mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's a big time winter storm for the western carolinas on the 12z. From my interpretation: CLT/AVL/GSP area: Snow to ice to rain to snow HKY: Snow to ice to snow Still plenty of time for apps runner, but I don't know if it can cut with all the highs up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Maybe something after the first storm: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=264ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150210+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 JB programmed the 12z GFS! Fits his Saturday video to a T. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Huge rainstorm on the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 *yaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnn* Since we like to use the word "VERBATIM" it looks fairly nice for the western NC/SWVA area (as usual) on the 12z. Every storm this year has had to battle with a big, fat RED L in southern Canada, tracking in perfect unison with the southern low. Replace that with a big, BLUE H and we'd have 20" and counting...same old song and dance we've been getting sucked into all winter! Maybe (or even most likely), but we will have cold air in place. Most of our biggest winter storms had cold in place before the storms. Dew points will be very low; to the point where even in-situ CAD could produce significant ice accumulations. So in short that great lakes low may not stop us from seeing a significant winter storm. ****but again these details are useless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Huge rainstorm on the cmc.Looked a big ZR storm to me for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looked a big ZR storm to me for NC Allan with the best tweet of the winter "@RaleighWx: Both the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian showing a wintry weather threat next Tuesday. Yes given this winter, use with caution, but a heads up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Allan with the best tweet of the winter "@RaleighWx: Both the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian showing a wintry weather threat next Tuesday. Yes given this winter, use with caution, but a heads up."Use with caution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 JB programmed the 12z GFS! Fits his Saturday video to a T. TW Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Interesting... I'm surprised it showed that much snow considering how the low is so far inland it's over Columbia. That and the lakes low and no good daming high location makes this suspect bigtime IMO. I think this is another cold rain event. Pattern repetition FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm surprised it showed that much snow considering how the low is so far inland it's over Columbia. That and the lakes low and no good daming high location makes this suspect bigtime IMO. I think this is another cold rain event. Pattern repetition FTL. The snow is before that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS has a low of -15 at HKY on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looked a big ZR storm to me for NC It starts out as sleet and freezing rain for most of NC but then turns to rain. Yuck! Maybe the Euro will come in with a snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Canadian is frzng rain cad areas. I'm on board and all in for the upcoming week starting this Friday. Pay back time for all the misery endured up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Why can't that low be Southeast about 150 miles more...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This airmass means business. I would expect a southward correction, putting many more of us in the game for an even more significant storm, if the timing holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The snow is before that frame. Here's the one before it. I'm still confused why it would be as cold as it is. With a lakes low and the High in a terrible position for CAD, why did it run so cold? From the high in the Canada? I'm just saying I don't buy this unless the "players on the field" look alot better than they currently do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Boy the GEM is bad news. Massive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This airmass means business. I would expect a southward correction, putting many more of us in the game for an even more significant storm, if the timing holds.I'm with you. I'm very excited about this. Big question is going to be timing. I feel like the Euro with its later solution allowed for more cold air to funnel in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's the one before it. I'm still confused why it would be as cold as it is. With a lakes low and the High in a terrible position for CAD, why did it run so cold? From the high in the Canada? I'm just saying I don't buy this unless the "players on the field" look alot better than they currently do. Well, you have to take into consideration the antecedent airmass, which is both really cold and really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's the one before it. I'm still confused why it would be as cold as it is. With a lakes low and the High in a terrible position for CAD, why did it run so cold? From the high in the Canada? I'm just saying I don't buy this unless the "players on the field" look alot better than they currently do. The cold airmass is left over from the weekend blast. The heights in the southeast haven't had a chance to rise enough to scour out the cold so it's a wintry mix to rain type deal...but no wiggle room with the temps, and to me, there's more of a chance of this correcting north than it is south based on the Atlantic side pattern and winter trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Boy the GEM is bad news. Massive ice storm. Ugh. I'd rather have 60º and sunny. In fact, 90º and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well, you have to take into consideration the antecedent airmass, which is both really cold and really dry.Agreed! I think speeding this up 12 hours , would do wonders for our ice/snow chances. The sooner precip comes in, the more stale cold would be around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The cold airmass is left over from the weekend blast. The heights in the southeast haven't had a chance to rise enough to scour out the cold so it's a wintry mix to rain type deal...but no wiggle room with the temps, and to me, there's more of a chance of this correcting north than it is south based on the Atlantic side pattern and winter trends. I would typically agree with that assessment but this is a historically cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's the one before it. I'm still confused why it would be as cold as it is. With a lakes low and the High in a terrible position for CAD, why did it run so cold? From the high in the Canada? I'm just saying I don't buy this unless the "players on the field" look alot better than they currently do. Both the Canadian and the GFS see very dry and still somewhat cold air right in front of his system with what they both see as precipitation falling onto single digit dewpoint air at the surface creating an insitu-cold air damming event on steroids. As this evaporates this will quickly drive temperatures below freezing with precipitation perhaps beginning as snow then quickly changing to freezing rain and sleet. Now your right about the synoptic setup. With no high in a good damming position to refresh the cold air latent heat release by freezing rain will likely result in a steady rise to freezing or above. The Canadian is a perfect storm as it has more robust precipitation associated with WAA out ahead of the low thus precip begins overnight and is heavier creating significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both the Canadian and the GFS see very dry and still somewhat cold air right in front of his system with what they both see as precipitation falling onto single digit dewpoint air at the surface creating an insitu-cold air damming event on steroids. As this evaporates this will quickly drive temperatures below freezing with precipitation perhaps beginning as snow then quickly changing to freezing rain and sleet. Now your right about the synoptic setup. With no high in a good damming position to refresh the cold air latent heat release by freezing rain will likely result in a steady rise to freezing or above. The Canadian is a perfect storm as it has more robust precipitation associated with WAA out ahead of the low thus precip begins overnight and is heavier creating significant icing. Totally agree. Extracted data shows 27/6 for KCLT the frame before precip begins. HKY is at 25/5. I would think that could create the mother of all in-situ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like we keep a snow sounding up to 174. There's a potential for 4-5" inches of snow on the ground before it even thinks about changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at the 12 GFS Ensemble members on ewall from the 12z run... Right or wrong, the ensemble members aren't quite as cold with the Sunday arctic blast (maybe that has to do with the lower resolution of the members, don't know) For the storm, here's what I see in terms of a breakdown (mainly with a focus on NC) Wintry Mix - 3 (members) Wintry Mix to Rain - 3 Mainly Rain - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at the 12 GFS Ensemble members on ewall from the 12z run... Right or wrong, the ensemble members aren't quite as cold with the Sunday arctic blast (maybe that has to do with the lower resolution of the members, don't know) For the storm, here's what I see in terms of a breakdown (mainly with a focus on NC) Wintry Mix - 3 (members) Wintry Mix to Rain - 3 Mainly Rain - 4 It looks like 3 of them are massive hits for all of the CAD area's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like we keep a snow sounding up to 174. There's a potential for 4-5" inches of snow on the ground before it even thinks about changing over. Looking at your analogs for no snow through January: you getting a multi-inch snow is suggested as a decent possibility at some point 2/1+ due to it being a Nino. Nino ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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