ruin severe weather season one would assume. The 00z is running currently out to hour 75. LOL Thanks for putting that thought into my head. Wouldn't surprise me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 #0Z #GFS #FlatRidge #Cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 #0Z #GFS #FlatRidge #Cliff I'm at hr 111 and the height of the ridge is good but I believe it's too far west. That could be a problem in further panels and our system cutting north and west. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm at hr 111 and the height of the ridge is good but I believe it's too far west. That could be a problem in further panels and our system cutting north and west. We'll see soon.Ridge too far west= cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ridge too far west= cutter That's what I'm afraid of. Looking at the 5h maps, the energy is a lot more robust out west than the 12z euro. Digging due south through Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low might stay south, need more suppression. MIGHT pull it off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Either gonna be a lakes cutter or a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low might stay south, need more suppression. MIGHT pull it off... I was kinda liking the look myself. Lets see where she goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Either gonna be a lakes cutter or a southern slider.That's a good call! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Either gonna be a lakes cutter or a southern slider.That's a big range. We are watching like you guys are..maybe we both score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low might stay south, need more suppression. MIGHT pull it off... It might...Cad is in place w/ the high sliding east but another high coming down through the Dakotas that might help keep it south. EDIT: Nope, it's gonna cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like an ice setup(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was kinda liking the look myself. Lets see where she goes... I was too. Looks like it will cut this time. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is painful to look at has 2 inches of cold rain for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is painful to look at has 2 inches of cold rain for NC And in between two major cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is painful to look at has 2 inches of cold rain for NCyep and the beat goes on. I bet the euro does a 180 tonight also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Where are yall getting your data from? wxbell? all the other sites are stuck on 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is the biggest problem when people get overly excited over one or two good model runs in a day just to have the most likely situation show up 6-12 hours later. It's almost like people ignore 10 bad runs for the 1 good run. Join the pessimistic side guys. It is far less stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 FWIW the low was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Where are yall getting your data from? wxbell? all the other sites are stuck on 153 I get my maps from SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ukmet appears to be setting up for a southern slider at 144hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Where are yall getting your data from? wxbell? all the other sites are stuck on 153 .gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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