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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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Funny how he thinks the long range models are only onto something when it doesn't show snow. 

It's not that hard of a concept. I just posted the exact same thoughts. It would be hard to get snow with the pattern AND the cold showing up on the models the way they are. It has nothing to do with any kind of bias he has. He's a snow lover.

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Pack ironically I thought everything would fall in place in March but would be to late for most.

 

You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE.  

 

For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March.  The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception.  The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window.  Time flies when you are having fun!

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You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE.

For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun!

March '81 FTW... ;)

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This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad.  Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after.  

 

In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F!   :sun:

post-2311-0-68254300-1423516131_thumb.pn

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You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE.

For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March. The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception. The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window. Time flies when you are having fun!

Yeah I agree pack. I really hope yall can get some snow before March set in.
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This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad.  Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after.  

 

In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F!   :sun:

Don't worry the CFS drops the hammer pretty soon after. I vote the CFS being taken out of commission. We're wasting processor space with it.

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Don't worry the CFS drops the hammer pretty soon after. I vote the CFS being taken out of commission. We're wasting processor space with it.

 

LOL...possibly.  The EPS does relax the temps day 12-14 but looks like it may reload again day 15...I hope not.  

 

JB is in scramble mode trying to salvage his winter, you read what he wrote today?  It was in the NYC vendor thread.  He still thinks his winter forecast is going to verify, pathetic.  He's justifying it by saying if he takes into account the cold Nov and soon to be cold March and you blend it all together he will be close with temps and somehow the record low conus snow cover will be fixed with southern stream coming alive.  Maybe he was a good met at some point but this is getting just sad now.

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2/9/2015 12z EPS members showing 2" or greater snowfall at an assumed 10:1 ratio (could be sleet/ice for some) within the 240 hour window viewable.  These are the numbers out of 51 possible.  These are just the overall idea, and not storm specific.  Storm specific ones may come if it looks obvious there is going to be a substantial widespread Winter storm well inside 240 hours.

AL:
KBHM - 5
KHSV - 13
KASN - 5
KTCL - 5
KAUB - 2

GA:
KAHN - 6
KATL - 6
KGVL - 12
KSAV - 0
KMCN - 4

TN:
KCHA - 17
KMEM - 10
KBNA - 19
KTYS - 22
KUCY - 23

MS:
KTUP - 7
KJAN - 2
KGWO - 4
KBIX - 0
KSTF - 4

NC:
KAVL - 24
KCLT - 11
KGSO - 16
KRDU - 10
KILM - 4

SC:
KCAE - 4
KGSP - 14
KCEU - 16
KMYR - 3
KCHS - 3
KUZA - 7

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This would be most welcome...after this the CFS is colder for March, but not crazy cold, with avg highs in the 60's for March it shouldn't be too bad. Withstand a 5-7 day cold period and we should limp into spring soon after.

In a little more than 4 more weeks are avg high jumps 10F! :sun:

Nice wedging! No warmth for us! ;)

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You guys can get snow well into March, so the blocking, if any develops could be great for you guys up through the MA-NE.  

 

For us in central NC it drops off like a cliff after the first week of March.  The usual suspects will throw March 83 as an argument that it can snow in central NC in late March but that is the rare exception.  The nice thing is come next week, central NC's remaining winter will be within the GEFS/EPS 15 day model run window.  Time flies when you are having fun!

 

It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974

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It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974

 

webber - I think a lot of folks would say well, those are 40+ years ago.  Personally, I'm fine with March events.  I've posted it before, but for Charlotte, early March and late Dec numbers are similar...and late March and early Dec numbers are similar...the numbers are likely a little better for March in +ENSO years as I believe you have shown.  Regardless of what month it is, we have issues to deal with this winter with getting systems to track to our south in concert with cold air

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Some Fish-Thoughts!

426856_10151225415545724_1811994702_n.jp

UPDATE! This could be one of those rare times where the long range models were on to something, but before you get too excited, let's take a more detailed look at this. There are growing signs of two pretty intense arctic shots: one Friday and perhaps an even more impressive one Sunday. The Sunday outbreak could easily result in a high temperatures in the low to mid 20s with lows near 10. Here's the bad news though. Not only is it unlikely to snow while it's that cold, it could be in the 40s with rain within 48 hours of that extreme cold occurring. As Jimmy V said, don't ever give up, but this just doesn't seem to be our year when it comes to snow, and the clock is ticking big time!

 

 

 

Highs in the low-mid 20s in February is by all means historic in central NC, especially w/ a lack of substantial snowcover. According to Raleigh NWS NOWdata, Raleigh has experienced only 45 days in February w/ highs below 30F (on avg about once every 3 years). A high temperature at or below 25F would put us well inside the top 20 in terms of coldest February days on record, and a high temperature even below 30F (which is entirely reasonable to assume @ this point in time) would make for the coldest February day in Raleigh since 1996.

Clearly w/ about 1-1.5 feet of snowpack on the ground in the mid portion of the month in a gargantuan/paralyzing Miller A east coast blizzard, February 1899 is sets the benchmark. I couldn't imagine seeing highs struggling to emerge out of the single digits, that's just plain nuts...

 

Here is a list of all the days w/ high temperatures below 30F in Raleigh, NC.

February 13, 1899: 10F

February 12, 1899: 13F

February 8, 1895:   17F

February 17, 1958: 18F

February 11, 1899: 18F

February 4, 1996:   19F

February 18, 1979: 19F

February 24, 1889: 19F

February 5, 1917:   22F

February 17, 1896: 22F

February 5, 1996:   23F

February 18, 1958: 23F

February 3, 1996:   24F

February 10, 1899: 24F

February 5, 1947:   25F

February 12, 1955: 26F

February 27, 1934: 26F

February 6, 1923:   26F

February 3, 1905:   26F

February 4, 1905:   26F

February 13, 1895: 26F

February 25, 1967: 27F

February 3, 1961:   27F

February 14, 1916: 27F

February 25, 1914: 27F

February 10, 1948: 28F

February 3, 1917:   28F

February 24, 1914: 28F

February 7, 1907:   28F

February 5, 1905:   28F

February 8, 1905:   28F

February 1, 1900:   28F

February 18, 1900: 28F

February 14, 1899: 28F

February 1, 1898:   28F

February 11, 1895: 28F

February 12, 1895: 28F

February 1, 1980:   29F

February 1, 1971:   29F

February 4, 1970:   29F

February 15, 1943: 29F

February 9, 1934:   29F

February 1, 1920:   29F

February 23, 1901: 29F

February 9, 1895:   29F

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It's not quite that rare nor is March 1983 "the" only exception....We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974

 

Instead of arguing, lets just do a visual.

 

We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974

 

Which means we don't mention March 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, & 2014.

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Let me clarify in great detail so Webber and SuperJames can't argue this :-)

It's rare for RDU to get greater the 2"+ accumating snowfall after March 10th. I would define rare as less than once a decade, but to give you guys a fighting chance we can go with 15 years. Last time this occurred was 32 years ago, thus rare.

If you want something else to argue....the earth is round....we are not alone in the universe.

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Instead of arguing, lets just do a visual.

 

We can also mention March 1914, 1915, 1940, 1947, 1971, 1972, & 1974

 

Which means we don't mention March 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, & 2014.

 

His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record...

 

There are other years in there I didn't mention which had 2"+ snows after March 10th, but I only stuck to looking for 1"+ events from March 20th-31st, didn't even throw in April which also has a few as well...

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gfs at 78hr gives central/eastern nc snow.  trends have been better for this as the day as gone on. i know everyone wants a big dog but i will take a nice snow shower.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

Not much, but it is nice to actually see something inside 5 days pop up for a change. I think that is when we are really only going to have a legit shot. The system for the 20th might be 11 days away, and it might go away, but it could pop up again. I think a few days ago there were signals and runs on the models showing something around Friday, and they went away only to come back now.

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His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record...

There are other years in there I didn't mention which had 2"+ snows after March 10th, but I only stuck to looking for 1"+ events from March 20th-31st, didn't even throw in April which also has a few as well...

My records have 71 and 72 with less than an inch accumations. Doesn't count.

74 had 2.9", does count. Along with 83 that's twice in 40 years, thus rare. Woohoo!

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His point was March 1983 "is" (i.e. the only) exception, which was clearly wrong if you actually looked into the historical record...

 

Your point was, it's not that rare.  92% of the time it doesn't happen.  In any case, my visual was to be instead of an argument not a part of one.  Everyone can form their own conclusion so our conversation on this is at an end.

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if it snows in march 2015, what does it matter? and if it doesn't snow in march 2015, what does it matter? what i respectfully suggest that matters is given the pattern, the setup, the indices, will it snow anytime in the relevant geographic area before april 2015? if so or not so, why or why not?

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