Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You can see @180 it's close but no cigar. If that energy in the south were slower it would probably be a big hit. yeah the storm either needs to slow down, or the cold needs to speed up...the low looks way too fast to me but that may just be wishful thinking...timing is crucial, we're thinning a needle but it could be huge. @186, 995 off the coast of NC with the 540 line touching NC/VA line. A small change could make it fantasy in one run. -40 850's below the hudson bay and we can't get the 0c 850 line into NC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I agree, the weak -AO got a little stronger, the weak -NAO got a little stronger, the PAC ridge/-EPO got a little better. All that added up to the PV shifting south a little which made all the difference in the world, but we need a little more southern stream interaction to have more precip but not to much. Verbatim, central NC get's precip holed and all the snow is confined to central VA. After the look of the previous model runs, that's beautiful...We just need small changes to actually provide at least a small event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What's those red colors doing over the pole, strange. I wonder what would happen if the PV would drop just a little bit more right after this onto the backside of the southern stream wave... Way back in the day I believe this was called a negative AO phase I believe? I've also heard myths of this supposed negative NAO phase as well. Someone shoot me a PM if there is every a real threat within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 While we are still having to rely on the fantasy range for winter weather, I have been paying more and more attention at the broad picture. A total of 3 separate rain events through 192 hours with the 4th being the winter threat. This train of low pressure systems lays down a path of 2-4 inches QPF through day 7 with about. 90 percent of the Southeast getting at least 1 inch of rain. If nothing else the ground moisture content is increasing with each passing week. That will be more of interest to us once we get to Spring and convective weather season Increasing indeed - honestly we are already really soggy around here. Our rain total for December was 9.7 inches, and so far in January we have gotten 8.1 inches. This is about double the normal rainfall totals for the last 60 days (December's average is just below 4", and January average is 5"). We all joke about cold rain, but we've had a lot of it around here. There are parts of my property that are semi-permanent mud bogs right now. For both December and thus far in January we've had rain on fully 50% of the days. And this aspect of the prevailing pattern doesn't look to change soon, with so many more moisture events stacked up in the short to medium term. (I'm not ungrateful - the drought a few years ago sucked.) If we had any significant length of time with true cold and little sun, I'd be able to ice skate on all the mud slicks in my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Increasing indeed - honestly we are already really soggy around here. Our rain total for December was 9.7 inches, and so far in January we have gotten 8.1 inches. This is about double the normal rainfall totals for the last 60 days (December's average is just below 4", and January average is 5"). We all joke about cold rain, but we've had a lot of it around here. There are parts of my property that are semi-permanent mud bogs right now. For both December and thus far in January we've had rain on fully 50% of the days. And this aspect of the prevailing pattern doesn't look to change soon, with so many more moisture events stacked up in the short to medium term. (I'm not ungrateful - the drought a few years ago sucked.) If we had any significant length of time with true cold and little sun, I'd be able to ice skate on all the mud slicks in my back yard. That's quite impressive. Atlanta had a little over 5" for December and a little over 4" for January. So you've had over 8" more than Atlanta and you're not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's quite impressive. Atlanta had a little over 5" for December and a little over 4" for January. So you've had over 8" more than Atlanta and you're not far away. It's a little astonishing to me that the airport totals are so low, but I guess it should not be, as they generally have higher temps and less precip than us, anecdotally. We got 4" just from that big rainstorm that happened January 1-4, up here. And we've had 10 more rainy days since then. All those .25 and .5 days add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You guys in Georgia have picked up a bit more rain than I have in Western North Carolina but it's been plenty wet up here too...and anytime it gets above 50 degrees this time of year, the ground thaws out and leaves nothing but mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EPS is improved, looks like it tracks the weak low just over Florence to off HAT day 5. Great run for NW NC into VA and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EPS is improved, looks like it tracks the weak low just over Florence to off HAT day 5. Great run for NW NC into VA and TN. That's not a terrible run for west of 85. Move it 50-75 miles east and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's a little astonishing to me that the airport totals are so low, but I guess it should not be, as they generally have higher temps and less precip than us, anecdotally. We got 4" just from that big rainstorm that happened January 1-4, up here. And we've had 10 more rainy days since then. All those .25 and .5 days add up.[/quoteUp here Dec. total 3.03 and so far for Jan. 3.59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 RAH not jumping on any potential at this point: SUN THROUGH MON: THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE NORTHERNSTREAM S/W TROUGH (REFERENCED ABOVE) AS IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE MIDDLEATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOWREFLECTION IN RECENT NWP RUNS IS CONSEQUENTLY MUCH WEAKER AND MORESUPPRESSED THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THEGUIDANCE TRENDS BACK TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM LIFTING UP WEST OF THEAPPALACHIANS...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE SUNDAY NIGHTIN EITHER SCENARIO. BEFOREHAND...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY DAY FORCENTRAL NC...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM TOP-DOWN SATURATIONOVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND WITH HIGHS WELLBELOW FULL SUN VALUES - MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50DEGREES. THE FLATTER/WEAKER SFC SOLUTIONS DO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ONPRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR MON...HOWEVER...SUCH THATTHE BULK OF THE DAY WOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATESTMODEL TRENDS...WITH CAA-DRIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TOAROUND 50 DEGREES.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED: BENEATH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BEHIND THEDEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH...POST-FRONTAL...CONTINENTALPOLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MON NIGHT-TUE...THEN DRIFTOFFSHORE TUE NIGHT-WED. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EVOLVING UPPER LOWNEAR THE BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERNUS...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GOM TO THESOUTHEAST US COAST...THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASINGPRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC...INTO THE SLIGHT TO CHANCERANGE...BY EARLY WED. PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULDSUPPORT JUST A CHILLY RAIN. Man we haven't had a chilly rain in a long time............................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 RAH not jumping on any potential at this point: SUN THROUGH MON: THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH (REFERENCED ABOVE) AS IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REFLECTION IN RECENT NWP RUNS IS CONSEQUENTLY MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE GUIDANCE TRENDS BACK TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM LIFTING UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN EITHER SCENARIO. BEFOREHAND...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY DAY FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM TOP-DOWN SATURATION OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW FULL SUN VALUES - MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE FLATTER/WEAKER SFC SOLUTIONS DO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR MON...HOWEVER...SUCH THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY WOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WITH CAA-DRIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MON NIGHT THROUGH WED: BENEATH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH...POST-FRONTAL...CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MON NIGHT-TUE...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT-WED. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC...INTO THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE RANGE...BY EARLY WED. PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT JUST A CHILLY RAIN. Man we haven't had a chilly rain in a long time............................................................. Even with a temp of 27 degrees in Raleigh on Wednesday morning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GSP is leaving the door open with their thoughts on Sunday-Monday. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPINGTHE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THEBEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFFTO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOWTEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWFPROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Shift it 50 miles SE would be interesting, still 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Shift it 50 miles SE would be interesting, still 5 days away. Again, I dont mind that look at all, especially for my region. Maybe the euro is due for another 50 mile miss to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There isn't much eps support for the wed/ Thursday system the OP shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There isn't much eps support for the wed/ Thursday system the OP shows EPS mean has SLP just off the SE coast, precip max is in the SE during days 7-8, roughly .7-.8" precip for central NC/SC/GA. I am not saying it's going to snow but the EPS does show a signal for a storm, big signal. Like everything else this winter it will probably falter as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EPS snow graphs look as enthused for D7 as any point this winter. 10 out of 50 are a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 12z UKMET made a huge shift for the D5 storm today, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z northern energy is a lot weaker this run is going to be colder it appears out to 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z northern energy is a lot weaker this run is going to be colder it appears out to 87.Yes. Colder and weaker at 105. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yes. Colder and weaker at 105. Sent from my iPhone One of those the weaker it is the less chance of snow we have.....the stronger it is the less chance of snow we have lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z northern energy is a lot weaker this run is going to be colder it appears out to 87. Ya, what a shift today from the 12z model runs....Is it right? Heck, who knows...but I Will say this....ALL season long the northern stream has been pushy/dominant. It really doesn't surprise me to see it pushing around that energy and just pushing a weaker system through. Also, nice colder push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That -push into Greenland on the EPS mean looks really good. Can't say it's for real yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Was that a D5 flizzard for N NC on the GFS... pending 2m temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is too warm for the 2/4 - 2/5 storm but I do like the energy diving in behind it....won't big a deep south solution like the 12z but it still might give us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Shift it 50 miles SE would be interesting, still 5 days away. If we could have that LP track more off ILM or Myrtle Beach actually we'd have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z looks close to that super frigid CMC look past hour 200....kind of squashes our energy there is light snow over parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z pinches off a lobe of the PV and drops it all the way overhead of CLT....with that you should get some arctic front snow and you can see it @252....not likely to happen but a very cool look that you don't see often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You don't see this everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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