BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z pinches off a lobe of the PV and drops it all the way overhead of CLT....with that you should get some arctic front snow and you can see it @252....not likely to happen but a very cool look that you don't see often. PV heard Google Fiber is coming to town. That would be a crazy thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You don't see this everyday. You won't see that at 252 hrs either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You won't see that at 252 hrs either.Exactly! Everybody should have pinched this winter off long ago! You would think it would be hard to go from a low track up into PA, to a supressed solution, with no precip, in about 3 runs of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Exactly! Everybody should have pinched this winter off long ago! You would think it would be hard to go from a low track up into PA, to a supressed solution, with no precip, in about 3 runs of GFS We need a spaghetti plot of the ensembles in order to tell us if the atmosphere is in a volatile state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Exactly! Everybody should have pinched this winter off long ago! You would think it would be hard to go from a low track up into PA, to a supressed solution, with no precip, in about 3 runs of GFSthat's exactly why we don't cliff dive either way. The gfs has gone to a solution for the mountains for the February 2nd storm which is predominantly snow. Whether a lot or a little dosent matter to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We need a spaghetti plot of the ensembles in order to tell us if the atmosphere is in a volatile state. ...one that lends itself to "surprises"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You won't see that at 252 hrs either. LOL, no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ...one that lends itself to "surprises"? You know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ...one that lends itself to "surprises"? Unfortunately, "surprises" for us tend to go in one direction: bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Unfortunately, "surprises" for us tend to go in one direction: bad. I know it seems cliché but all it will take is one good storm to save the winter. Just about February, I'll take my chances that this winter is capable of a GOOD surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We need a spaghetti plot of the ensembles in order to tell us if the atmosphere is in a volatile state. Here ya go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 00z GFS has a great snowstorm for DC on 2/1-2. Just a little too warm for NC (and everyone else in the SE aside from TN) with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 00z GFS has a great snowstorm for DC on 2/1-2. Just a little too warm for NC (and everyone else in the SE aside from TN) with the track. Yep, back to the stronger system w/ an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yep, back to the stronger system w/ an apps runner. I wouldn't really call it an Apps Runner (wouldn't it have to cut up the Apps... but maybe I'm wrong?). It slides from N AL to AVL to just offshore of NE NC. With a track 100 miles further south, we'd be in business, but yeah... IF IF IF. It's kind of an odd track, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 man, great trends continue for the gfs. past 5 runs or so have all trended south and colder. and this run gives much more precip. will be interesting to watch the runs thru the weekend to see if we can get the low to keep trending south. EDIT: and some backend snow for northern nc at 114 as the low pulls ots. 00z run last night: 00z run tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If you want a snowstorm in NC in the 1st and 2nd, the SE ridge has got to GO. Only 1 model run 1/23/15 06z has shown this out of 24 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ya, nice trends for sure...lets see if the drunk doc continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tonight and tommorow euro run will be huge for this storm. Will have a good idea of what type of game we are still playing here in regards to Sunday storm. The margin of trend we need for triad NC is very much doable. 50 to 100 miles. Course it could swing 50 to 100 miles unfavorably. IMO it's all about how the northern stream shakes out. Moisture will be there. Still debatable about how much and if it all comes out at one time or bleeds breaks off energy in the sw flow. But the euro next 2 runs are in its wheelhouse, so we should see the boundries being drawn and be able to hone in from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 2/6 storm is south and east. With the old gfs that was a good place to be. I'm not sure how it works with the new gfs. Edit: It looks like the push of the cold air squashes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well, this shouldn't come as a surprise to most... Now that the GFS has crossed through its Day 5-6 shadow, the storm is start to re-invigorate itself on the model in a fashion similar to what it was showing back on Sunday and Monday. That plus now our big monster in the Atlantic is gone, we can see how that storm affected the northern stream flow... Tomorrow will also be a key day as we start to get inside the range of the NAM... I think this is far from a done deal for the North Carolina Mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The ridge is too flat and too Far East for the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM has a major winter storm for NC/TN/VA on D5, so there's that. EDIT: "Major" might be a little much, but it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 And here comes the GFS going back to something close to what it had 6 days ago,right on time as usual. Heights are high enough in the SE as I expected all along,so it won't be suppressed or meat grinded. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the GGEM is going to fold from its Lakes Cutter solution at 12z. Looks like it will be much more suppressed so far. EDIT: Still cuts later on (later than at 12z), but now it's a big winter storm for the DC area. Looks like this one might be lining up well for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Sunday storm is still a legit threat especially for the mountains and northern tier of NC. But we definitely need help with this storm. Its nice to see a nice strong 1050 mb high building in across the plains. For this to be a legit threat this high pressure needs to begin ridging down east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm. This would provide cooling at the surface and slow warming in the mid levels while supporting a more eastward trek of the storm (as opposed to NE). I'm most interested in the Gulf Low threat around 7-8 days out. Its obviously a ways out but this is climatologically favorable location for the development of lows that stand the best chance of providing big winter weather in the SE. It even comes with an area of supporting, non-transient high pressure (something that has alluded these parts when it counts so far this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM still cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like the Euro may be about to deliver the goods for the D4 event. Nice hit for the northern half of TN so far and it might be lining up to give N NC some snow, too. EDIT: Looks like it screws us with mid-30s surface temps, though. 850s are okay for the I-40 corridor, it appears. We are on the northern edge of the precip shield, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 VERY close to snow for all of NC 2m a bit warm, but looks like 35-38 degree range. 850/s are 0 to -2c from RDU and get colder westward...might turn into something nice folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I stay 10 miles away from the 32 degree line throughout the event lolz. This one was close for at least the VA/NC border counties. Better than a cutter, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.