mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Past hour 300, there is a ice/snow storm just for you.Yep, 324 hr GFS miller B !Tomorrow , I'm gonna let Brick start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yep, 324 hr GFS miller B ! Tomorrow , I'm gonna let Brick start the thread! Sadly, it's around the timeframe I'd expect an ice storm down this way again. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 As I said eariler, probably be a big snow as the bassmaster classic rolls into the upstate feb 20-22! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 RAH did mention that there could be some light flurries tomorrow morning; but they thought the odds where low enough not to add to the forecast grids: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W PROJECTED TOCROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THURSDAY. N-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT A COLDER ANDDRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDDISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING NW-SE. WRF MODELSSUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVELTROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO DEFICIENTTO SUPPORT PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A BRIEFSNOW FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THECHANCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THEFORECAST AT THIS TIME.LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A DIURNAL TEMPERATURERECOVERY OF 8-10 DEGREES. HIGHS TEMPS THU LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50SE. NW WINDS WILL AID AN ADDITIONAL BIT TO THE AIR WITH GUSTS AROUND25 MPH HIGHLY PROBABLE.THURSDAY NIGHT...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION.THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL AID TO DIMINISH THE SFC WINDS BY LATEEVENING. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR PRIME NOCTURNALCOOLING CONDITIONS...LEADING TO MIN TEMPS IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE. 6z highe resolution NAM simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F06%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=sim_reflectivity&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150204+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 LOL...Nah, not this year. It's just going to sit around Baja and spin for a while. It actually goes southwest to get the favorite spot for the closed lows this season. Imagine that The Baja is a great vacation spot for lows this year Please maintain faith in the flakes. The flakes will never fail you, except most of the time. BTW, 00z UKMET at hr 144, FWIW: yay!! rain! Past hour 300, there is a ice/snow storm just for you. Wooo hooo! Another fantasy clipper storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Like the 00z run, the 12z Euro isn't that far off with the D7 ULL "potential." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 9+ day period still looks the best it's been all winter, although not a superb winter pattern for us, but still better than anything we saw in Dec/Jan. If this comes to fruition we are going to trip and fall in to a few flakes...I do fully expect BOS to make a run at a 100" for the season. Just for comparison sakes I also posted the 5 day cold spell we had in Jan and how it differs greatly from the models are progged for now... Edit: Only worry is losing the ridging over the pole, all winter that's been beaten down, if that happens it's more of the same crap we have seen the past 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pack, lower heights across the southern tier is good news for precip chances...if it verifies. How awesome would it be to see some reds showing up over Greenland? I guess we'll have to wait till April and May for that. Hopefully, we'll see that pattern lock in the rest of the winter. If not, the shutout* continues. My traceman is looking pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pack, lower heights across the southern tier is good news for precip chances...if it verifies. How awesome would it be to see some reds showing up over Greenland? I guess we'll have to wait till April and May for that. Yep, the higher heights south/east of us in January sucked for getting snow here, finally that should change. Unfortunately when the pattern does change it will be mid-Feb and will leave us realistic at most 3 weeks, after the first few days of March it gets really tough to get snow here. Last winter was a great example, we had 33F and rain while SuperJames is racking it up. It's not a big snow pattern so we can still get a 1-3" event and the winter will still suck big time, so we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The CPC analogs have Feb 1980 showing up a couple of times, only thing missing is the -AO, curse you SAI! RDU had 18+" of snow in 3 week span (Feb 7-March1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z gfs says no storm next week. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm all in for the 13-15th! Per 18z GFS! It's not there yet, but that moisture in TX is probably going to not get squashed and that monster high may have something diving due south and pop something in the gulf or form a low along that arctic front! Just something to watch, with nothing else going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm all in for the 13-15th! Per 18z GFS! It's not there yet, but that moisture in TX is probably going to not get squashed and that monster high may have something diving due south and pop something in the gulf or form a low along that arctic front! Just something to watch, with nothing else going on!meh! It's either 35 and rain or 25 and sunny. Rain followed by cold followed by more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 0z runs suck that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It looks like the trough axis on the 0Z Euro will likely end up being a little further west than the 12Z though it would still remain to be seen if that would allow more moisture interaction late in the run as the Arctic high comes down to the north (unlikely but a nice baby step), It still didn't allow for moisture in the SE though it is a good bit colder and there is a nice -NAO. To show how cold it is, it has NYC with a high on 2/13 of only near 10 and a low on 2/14 below 0! If anything it is sometimes warm biased at 2M. Could easily be record cold for much of the NE. On day 10, one can see a 2nd Arctic high starting to come down from N Canada with help from a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Feb 17th or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Models look cold and dry in the long range....ironically we get some blocking....but it's a dry clipperfest. Trough is in the wrong place. Idn't grand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Models look cold and dry in the long range....ironically we get some blocking....but it's a dry clipperfest. Trough is in the wrong place. Idn't grand? Yep next 10 days will be dry, models are hinting around at more activity after the 15th. The lack of rain is much welcomed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The lack of rain showing up is bothersome. I'm afraid the rubber band is getting ready to snap right as growing season is approaching. You can definetly see the spigot has been turned off. We are due a hot dry summer, been escaping them for the most part the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The lack of rain showing up is bothersome. I'm afraid the rubber band is getting ready to snap right as growing season is approaching. You can definetly see the spigot has been turned off. We are due a hot dry summer, been escaping them for the most part the past few years. But we would go into spring with abundant ground moisture and filled reservoirs. Most bad droughts start with a dry winter. Now if we continue to be dry for the next 12 months, 2016 could be very bad. And I do agree "we're due" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 But we would go into spring with abundant ground moisture and filled reservoirs. Most bad droughts start with a dry winter. Now if we continue to be dry for the next 12 months, 2016 could be very bad. And I do agree "we're due" Deserves banter "my comment" but i agree were way over due last summer was awesome, not to hot but good outdoor weather. I had my doubts at first with the new gfs. But here lately its starting to grab my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 But we would go into spring with abundant ground moisture and filled reservoirs. Most bad droughts start with a dry winter. Now if we continue to be dry for the next 12 months, 2016 could be very bad. And I do agree "we're due" It hasn't been wet here. I've only had 2.49" since Jan 1. A good soaker would be beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 FWIW WPC 75%ile which is an OK chance gives the NE coast of NC a trace in next 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well the 12Z GFS says cold and dry in the LR and then . . . we get another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS would start a pretty lengthy cold spell starting just after day 6. Not much in terms of fantasy snow except for a gulf system at day 16. Important thing is the cold signal. Very good chance we end up with January and February with below normal temps. Sad thing it will probably also have below snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro brings out the cut off roughly day 9-10 and has good signal for coastal day 11...has a +PNA pattern through end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That looks nice, Pack.... D11, though, but I'm all-in... I see you must have renewed your subscriptions, too. The EPS control run cuts the D11 storm to Indiana, but has a decent ice storm for N NC before going over to rain, BTW. It then transfers off of the Delmarva and annihilates the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 HM is excited about something on twitter....I have no ideas about what though. Haggle fraggle AAM, propogation, Nino, Bomb something something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 HM is excited about something on twitter....I have no ideas about what though. Haggle fraggle AAM, propogation, Nino, Bomb something something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That looks nice, Pack.... D11, though, but I'm all-in... I see you must have renewed your subscriptions, too. The EPS control run cuts the D11 storm to Indiana, but has a decent ice storm for N NC before going over to rain, BTW. It then transfers off of the Delmarva and annihilates the NE. Yep, we are playing with fire with the +NAO, need good timing as always. But with the trough axis east I am hoping that helps. I could easily see this cutting. With roughly 2 weeks of winter left when this potential comes about this may be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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