GaWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Honestly, I don't think the 0Z Goofy was a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Honestly, I don't think the 0Z Goofy was a bad run.Atleast the super cold look is back! Looks like we could be setting up a cold shot , warm up, rain , cold shot , warm up, etc pattern! kind of like the winter so far!? Just not meant to be! Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time I heard " this storm is setting the stage for the next one" or " we have to get this cutter out of the way, the next storm looks really good" , I'd be a hundredaire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That GFS run would no doubt be a candidate for Arctic Attack II...it's cold enough for the Carolinas by next Friday but mother nature dumps the mother load of cold Day 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hr 48 on Euro...Only this winter is there a h5 vort going negative that cut's off, tracking to our south, drops a ton of precip and it's a all rain. #EuroFTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The king may be serving its own dosage of idiotic cold, himself, for 2/15. Let's see how low on the IQ scale it actually is before we get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Euro is actually pretty close for northern areas of the SE for the D9 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Atleast the super cold look is back! Looks like we could be setting up a cold shot , warm up, rain , cold shot , warm up, etc pattern! kind of like the winter so far!? Just not meant to be! Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time I heard " this storm is setting the stage for the next one" or " we have to get this cutter out of the way, the next storm looks really good" , I'd be a hundredaire! Mack, you're the only one I ever hear repeating that phrase. I know you say it tongue-in-cheek every time, but perhaps you simply hear an echo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 06z GFS ensemble members looks good. Several of them have major winter storms in the 8 to 10 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Mack, you're the only one I ever hear repeating that phrase. I know you say it tongue-in-cheek every time, but perhaps you simply hear an echo?That's Bricks trademark! I just like to infringe, from time to time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thankfully the shutout ends next week. Prepare for Glory, then we can prepare for spring and put this boring winter to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Very cold from the GFS next Sunday down in the Piedmont of NC with highs staying around 20 degrees. Will it stick? I can't explain the heat bubble in NW SC though. Sunday 15FEB15 early afternoon: Images courtesy of Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The difference between 00z and 06z are simply amazing . How does any forecaster use a model that is 100% different from a run just 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Precip output is interesting, around half the members have some form of winter storm in the SE. Probably just jinx'ing it but it was a shift SE from previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That warm bubble is down sloping. Huge drop in elevation there. that's also where some of the best waterfalls are too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The bubble over GSP is from Shetleys house! He never gets any weather, just status quo, no rain, no snow , no cold, no thunderstorms, just a bubble over his yard! Compressional warming. It happens a lot in the lee of a mountainous region. It can also be a focal point of lee-side troughs, under the right conditions, see Jan 23, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Compressional warming. It happens a lot in the lee of a mountainous region. It can also be a focal point of lee-side troughs, under the right conditions, see Jan 23, 2003.Dam nuclear station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12 NAM tries to generate a little precip at hour 84. 850s would indicate possible snow or mix for eastern NC. Simulated radar at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150209+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12 NAM tries to generate a little precip at hour 84. 850s would indicate possible snow or mix for eastern NC. Simulated radar at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150209+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Can't post instantweathermaps but the GFS at 84 shows a decent hit for NE NC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It'll be in and out, but that's a big dog cold blast on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It'll be in and out, but that's a big dog cold blast on the GFSwhat cold. I thought we were torching the whole month. Lol. Yes that is very impressive. Here in the mountains that would rival last year's lows in the negative teens. Very impressive down to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Very cold from the GFS next Sunday down in the Piedmont of NC with highs staying around 20 degrees. Will it stick? I can't explain the heat bubble in NW SC though. Sunday 15FEB15 early afternoon: Images courtesy of Weatherbell That heat bubble in NW SC is what us locals call the Duke Power effect, caused by generating electricity with the nuclear reactors at this site. We have had lengthy discussions in the past in our area on a local weather blog about why our area seems to be a few degrees warmer especially when winter weather is concerned. We always have had a warm bubble of air in this immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS today is crazy cold for 12z. How we get that big of a cold push and nothing to show for it on the frontside or backside is a testament to this winter. I'm guessing highs for Sunday will be in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS today is crazy cold for 12z. How we get that big of a cold push and nothing to show for it on the frontside or backside is a testament to this winter. I'm guessing highs for Sunday will be in the 20's.It has been unbelievable that we have gotten the cold air this year but absolutely no moisture to work with when it gets cold. It amazes me how we ever got a snowstorm in the south the way this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12m12 minutes ago 12z GFS getting colder and colder for Sunday. Now daytime high of 22 for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah, the 17-18th threat is dead, the ridge is to far west, we have a Bermuda high, low tracking up in the Ohio valley. Same old crap, cold for a few days, storm cuts west of us, rain, then we cool back down. When is this going to end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Cold & Dry lol fail!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This map is showing 250mb zonal wind anomalies for Jan into early Feb. Lol, no wonder these cutoffs keep spinning over the southwest as the jet level winds there have been weaker than average. There are above avg winds there just north of Hawaii along 30N, but across N America we have the opposite of what we would like to see. That is, we have below normal winds from Baja into the Gulf of Mexico (weaker than normal southern stream there) and above normal winds across southern Canada to southern Greenland (characteristic of +AO/+NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another big snow storm at hour 264 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You would think that as many day 10 storms that have shown up that at least one of them would end up happening. Even if it does the whole disappears around day 7 and comes back again around day 5 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another big snow storm at hour 264 on the GFS. I wonder if its even worth posting anything past 200 hrs anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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