Jon Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Funny how he thinks the long range models are only onto something when it doesn't show snow. It's not that hard of a concept. I just posted the exact same thoughts. It would be hard to get snow with the pattern AND the cold showing up on the models the way they are. It has nothing to do with any kind of bias he has. He's a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Haven't the models been showing wintry weather in NC in some runs for the 18th through 20th for the past few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 So why is it easier to believe it will be as cold as the models show in the long range? Sprawling high pressure systems are easier to predict than 200 mile across low pressure systems in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To little to late???...I haven't looked at strat plots in weeks until HM just mentioned it...maybe sets up blocking for March Pack ironically I thought everything would fall in place in March but would be to late for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Pack ironically I thought everything would fall in place in March but would be to late for most. You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE. For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE. For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun! March '81 FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 March '81 FTW... Was in Winston for that, great event. Definitely a I-77 and points west climo period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad. Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after. In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE. For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun! Yeah I agree pack. I really hope yall can get some snow before March set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad. Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after. In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F! Don't worry the CFS drops the hammer pretty soon after. I vote the CFS being taken out of commission. We're wasting processor space with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Don't worry the CFS drops the hammer pretty soon after. I vote the CFS being taken out of commission. We're wasting processor space with it. LOL...possibly. The EPS does relax the temps day 12-14 but looks like it may reload again day 15...I hope not. JB is in scramble mode trying to salvage his winter, you read what he wrote today? It was in the NYC vendor thread. He still thinks his winter forecast is going to verify, pathetic. He's justifying it by saying if he takes into account the cold Nov and soon to be cold March and you blend it all together he will be close with temps and somehow the record low conus snow cover will be fixed with southern stream coming alive. Maybe he was a good met at some point but this is getting just sad now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 2/9/2015 12z EPS members showing 2" or greater snowfall at an assumed 10:1 ratio (could be sleet/ice for some) within the 240 hour window viewable. These are the numbers out of 51 possible. These are just the overall idea, and not storm specific. Storm specific ones may come if it looks obvious there is going to be a substantial widespread Winter storm well inside 240 hours.AL:KBHM - 5KHSV - 13KASN - 5KTCL - 5KAUB - 2GA:KAHN - 6KATL - 6KGVL - 12KSAV - 0KMCN - 4TN:KCHA - 17KMEM - 10KBNA - 19KTYS - 22KUCY - 23MS:KTUP - 7KJAN - 2KGWO - 4KBIX - 0KSTF - 4NC:KAVL - 24KCLT - 11KGSO - 16KRDU - 10KILM - 4SC:KCAE - 4KGSP - 14KCEU - 16KMYR - 3KCHS - 3KUZA - 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad. Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after. In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F! Nice wedging! No warmth for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE. For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun! It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Since the dawn of the millennium, this area has seen accumulating snow/ice in mid/late March in 2003, 2005, and 2014. It is not common, but not that rare, either. 2007, as well, for other areas of the SE (was that April?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Anything of note in the last 30 years, Webber? Or Anyone? Edit: Superjames just spoke to that, though it was for his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974 webber - I think a lot of folks would say well, those are 40+ years ago. Personally, I'm fine with March events. I've posted it before, but for Charlotte, early March and late Dec numbers are similar...and late March and early Dec numbers are similar...the numbers are likely a little better for March in +ENSO years as I believe you have shown. Regardless of what month it is, we have issues to deal with this winter with getting systems to track to our south in concert with cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Great news on the new Euro weeklies: solid cold weeks 1-3 (through 3/1)! This gets us through 3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 gfs at 78hr gives central/eastern nc snow. trends have been better for this as the day as gone on. i know everyone wants a big dog but i will take a nice snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Some Fish-Thoughts! Greg Fishel UPDATE! This could be one of those rare times where the long range models were on to something, but before you get too excited, let's take a more detailed look at this. There are growing signs of two pretty intense arctic shots: one Friday and perhaps an even more impressive one Sunday. The Sunday outbreak could easily result in a high temperatures in the low to mid 20s with lows near 10. Here's the bad news though. Not only is it unlikely to snow while it's that cold, it could be in the 40s with rain within 48 hours of that extreme cold occurring. As Jimmy V said, don't ever give up, but this just doesn't seem to be our year when it comes to snow, and the clock is ticking big time! Highs in the low-mid 20s in February is by all means historic in central NC, especially w/ a lack of substantial snowcover. According to Raleigh NWS NOWdata, Raleigh has experienced only 45 days in February w/ highs below 30F (on avg about once every 3 years). A high temperature at or below 25F would put us well inside the top 20 in terms of coldest February days on record, and a high temperature even below 30F (which is entirely reasonable to assume @ this point in time) would make for the coldest February day in Raleigh since 1996. Clearly w/ about 1-1.5 feet of snowpack on the ground in the mid portion of the month in a gargantuan/paralyzing Miller A east coast blizzard, February 1899 is sets the benchmark. I couldn't imagine seeing highs struggling to emerge out of the single digits, that's just plain nuts... Here is a list of all the days w/ high temperatures below 30F in Raleigh, NC. February 13, 1899: 10F February 12, 1899: 13F February 8, 1895: 17F February 17, 1958: 18F February 11, 1899: 18F February 4, 1996: 19F February 18, 1979: 19F February 24, 1889: 19F February 5, 1917: 22F February 17, 1896: 22F February 5, 1996: 23F February 18, 1958: 23F February 3, 1996: 24F February 10, 1899: 24F February 5, 1947: 25F February 12, 1955: 26F February 27, 1934: 26F February 6, 1923: 26F February 3, 1905: 26F February 4, 1905: 26F February 13, 1895: 26F February 25, 1967: 27F February 3, 1961: 27F February 14, 1916: 27F February 25, 1914: 27F February 10, 1948: 28F February 3, 1917: 28F February 24, 1914: 28F February 7, 1907: 28F February 5, 1905: 28F February 8, 1905: 28F February 1, 1900: 28F February 18, 1900: 28F February 14, 1899: 28F February 1, 1898: 28F February 11, 1895: 28F February 12, 1895: 28F February 1, 1980: 29F February 1, 1971: 29F February 4, 1970: 29F February 15, 1943: 29F February 9, 1934: 29F February 1, 1920: 29F February 23, 1901: 29F February 9, 1895: 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Must be common since March averages more snow than Dec. Not sure why everyone is on here looking for snow in November and Dec but gone by February 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974 Instead of arguing, lets just do a visual. We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974 Which means we don't mention March 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, & 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let me clarify in great detail so Webber and SuperJames can't argue this :-) It's rare for RDU to get greater the 2"+ accumating snowfall after March 10th. I would define rare as less than once a decade, but to give you guys a fighting chance we can go with 15 years. Last time this occurred was 32 years ago, thus rare. If you want something else to argue....the earth is round....we are not alone in the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Instead of arguing, lets just do a visual. We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974 Which means we don't mention March 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, & 2014. His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record... There are other years in there I didn't mention which had 2"+ snows after March 10th, but I only stuck to looking for 1"+ events from March 20th-31st, didn't even throw in April which also has a few as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 gfs at 78hr gives central/eastern nc snow. trends have been better for this as the day as gone on. i know everyone wants a big dog but i will take a nice snow shower. Not much, but it is nice to actually see something inside 5 days pop up for a change. I think that is when we are really only going to have a legit shot. The system for the 20th might be 11 days away, and it might go away, but it could pop up again. I think a few days ago there were signals and runs on the models showing something around Friday, and they went away only to come back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record... There are other years in there I didn't mention which had 2"+ snows after March 10th, but I only stuck to looking for 1"+ events from March 20th-31st, didn't even throw in April which also has a few as well... My records have 71 and 72 with less than an inch accumations. Doesn't count. 74 had 2.9", does count. Along with 83 that's twice in 40 years, thus rare. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record... Your point was, it's not that rare. 92% of the time it doesn't happen. In any case, my visual was to be instead of an argument not a part of one. Everyone can form their own conclusion so our conversation on this is at an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I just dont see any winter storm for the SE in the models. We finally get the PV on our side, but the NAO is shredding any hope for cyclogenesis of a SE winter storm. Hopefully things change and i hope they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Any further discussion on the definition of rare, should occur in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 if it snows in march 2015, what does it matter? and if it doesn't snow in march 2015, what does it matter? what i respectfully suggest that matters is given the pattern, the setup, the indices, will it snow anytime in the relevant geographic area before april 2015? if so or not so, why or why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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