NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Might see some flakes in the a.m. as cold comes in and rain is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I made this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anyone looking at the RAP and HRRR? Someone in central NC could be in for a flaky surprise tomorrow morning. SE VA looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anyone looking at the RAP and HRRR? Someone in central NC could be in for a flaky surprise tomorrow morning. SE VA looks nice. yep, short range models seem to be picking it up now. lets see how the nam looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 12z CMC and GFS look so different at hour 240.. CMC has a crippling ice storm, while the GFS basically has nothing of the sort. Just a prime example that we can NEVER trust these models 10-days out (yes, we've already established this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 HRRR makes it look interesting for north of Raleigh and Greensboro in the AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some Fish-Thoughts! Greg Fishel UPDATE! This could be one of those rare times where the long range models were on to something, but before you get too excited, let's take a more detailed look at this. There are growing signs of two pretty intense arctic shots: one Friday and perhaps an even more impressive one Sunday. The Sunday outbreak could easily result in a high temperatures in the low to mid 20s with lows near 10. Here's the bad news though. Not only is it unlikely to snow while it's that cold, it could be in the 40s with rain within 48 hours of that extreme cold occurring. As Jimmy V said, don't ever give up, but this just doesn't seem to be our year when it comes to snow, and the clock is ticking big time! Well if that happens, that would be quite impressive for another reason. The airmass with the 2nd cold shot is insanely dry..maybe record dry? For the 2nd cold shot, the euro, gfs and canadian are spitting out dewpoints that I (as i'm sure most here) have never seen before. Depending on which run you look at, It is generally showing dewpoints in the -10s to -20F range over the entire southeast. The last few runs has widespread sub -20F dewpoints over a lot of the mid south into MS. The 0z run last night even had dewpoints approaching -25F over the upstate sunday morning! Dewpoints in the single digits and even below zero even make it to south florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nice me so scale low rolling across SC right now. Loop radar, if only this was fri, sat or sun night. One can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nice me so scale low rolling across SC right now. Loop radar, if only this was fri, sat or sun night. One can dreamMe so rainy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well if that happens, that would be quite impressive for another reason. The airmass with the 2nd cold shot is insanely dry..maybe record dry? For the 2nd cold shot, the euro, gfs and canadian are spitting out dewpoints that I (as i'm sure most here) have never seen before. Depending on which run you look at, It is generally showing dewpoints in the -10s to -20F range over the entire southeast. The last few runs has widespread sub -20F dewpoints over a lot of the mid south into MS. The 0z run last night even had dewpoints approaching -25F over the upstate sunday morning! Dewpoints in the single digits and even below zero even make it to south florida. That would be amazing if that was right. I don't know if I have ever seen that here. To be honest, I think -5 or so is the lowest I have seen here with a 1051mb high parked in prime time CAD spot. Back in 2002 or 03 I believe Nice ZR event that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 gfs seems to have backed off on the snow possibilities for rdu friday. precip shield moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Single digits and low teens at 12z ,per the 0z GFS !!!!! That can't happen, right?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Unreal. No frozen precip to speak of for the interior south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well if that happens, that would be quite impressive for another reason. The airmass with the 2nd cold shot is insanely dry..maybe record dry? For the 2nd cold shot, the euro, gfs and canadian are spitting out dewpoints that I (as i'm sure most here) have never seen before. Depending on which run you look at, It is generally showing dewpoints in the -10s to -20F range over the entire southeast. The last few runs has widespread sub -20F dewpoints over a lot of the mid south into MS. The 0z run last night even had dewpoints approaching -25F over the upstate sunday morning! Dewpoints in the single digits and even below zero even make it to south florida. We saw some insanely low DP's on Jan 7th this year. Guidance then was also at times spitting out DP's below -10F. Actual on that day reached single digits below zero all across SC including -3f to -7F at KCHS. Shocked on every damn thing I touched metal that day. Lowest I can recall down here occurred on Feb 16th 1991 actually. I believe the DP went down to -11. Had snow showers in the AM driven by wind gusts occasionally gusting over 60mph during the day. Even the previous day when it reached 70, RH values were down to 7% yielding a DP of 3 with gusty W winds. I can't recall DP's during the 1985 Jan 21st record Arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z GFS was really close to a major winter storm on D8. Big south shift. Creams S VA. Looks like some snow for much of NC on the rear end. EDIT: Cancel the backside snows... forgot that NCEP shows 12-hour precip after hr 192. Still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z GFS was really close to a major winter storm on D8. Big south shift. Creams S VA. Yup, its close.. if the arctic air keeps trending stronger, and the PV further south I think it will help our chances of the storm not cutting too far north.. but hey this winter has been so progressive who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GFS is bipolar and flipped the medium to LR yet again. It's becoming the 6 hour trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like the GFS is drunk in the LR again. It's been doing this crap all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The cold shot behind the 18th storm, does not look to shabby either! If we could get that storm to produce snow for alot of us and get the cold right behind it, we could have it stay on the ground more than a day! It's going to be hard for this storm to be anything but rain, IMO , the cold will be VERY stale by the time it arrives! I don't think dp in the -20s could even help, stale hardly ever works out, need fresh cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like the GFS is drunk in the LR again. It's been doing this crap all winter. Okay, I no longer respect the GFS even with the upgrade. It's been lying to us a lot in the SE. The Euro verification scores are still better (at least globally) and isn't it the global weather going on that ultimately affects us here in the states? It's like a riddle I know. ;/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 00Z Canadian is another miss with the same track we've seen all winter. Cold rain on day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z Euro appears to have a winter storm for some on D8-9. EDIT: Major winter storm for a good bit of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 00z Euro appears to have a winter storm for some on D8-9. EDIT: Major winter storm for a good bit of NC. 850 temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Folks, The 6Z GFS has a major SN for much of NC/TN on 2/17 due to a much colder high to the north feeding in cold air. Is this a blip, close to accurate, or the start of a southward trend? If the last option, those south of NC/TN could also get in on some action on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Folks, The 6Z GFS has a major SN for much of NC/TN on 2/17 due to a much colder high to the north feeding in cold air. Is this a blip, close to accurate, or the start of a southward trend? If the last option, those south of NC/TN could also get in on some action on future runs. RAH has an interest in this system: <Last part of LR discussion> INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS TIME GOES ALONG. CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN POLAR FRONT OVER THE SE STATES. TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WAVE... ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF COLD AIR FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Folks, The 6Z GFS has a major SN for much of NC/TN on 2/17 due to a much colder high to the north feeding in cold air. Is this a blip, close to accurate, or the start of a southward trend? If the last option, those south of NC/TN could also get in on some action on future runs. Yeah Larry great look on the 6z GFS. That would make most of the NC posters smile and forget about this abysmal winter so far. Here is Alan's 48hr snowfall map from the event. Looks like it drops close to 6"-7" in some places. Of course this will all probably change on the 12z runs but the Euro and GFS somewhat agree on this threat as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm liking what the models are doing now and it certainly has my interest. Timing is right for this and with the pattern reloading it's ripe for a winter storm. Would not be surprised to see the cold airmass sagging down as we go. This airmass hitting us this weekend is the real deal so there is plenty of cold air to work with up north after it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 850 temps are too warm. I disagree...2m temps were a bigger issue. Anything north of 40 would be snow per the Euro. CLT would probably be a lot of sleet. It's a race for sure...but this far out that look is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I disagree...2m temps were a bigger issue. Anything north of 40 would be snow per the Euro. CLT would probably be a lot of sleet. It's a race for sure...but this far out that look is what we want.furnace! Warmer than its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ensembles are colder still a mean of 4 inches here with almost all members on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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