Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I will ask this question again since the GFS tonight is throwing out some stupid cold... Should I trust what it's trying to tell us for late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I will ask this question again since the GFS tonight is throwing out some stupid cold... Should I trust what it's trying to tell us for late next week? It keeps insisting on it the last few runs I've seen. A modified version of it perhaps... but I just don't see it getting that cold. But hey, lots of surprises this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 00z GFS had a really close call at D10/11. Verbatim, maybe a bit of light snow, but it's suppressed south. EDIT: Looks like it has some crazy wraparound snow on Fab Feb 14th for some, too. Crazy cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As long as the GFS is throwing out extreme cold, without any precipitation along with it, you should trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS spits out a sig snow (1-4") for many on 2/17 (day 10) between cold shots as a low comes in from TX. It isn't quite a Miller A/GOM low, but it isn't real far off. What we'd need is more digging to the west/moist WSW 500 mb flow as opposed to drier W flow to actually get a classic, widespread major SE SN. Of course, many would likely be quite pleased with what this is verbatim, which is about as sig a SN as most can get without a Miller A or cutoff. This reminds me of the repeated Arctic high after high in Jan 1977 pattern though not as cold in the SE. It also was a weak Niño. That year featured a non-Gulf SN between cold shots similar to this prog. The best case is when the SE is only scraped with the bottom of these highs, which is actually more conducive to sig SN than a series of highs whose center plunges deep into the SE bringing long periods of stupid cold Keep in mind that longterm (135 years) ATL climo suggests 2/10-18 as the best shot at a major SN/IP at ATL and at least nearby SE locations. The great winter of 1894-5 had a whopping 13" of SN, the most on record. Yet, the vast majority of it fell from 2 majors between 2/11 & 2/16! That wasn't even a Niño. Niño climo tends to favor Feb-Mar SN more for niño than others. One of only two winters with 3 major storms, 1959-60, had about all of its wintry in Mar! 1978-9 had both of its majors 2/7-18! It matters very little that most have had no wintry to speak of so far. The correlation isn't high in the SE. None of us have a crystal ball. So, keep faith in the flakes/pingers to keep James happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Of the course the GFS has crazy cold and the euro says not so much as it keeps the brutal cold in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Until you see agreement inside 5 days, Marion, don't bite. It's likely overdone, quite possibly by a lot. Look for moderation on the GFS to start showing up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Of the course the GFS has crazy cold and the euro says not so much as it keeps the brutal cold in the NE. Yet, it also has a non-Gulf wintry threat for late 2/16-2/17 similar to the last two GFS runs fwiw. It is better that the stupid cold not plunge deeply down as that often keeps it too dry. It is better that the center of a BIG high drift near the OH valley still giving the SE ample cold while we get most WSW 500 mb flow overrunning the surface cold & a Miller A. That's the best recipe for a widespread SE major SN. This is still a possibility with a pattern similar to what is progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Eps has a strong signal for a miller a days 9-11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yet, it also has a non-Gulf wintry threat for late 2/16-2/17 similar to the last two GFS runs fwiw. It is better that the stupid cold not plunge deeply down as that often keeps it too dry. It is better that the center of a BIG high drift near the OH valley still giving the SE ample cold while we get most WSW 500 mb flow overrunning the surface cold & a Miller A. That's the best recipe for a widespread SE major SN. This is still a possibility with a pattern similar to what is progged. Just looked at the models. You just know the models are overdoing it, but man that's some serious and long lasting cold on the GFS, especially the 6z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Eps has a strong signal for a miller a days 9-11! I'll come up to the mountains and maybe we can watch it cut through TN together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yet, it also has a non-Gulf wintry threat for late 2/16-2/17 similar to the last two GFS runs fwiw. It is better that the stupid cold not plunge deeply down as that often keeps it too dry. It is better that the center of a BIG high drift near the OH valley still giving the SE ample cold while we get most WSW 500 mb flow overrunning the surface cold & a Miller A. That's the best recipe for a widespread SE major SN. This is still a possibility with a pattern similar to what is progged.we need the trough axis to setup along the Mississippi, not new England. That crap has gotten old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Keep the brutal cold over the Ohio Valley and NE and give me just one good wet Miller A and the cold air would funnel in nicely. At this point. I'd take it and then be ready for spring. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'll come up to the mountains and maybe we can watch it cut through TN together! if you want to experience a cold rain forest come to sw north Carolina. Can't wait for more flooding rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 if you want to experience a cold rain forest come to sw north Carolina. Can't wait for more flooding rain. Here in GSO, we are exactly normal so far for Dec/Jan average temperature wise but are 3 inches below normal in Precip for Dec/Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12Z Euro is the 2nd in a row that shows a major wintry threat for the 2/16-7 period. This run shows mainly major ZR/IP for mainly well inland areas but also some SN, esp. in NC/TN. Fwiw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12Z Euro is the 2nd in a row that shows a major wintry threat for the 2/16-7 period. This run shows mainly major ZR/IP for mainly well inland areas but also some SN, esp. in NC/TN. Fwiw! Interestinfg, pure NS system, the baja low doesn't get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well it does fit the time period that some have touted as having potential its not the way it was supposed to get there although it appears some southern energy gets involved. Anyway here are some snow and ice accumulations via EuroWx.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12Z EPS concurs with a 2/16-7 wintry threat fwiw and is similar to the 0Z EPS but colder (some NC/TN SN but still lots of ZR/IP CAD areas ). QPF is ~0.50", a sig. amount, especially for a more northern stream system as opposed to Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If the GFS is right ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If the GFS is right ... what temps are the gfs spitting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 what temps are the gfs spitting out? Below freezing during day for 2 days across most of North Carolina but nothing lower than 15 overnight. Way too early to look at details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12Z EPS concurs with a 2/16-7 wintry threat fwiw and is similar to the 0Z EPS but colder (some NC/TN SN but still lots of ZR/IP CAD areas ). QPF is ~0.50", a sig. amount, especially for a more northern stream system as opposed to Miller. Yeah, looks to be two camps, not surprisingly, Oh-V/Apps runners and SE coastals. What it's spitting out for cold after day 5 through the end of the run is insane, matches up with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Control FTW... Edit: The mean is snowy days 10-15 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Great to see some agreement and consistency with the models for a change. The only bad thing is it is 10 days out, and we know how that has gone this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh Hell it does not take a Red Tagger to know that will change 8 times in 15 days.. Everyone is getting cranky because it has not snowed. I get it. But the 1st snow last year was Jan 29th So let see how it plays out... Oh yes, So we can do this in the same place next year, How about we lite up the donation board, It's lQQking a lil DIM... And a little light on what we need we are only half way to what is needed to keep this ALIVE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh yes, So we can do this in the same place next year, How about we lite up the donation board, It's lQQking a lil DIM... And a little light on what we need we are only half way to what is needed to keep this ALIVE.. Amen, brother, sister, aunt, uncle and everyone else .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 171hr was close on the 00z GFS, probably some flurries over NC...but it's all northern stream dominant so we all know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Don't shoot me as I'm just a friendly messenger. So, please put the guns (and knives) away. That having been said, the 0Z GFS appears to be coming in significantly warmer than the prior three runs for around 2/15-6. That's not what I wanted to see at all. Let's see where this leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Don't shoot me as I'm just a friendly messenger. So, please put the guns (and knives) away. That having been said, the 0Z GFS appears to be coming in significantly warmer than the prior three runs for around 2/15-6. That's not what I wanted to see at all. Let's see where this leads. What about the means? from what I can see on the 18z gefs and it's members, we shouldn't be worried...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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