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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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hm...newest gfs run may be catching on to the threat for next week on the euro. not far off from something big.

 

EDIT: it stalls offshore the obx and deepens to 994mb before moving away after hr 174, obx gets hammered as it deepens offshore.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

 

Would have been a fun run had it closed off earlier, it closes off right after this frame, March 09 redux...

 

Edit:  If it's not one thing it's another the kicker system ain't going to help.

post-2311-0-91602300-1423003383_thumb.pn

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Can you post a map or maps, or is it pay site and not allowed?

 

It's pay.. and its the control run of an ensemble run.. really just something funny to look at.  I haven't seen it do anything good this season so far when it comes to Winter weather.  It's just nasty, it'd probably have Winter weather your way too though. (jk)  Way out there and nutty.

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It's pay.. and its the control run of an ensemble run.. really just something funny to look at.  I haven't seen it do anything good this season so far when it comes to Winter weather.  It's just nasty, it'd probably have Winter weather your way too though. (jk)  Way out there and nutty.

 What I figured  lol

 

Here's hoping, anyway!

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Pretty sick flizzard, anyways.  Nice weenie stripe of flizzard in central NC!

 

March '09 repeat inbound.......  :weenie:

 

LOL...Nah, not this year.  It's just going to sit around Baja and spin for a while.  It actually goes southwest to get the favorite spot for the closed lows this season.

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Well atleast the models are starting to look like crap in the 8-10 day range, and not giving us false hope! We all know how lows over central NC are going to go, and it won't be in our favor. With those lame 1020 highs coming from Canada, I just can't find a positive in the LR GFS , except that at day 15, we will be more than half way through Fab Feb and bringing up March 1960 , to keep the faith! Pathetic

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Well atleast the models are starting to look like crap in the 8-10 day range, and not giving us false hope! We all know how lows over central NC are going to go, and it won't be in our favor. With those lame 1020 highs coming from Canada, I just can't find a positive in the LR GFS , except that at day 15, we will be more than half way through Fab Feb and bringing up March 1960 , to keep the faith! Pathetic

Past hour 300, there is a ice/snow storm just for you.

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Well atleast the models are starting to look like crap in the 8-10 day range, and not giving us false hope! We all know how lows over central NC are going to go, and it won't be in our favor. With those lame 1020 highs coming from Canada, I just can't find a positive in the LR GFS , except that at day 15, we will be more than half way through Fab Feb and bringing up March 1960 , to keep the faith! Pathetic

 

The D7-8 "threat" would be from a ULL trailing behind the surface low, so the surface low tracking over us isn't necessarily a disaster.  For example, recall during two recent ULL snowstorms (March 2009 and January 2013), we saw heavy rain change to heavy snow.

 

Of course, it's just a fantasy threat that has about a 5% chance of panning out, at best.

 

---

 

Anyways, the 00z GGEM has a closed ULL tracking through S NC/N SC.  However, it's not very strong at 552 dm and is inconsequential.

 

EDIT: Looks like it might have a changeover to some snow, at least solely basing it on 850s.

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I remember the Mar 09, scored about 8 inches. Do not remember Jan 13, must have been rain here

 

Looks like it was.

 

In both events, the immediate foothills got screwed over.

 

accum.20130117.gif

 

It was a pretty fun changeover here.  Heavy rain to heavy snow and it started sticking just like that, even with temperatures of 33-34.  Then the power went out and the fun kind of stopped since it was at night and you couldn't see the snow anymore, but it was memorable in a sense.  It was strange to see it drop 3-5" of snow around here while Mt. Airy barely got anything but heavy rain.

 

Holy crap at that immediate leeside screwzone in March '09... :yikes:

 

accum.20090302.gif

 

Of course, the Fab Feb 13, 2014 winter storm also had a trailing ULL destroy portions of the foothills after the "main" system rolled through the day before.

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