Shawn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 2/10/2015 00z EPS members showing 2" or greater snowfall at an assumed 10:1 ratio (could be sleet/ice for some) within the 240 hour window viewable. These are the numbers out of 51 possible. These are just the overall idea, and not storm specific. Storm specific ones may come if it looks obvious there is going to be a substantial widespread Winter storm well inside 240 hours. AL: KBHM - 6 KHSV - 14 KASN - 5 KTCL - 3 KAUB - 3 GA: KAHN - 11 KATL - 8 KGVL - 16 KSAV - 0 KMCN - 4 TN: KCHA - 18 KMEM - 15 KBNA - 25 KTYS - 25 KUCY - 26 MS: KTUP - 10 KJAN - 2 KGWO - 5 KBIX - 0 KSTF - 4 NC: KAVL - 24 KCLT - 17 KGSO - 23 KRDU - 18 KILM - 8 SC: KCEU - 17 KCAE - 6 KGSP - 17 KMYR - 6 KCHS - 3 KUZA - 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I disagree...2m temps were a bigger issue. Anything north of 40 would be snow per the Euro. CLT would probably be a lot of sleet. It's a race for sure...but this far out that look is what we want.This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just as excited as yesterday about our week of winter here on triad of NC 2/13 - 2/20. The west southwest flow is almost progged perfect on the euro and latest gfs. Now have over half the euro ensembles showing significant snow for gso. 2+ inches is significant imo. From the double blast of cold over the weekend to an accumulating snow next Tues night into Wednesday, with below normal air behind mid week storm should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Folks, The 6Z GFS has a major SN for much of NC/TN on 2/17 due to a much colder high to the north feeding in cold air. Is this a blip, close to accurate, or the start of a southward trend? If the last option, those south of NC/TN could also get in on some action on future runs. I said a couple days ago i liked it. The other day it had a hp to our north and in the plains. An no pesky lake lows to srew us. Something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times. So you say we have a 10% chance? ...just kidding. Seriously this may be our best chance of the year. As stated before RAH has interest in the potential event and I have learned to trust them over most others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If that hp to our north verifies. Im sure the 850s the euro is showing would trend colder. Just my .000002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 furnace! Warmer than its previous run. ecmwf_t850_nc_33.png Heaviest precip is in between 204 - 216. It's heavy enough dynamic cooling would def. be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Euro is too warm at 850 at the start, but it changes over to snow for N NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times. If this system takes that track as modeled, 850's stay below freezing before, during, and after the storm. Actually they drop to -15C immediately after. So no, this is not moisture chasing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Insane wind chills Sunday morning. KATL -7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Overnight discussion from NWS Raleigh: INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS NEXTSYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS TIME GOES ALONG. CURRENTOPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN POLAR FRONT OVER THE SE STATES.TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WAVE... ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OFCOLD AIR FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL BE CRITICAL FORANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anyone looking at the RAP and HRRR? Someone in central NC could be in for a flaky surprise tomorrow morning. SE VA looks nice. Good call. It's snowing this morning up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hopefully this will increase at 12z so confidence will grow. We have seen better agreement than this at even less lead time this year. Huge caution when using the euro this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Today's runs will tell us if the south trend was for real or not. I think we end up with a I-40 special when all is said and done, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hopefully this will increase at 12z so confidence will grow. We have seen better agreement than this at even less lead time this year. Huge caution when using the euro this year.K1A5_2015021000_eps_snow_240.png Yeah it just looks good for your backyard now, central NC means look dreadful. Gotta love it. location location location. Edit: BTW I'm agreeing with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Notice the gradual warming that has occurred in the model runs. Now the 12Z GFs has ATL with a high on 2/15 near 32 vs. 20's yesterday. It could end up in the low 40's at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Pretty sure that low was meant to cut on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Pretty sure that low was meant to cut on the 6z Like it probably will on 12z. Completely different solution, energy diving over the pac ridge is now digging much further west and might phase with the low in Cali. No blocking FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Remember a couple of days ago we were worried the east coast trough was to far east, now the pac ridge is over the water. Where have we seen that before, oh yeah, the 2nd Boston blizzard. Shift this 150 miles east we might do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Close to being a bigger solution, the ridge does slide east, need that to happen a little quicker. Reminds me of 1/28/14. Interesting some blocking trying to develop, that would be nice if that improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Interesting... More CAD(ish) looking. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150210+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The dewpoints are going to be really low with this arctic outbreak. Combine that with this system moving in less than 24 hours after the arctic air gets here and you have a potential recipe for freezing rain from just a transient insitu CAD event. If we could get the high pressure to hang around a little longer this could get really interesting on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Interesting... Well it starts out good but then goes downhill fast at hour 177. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The dewpoints are going to be really low with this arctic outbreak. Combine that with this system moving in less than 24 hours after the arctic air gets here and you have a potential recipe for freezing rain from just a transient insitu CAD event. If we could get the high pressure to hang around a little longer this could get really interesting on Tuesday morning. yeah, nice recipe for a front end thump of snow that transitions through the types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 More CAD(ish) looking. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150210+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Well it starts out good but then goes downhill fast at hour 177. Well we have a HP sliding out and another one coming down over the Dakota's, and the SLP on this run just fits right in between them, LOL. I guess we will have a chance as long as the +PNA/-EPO remains, but it's so timing dependent so it will change every run for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well we have a HP sliding out and another one coming down over the Dakota's, and the SLP on this run just fits right in between them, LOL. I guess we will have a chance as long as the +PNA/-EPO remains, but it's so timing dependent so it will change every run for the next week. It's the devil in the details. Verbatim, for RDU, it would start as snow, go to ice, then maybe rain, then back to snow. (but for all of us) All that counts right now (at this range) is that we have the players on the field. We definitely have real potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If only we had a good snowpack up north! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's a big time winter storm for the western carolinas on the 12z. From my interpretation: CLT/AVL/GSP area: Snow to ice to rain to snow HKY: Snow to ice to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All that counts right now (at this range) is that we have the players on the field. We definitely have real potential here. *yaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnn* Since we like to use the word "VERBATIM" it looks fairly nice for the western NC/SWVA area (as usual) on the 12z. Every storm this year has had to battle with a big, fat RED L in southern Canada, tracking in perfect unison with the southern low. Replace that with a big, BLUE H and we'd have 20" and counting...same old song and dance we've been getting sucked into all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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