packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Comparing the Op GFS run for this Friday 12z at 192 hours out versus today's run for 120 hours out, it's not waffling on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is more like the winter of 2015, a 40N winter continues...LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is more like the winter of 2015, a 40N winter continues...LOL...Now that's a ten day map that will happen! Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What a difference on this run compared to previous GFS runs. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Now that's a ten day map that will happen! Unbelievable LOL...the Op GFS says hello spring. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 CMC agrees, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I told yall yesterday not to get excited about that. The western ridge has been getting beaten down all year. Why is that suddenly gonna stop now when all the main pattern drivers are still the same? We'll soon see if the shorter wavelength theory has any merit or if that's another predictor to throw in the trash can. We're still going to get a good snow before the winter is out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At this point, any model or forecaster predicting an extended period of cold or wintry weather should be looked at with a wrong until proven right perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GEFS says the OP is smoking that funny stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At this point, any model or forecaster predicting an extended period of cold or wintry weather should be looked at with a wrong until proven right perspective. I admit, I am a idiot, I fell for what the models were showing. I thought it was going to be an extended period of cold, with ++PNA/-EPO. Gone is the big tall ridge on the GEFS, winters over, enjoy the warmth the next few days, we will have a cool/cold shot next Fri-Sun and then back to seasonal plus/minus a few degrees. We start approaching avg highs of 60F to close out Feb, can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GEFS says the OP is smoking that funny stuff It's going the wrong way though....compare...12z on top, 18z from yesterday. Ridge isn't as strong, trough is more broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I admit, I am a idiot, I fell for what the models were showing. I thought it was going to be an extended period of cold, with ++PNA/-EPO. Gone is the big tall ridge on the GEFS, winters over, enjoy the warmth the next few days, we will have a cool/cold shot next Fri-Sun and then back to seasonal plus/minus a few degrees. We start approaching avg highs of 60F to close out Feb, can't wait. So quick to give up after one bad run. Just wait and see what happens. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's going the wrong way though....compare...12z on top, 18z from yesterday. Ridge isn't as strong, trough is more broad.Oh I agree but it's not the disaster the OP was. Truth be told the ensembles have sucked just as bad the winter for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 So quick to give up after one bad run. Just wait and see what happens. Still plenty of time. Plenty of time for what? GEFS/GFS/CMC/CMC-ENS all say no wintery precip next 10 days. Remember the cold being progged, gone, seasonal on the GEFS, same crap all winter, fantasy patterns in the 10+ day have never developed...stop chasing unicorns, enjoy the rest of seasonal Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GEFS is mean is very wet compared to the OP in the 16th-18th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GEFS is mean is very wet compared to the OP in the 16th-18th period Yep, cutter theme...you can safely shift this 100 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 And what do you know, the cold is back on the GEFS day 11+...this time it's for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Y'all just hang on, models are not going to be the same every run! We fixing the shuffle the cards and winter is going to come back like gang busters with snow/ice this this around before spring attempt's to appear in April (maybe) You just wait and see Charlie Brown!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The theme of this winter has definitely been a tall western ridge in the day 10+ only to back off in the day 7 range. I've seen it several times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GGEM has a day 8-10 system depending on locations . This run would favor the western areas like Arkansas tenn northern miss and alabama as a wave rides the front from SW to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Y'all just hang on, models are not going to be the same every run! We fixing the shuffle the cards and winter is going to come back like gang busters with snow/ice this this around before spring attempt's to appear in April (maybe) You just wait and see Charlie Brown!!!! When the deck is shuffled, we will be dealt: 2,4, 7, 9,5. Then the flop will be Jack, 10, 3I'm all in, cause JB said so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Plenty of time for what? GEFS/GFS/CMC/CMC-ENS all say no wintery precip next 10 days. Remember the cold being progged, gone, seasonal on the GEFS, same crap all winter, fantasy patterns in the 10+ day have never developed...stop chasing unicorns, enjoy the rest of seasonal Feb. And yesterday three models had a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 When the deck is shuffled, we will be dealt: 2,4, 7, 9,5. Then the flop will be Jack, 10, 3 I'm all in, cause JB said so! All reds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 And yesterday three models had a snowstorm. Not unusual to see 10 day snowstorms. Very unusual to have a cold and snowy pattern actually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not unusual to see 10 day snowstorms. Very unusual to have a cold and snowy pattern actually verify. Clearly it's foolish to expect or to be looking for a snowy pattern . There are no promising signs of that. And we are getting into the back quarter of the winter so those looking for a snowy pattern are gonna have to wait till next year. However to me it's also foolish to write the rest of winter off. Has anything worked out this winter? No does that mean we can't time an event ? No of course. The 16th-20th is still very much in play IMO It's easier to say screw it nothing is gonna happen because of the way the winter has played out so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Clearly it's foolish to expect or to be looking for a snowy pattern . There are no promising signs of that. And we are getting into the back quarter of the winter so those looking for a snowy pattern are gonna have to wait till next year. However to me it's also foolish to write the rest of winter off. Has anything worked out this winter? No does that mean we can't time an event ? No of course. The 16th-20th is still very much in play IMO It's easier to say screw it nothing is gonna happen because of the way the winter has played out so far Oh I don't disagree with you. I'm just saying that 3 models showing a snowstorm is a lot less likely to verify this year than one run of models showing an in and out cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Clearly it's foolish to expect or to be looking for a snowy pattern . There are no promising signs of that. And we are getting into the back quarter of the winter so those looking for a snowy pattern are gonna have to wait till next year. However to me it's also foolish to write the rest of winter off. Has anything worked out this winter? No does that mean we can't time an event ? No of course. The 16th-20th is still very much in play IMO It's easier to say screw it nothing is gonna happen because of the way the winter has played out so far Yep. It's getting late to expect an extended cold wintery pattern to lock in this far south. We have to hope for a one hit wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Fwiw the eps still looks good in the 16th-19th period. Four runs in a row which is a miricale on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS is probably going to show the ultimate torch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just big changes on the EPS in the 10+ day...you can see the difference below, now it has the ridge over water...also the trough in the east isn't nearly as deep and thus not as cold. Same old same old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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