Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If there is substantial cold and dry air prior to this storm moving in, it won't be a cutter. It'll Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If there is substantial cold and dry air prior to this storm moving in, it won't be a cutter. It'll Miller B. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 2/10/2015 12z EPS members showing 2" or greater snowfall at an assumed 10:1 ratio (could be sleet/ice for some) within the 240 hour window viewable. These are the numbers out of 51 possible. These are just the overall idea, and not storm specific. Storm specific ones may come if it looks obvious there is going to be a substantial widespread Winter storm well inside 240 hours. AL: KBHM - 2 KHSV - 15 KASN - 4 KTCL - 1 KAUB - 0 GA: KAHN - 16 KATL - 10 KGVL - 24 KSAV - 0 KMCN - 1 TN: KCHA - 23 KMEM - 16 KBNA - 27 KTYS - 25 KUCY - 34 MS: KTUP - 7 KJAN - 0 KGWO - 5 KBIX - 0 KSTF - 3 NC: KAVL - 35 KCLT - 20 KGSO - 31 KRDU - 19 KILM - 3 SC: KCEU - 32 KCAE - 8 KGSP - 27 KMYR - 3 KCHS - 1 KUZA - 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Significant changes in one run of the EURO. Atlanta went from -20C on the 00Z to 0C on the 12Z at 850mb for Sunday morning LOL. yup...so tell me we are to believe the drunk doc? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ensembles pretty much stayed the same, maybe another 1/4 inch op says 10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So odd seeing the such a cold anomaly sitting over the atlantic like this...I guess you would see cold anomalies with a -NAO but this is part of the PV rotating out over the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 twc showed snow for here next tuesday and wednesday and now no snow for wednesday, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 yup...so tell me we are to believe the drunk doc? LMAO The EPS mean shifted to the north also and is now a good bit warmer for almost all of Georgia. Usually I would say this is telling but I cannot remember a year in which even the ensembles have waffled almost as badly as the operationals. The GFS has been making incrementally smaller shifts further north like GAwx posted earlier. Right now I would be more inclined to go with GFS as it has a little more continuity but we will see where it goes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18Z GFS is cutting... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z zooms to Erie lol That was a nice few hours of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 No, it's supposed to be too cold to cut. It can't be?! Pattern repetition baby!! Who needs models anymore this winter, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 No, it's supposed to be too cold to cut. It can't be?! Pattern repetition baby!! Who needs models anymore this winter, honestly. And it still might be. This is just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 And it still might be. This is just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 And it still might be. This is just one run.Nah Brick. +NAO, + AO all winter. Rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Significant changes in one run of the EURO. Atlanta went from -20C on the 00Z to 0C on the 12Z at 850mb for Sunday morning LOL. The euro has been has horrible as I can ever remember it. I mean it's one thing to waffle on a storm but This? King my ass. No, it's supposed to be too cold to cut. It can't be?! Pattern repetition baby!! Who needs models anymore this winter, honestly. Not to sound like a complete weenie here but If it was possible to boycott the garbage that has been the models this year, I'd do it. I don't think I've ever been more frustrated with them. It's just unbelievable to me how bad the models have been. You can't trust anything they show..even if they show a particular solution for days lol at anyone getting excited over any wintery threat too after such drastic changes with a full latitude trough. To have any faith or trust in a particular of a storm at this range seems completely naive. And what do you know as I'm typing this I see the 18z gfs trends even further north. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 No, it's supposed to be too cold to cut. It can't be?! Pattern repetition baby!! Who needs models anymore this winter, honestly. Sure it can cut , right between the 2 highs! The one before and the one after the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Many of the ensemble suites have lots of members screaming cut. So it's not too impossible to see the 18z GFS OP do it. In fact, it makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The euro has been has horrible as I can ever remember it. I mean it's one thing to waffle on a storm but This? King my ass. Not to sound like a complete weenie here but If it was possible to boycott the garbage that has been the models this year, I'd do it. I don't think I've ever been more frustrated with them. It's just unbelievable to me how bad the models have been. You can't trust anything they show..even if they show a particular solution for days lol at anyone getting excited over any wintery threat too after such drastic changes with a full latitude trough. To have any faith or trust in a particular of a storm at this range seems completely naive. And what do you know as I'm typing this I see the 18z gfs trends even further north. What a joke. The Euro still remains king.. It is the best model around period. There is no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Black and white number prove this. If anyone expects there to be a computer model that can predict the placement of storms 7 days out needs to realize our skill in forecasting drops off substantially after five days. Models inside 120 hours have done wonderful. Expecting accuracy past that is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18Z GFS is cutting... wow Not surprised. When you seen an ensemble mean on the Euro look like this it tells you one thing, the 12z OP solution was an outlier. I'm not saying it can't trend into the perfect weenie saving storm, but the models are going to flip considerably the next few days as these first systems get cranked up and out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm a bit puzzled how the EPS Mean moved north when it was the "snowiest" run yet here with almost every member showing something. Sure, maybe it's not really snow, but instead ice, but it still seems strange. Still a long ways to go with this one, in any case. I'm not going to pretend a cutter isn't in play, either. It certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well, if this doesn't work out and there is no snow here next week, we know even 7 days out is too much to trust the models. All the major ones had a decent snowstorm here earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GEFS is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GEFS is a disaster The mean agrees with the EPS, model agreement atleast. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The mean agrees with the EPS, model agreement atleast. LOL. Thank god I thought people were starting to get excited for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 A quick thought about the models this year: they seem to, as mentioned above, hold onto a solution for days and then, in one run, they destroy the fantasy storm very quickly. It seems when there is an abrupt change, like today, the solution is usually more correct. It sure would be nice to see the opposite happen when something quickly changed to our favor. BTW, I am finally going to Daytona this year. Go figure that it looks pretty dang cold for that area in the long range. I am planning on bringing plenty of sunscreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If there is substantial cold and dry air prior to this storm moving in, it won't be a cutter. It'll Miller B.Ummmm 18z says, Whammy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GEFS is a disaster Hedging on one run? Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sigma values are around 1 or below in the Atlantic and northern plains in the ens. Sigma values was higher in the plans in past runs, but low pressures are consolidating around northern KY and reducing in the Atlantic for the aforementioned system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Maybe we can get miller B'd since the major arctic air mass will be in place, but wait, we lost the cold! We will take our cold rain and like it! I expect a couple of more nice runs in the next day or two, with a good snow for many, only to have tonight's 18z to be correct, kind of like the SB storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And 40 minutes ago WxSouth posted a video on Facebook saying increasing threat of a winter storm in the south next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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