Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well, the models have been showing something between the 18th and 20th for the past few days. Maybe this will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It'll be in and out, but that's a big dog cold blast on the GFS It'll be interesting to see if we can manage 2 more days with highs in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I wonder if its even worth posting anything past 200 hrs anymore... This is a weather board so we will talk about fantasy storms, but we should be veterans at knowing when to get truly excited. At this point most my focus may go to late this week. NAM and GFS show some precip (maybe snow) for eastern NC. Maybe a surprise minor event??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Like the way the week from this Friday till next friday is shaping up. Should help some of us swallow a little better after the bitter aftertaste this winter has left in our mouth. While not great, an improved long wave pattern should heal a few wounds in NC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 MEX MOS, which is greatly skewed toward climo, has CLT at 28 for a high on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This map is showing 250mb zonal wind anomalies for Jan into early Feb. Lol, no wonder these cutoffs keep spinning over the southwest as the jet level winds there have been weaker than average. There are above avg winds there just north of Hawaii along 30N, but across N America we have the opposite of what we would like to see. That is, we have below normal winds from Baja into the Gulf of Mexico (weaker than normal southern stream there) and above normal winds across southern Canada to southern Greenland (characteristic of +AO/+NAO). Those winds are finally reversing as evident by the recent east based -NAO that's being driven by the resurgent NINO upper level signature. This is consequently inducing the formation of a persistent, cold core gyre in eastern Canada that's forcing massive anticyclonic wave breaking events in the North Atlantic, as is climatologically favored during a +ENSO February, in essence, leading to substantial height rises over Greenland/Iceland that are projecting onto the teleconnection indices... Just to clarify, in the zonal wind anomaly images blues & purples (reds, oranges, yellows) in the mid latitudes specifically are indicative of anomalous easterly (westerly) winds, (for example, stronger easterlies aloft in the North Atlantic (indicated by yellow, orange, & red hues)= stronger pressure gradient between the Icelandic Vortex & the Azores-Bermuda subtropical high, hence a higher (+) NAO index & vis versa) N hem anomalous 250mb zonal winds January 1-February 7 N hem anomalous 250mb zonal winds February 1-7 N hem 500mb January 1-February 7 2015 N hem 500mb January 1-February 7 2015 The eastern hemisphere/Indian Ocean tropical forcing earlier in the winter, along w/ some destructive solar interference to EP flux, and of course the minor mid-winter SSWE that only displaced the PV & forced a substantial piece into N America, likely inertially stabilized the Hudson Bay Vortex, and if @ least one these conditions were more conducive, we'd currently be under a substantial -NAO regime given the ferocity of the North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking... The massive Maritime Continent-West Pacific MJO pulse back in January not only reconfigured the upper level tropical circulation to rid of the dateline upper level convergence, but the coincident, & anomalous upper level westerlies poleward of the active tropical convective center also caused a poleward shift in the anomalous -AAM. Now, we're looking @ what's a generally favorable AAM signature for high-latitude blocking, however I suspect the sensible effects may not be fully felt (in terms of a -AO/NAO) until the jet wavelengths shorten further (i.e. in March)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 14 days of winter left ? Ryan (@RyanMaue) 2/9/15, 12:48 Good news from GFS 12z model -- pattern does break down and shift warmer Pacific air over eastern US ... in 14-days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If even half of the potential 10 day storm threats verified we would have been pushing snow totals in feet and be feeling new englands pain. Don't think I have ever seen the models as bad as they have been this year. A lot of model runs on what seems to be almost a daily basis can be showing a 180 degree complete opposite of what it was just showing a few hours earlier. Model mayhem to say the least... Mets really have to work hard to earn their money these days and my hat goes to you folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 As stated above the NAM and GFS have some precip for eastern NC. Most likely this will trend dryer as we get closer but still something to monitor. 12 GFS shows a dusting to a half inch from Raleigh eastward: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It'll be interesting to see if we can manage 2 more days with highs in the 20's. 12z GFS and CMC both brought the center of the cold vortex more or less through PA which is very far south for that kind of feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro actually has some snow for NC associated with the cold front. Might be something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 14 days of winter left ? Ryan (@RyanMaue) 2/9/15, 12:48 Good news from GFS 12z model -- pattern does break down and shift warmer Pacific air over eastern US ... in 14-days. He's been wrong all winter with regards to cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro brings the hammer down with arctic air and is colder in the 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yessir the Euro is really cold from the first cold snap out to 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks like we may have to break out the Arctic Attack Thread II. I know some of y'all just love the sound of that. I want to get through 12z Tuesday before creating it. The initial blast looks respectable for the SoApps starting Thursday Night. Round 2 on Sunday is just rediculous cold region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro is cold, but still no signs of southern stream coming alive. If the AAM changes lead to HLB in March that would be the icing on the cake of this god forsaken winter. It would help keep the MA to NE snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro is cold, but still no signs of southern stream coming alive. If the AAM changes lead to HLB in March that would be the icing on the cake of this god forsaken winter. It would help keep the MA to NE snowy. The storm next week is a southern stream system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks like we may have to break out the Arctic Attack Thread II. I know some of y'all just love the sound of that. I want to get through 12z Tuesday before creating it. The initial blast looks respectable for the SoApps starting Thursday Night. Round 2 on Sunday is just rediculous cold region wide Yeah first blast looks like maybe some 0 degree nights but the second blast is off the chain cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks like we may have to break out the Arctic Attack Thread II. I know some of y'all just love the sound of that. I want to get through 12z Tuesday before creating it. The initial blast looks respectable for the SoApps starting Thursday Night. Round 2 on Sunday is just rediculous cold region wide All models are really impressive with these cold shots coming up. Altogether this could be one of the more impressive feb cold periods we have seen in quite some time. fwiw, the euro does have some light freezing rain around hour 192 for north ga. The canadian has the -20c isotherm down into south georgia with the gfs down to savannah. that's crazy stuff. Even mexico is not spared on the canadian. It has -10c 850mb temps making it into northern mexico at day 10. I've never seen the 0c isotherm this far south on the canadian. Surface temps around the rio grande go from near 90 on day 9 to the low to mid 20s. by the morning of day 10.I know this is day 10 and probably won't hold but it just goes to show you the potential of the airmass over north america during this range. To see such widespread freezing temps over mexico is pretty crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks like we may have to break out the Arctic Attack Thread II. I know some of y'all just love the sound of that. I want to get through 12z Tuesday before creating it. The initial blast looks respectable for the SoApps starting Thursday Night. Round 2 on Sunday is just rediculous cold region wide 12z runs of GFS/CMC/Euro have similar look - each with temps dropping fast Sat night, then high temps in the 20's here on Sunday. Western U.S. ridging retrogrades into far east Pacific and up through Alaska after the weekend cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The storm next week is a southern stream system Doesn't look to me that way, all I see is evergy diving over the pac ridge. I don't see anything under cutting that ridge, atleast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z runs of GFS/CMC/Euro have similar look - each with temps dropping fast Sat night, then high temps in the 20's here on Sunday. Western U.S. ridging retrogrades into far east Pacific and up through Alaska after the weekend cold shot Thoughts on winter threats for us? With the cold I feel like something will eventually run into it, but seems like we get cold, rain, then cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 btw, also of note..the canadian has freezing temps all the way down to south florida next monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Extreme cold is a lock, with couple shots at flurries and barking by models for synoptic snow storm in SE middle next week. Telling you Feb 13 - 20 is the real deal. Great week of winter weather for our area. Get on the train or get run over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thoughts on winter threats for us? With the cold I feel like something will eventually run into it, but seems like we get cold, rain, then cold again. Hard to beat the CRMHFM this winter (Cold Rain Model Hindcast Forecasting Method) this winter...i.e. poster Cold Rain says progged western ridges will be beaten down. I don't know, strong western ridging has to come thru and/or well-timed transient -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hard to beat the CRMHFM this winter (Cold Rain Model Hindcast Forecasting Method) this winter...i.e. poster Cold Rain says progged western ridges will be beaten down. I don't know, strong western ridging has to come thru and/or well-timed transient -NAO. LOL, nice....agreed, not impossible but yet it sure seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The storm next week is a southern stream systemit's actually northern stream that cutoffs in the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm going to go ahead and say with the models coming together on the extreme highs diving south we're not going to get any snow (outside of some flurries in NC on back end of a northern stream dominated system) in the next 10 days. So I'm accepting the cold and denying the snow until the 19th-20th+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To little to late???...I haven't looked at strat plots in weeks until HM just mentioned it...maybe sets up blocking for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Some Fish-Thoughts! Greg Fishel UPDATE! This could be one of those rare times where the long range models were on to something, but before you get too excited, let's take a more detailed look at this. There are growing signs of two pretty intense arctic shots: one Friday and perhaps an even more impressive one Sunday. The Sunday outbreak could easily result in a high temperatures in the low to mid 20s with lows near 10. Here's the bad news though. Not only is it unlikely to snow while it's that cold, it could be in the 40s with rain within 48 hours of that extreme cold occurring. As Jimmy V said, don't ever give up, but this just doesn't seem to be our year when it comes to snow, and the clock is ticking big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.