packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yup. Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) in the West should shift eastward and the Pacific jet should accelerate/extend, allowing for a milder stretch (and wetter for the West Coast!) for most of the U.S. Thereafter, the Pacific jet should retract, allowing heights to rise across Alaska/Western North America and returning us to below-average temperatures. Very repetitive pattern this winter. Agreed, rinse cycle repeat and it will probably last through spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yup. Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) in the West should shift eastward and the Pacific jet should accelerate/extend, allowing for a milder stretch (and wetter for the West Coast!) for most of the U.S. Thereafter, the Pacific jet should retract, allowing heights to rise across Alaska/Western North America and returning us to below-average temperatures. Very repetitive pattern this winter. Amazing how this works, just yesterday & the day before the models were generally (or comparatively so) quite favorable for some sort of wintry weather in the carolinas late this week, and now of course since that time, the Equatorial 200VP forecasts have changed, keeping -VP away from the 30-60E longitude for at least a few more days, I doubt this is just another coincidence. Darn -IOD... 200VP anomaly forecast from yesterday... Today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think it's a bit ridiculous to completely give up on winter when we still have a the rest of February and even some of March to see winter precip. It amazes me to see how everyone hugs those models, when they have not been at all reliable thus far this winter. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45377-winters-in-charlotte-that-began-with-no-snow-in-december-and-january/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That was craziest EPS run I have ever seen. Strong signal at day 7 a low dives south, all the way to practically GA/FL border and then slowly bombs and rides up the coast over the next 2 days. The EPS mean has 2-4" over the bulk of NC, with snow on the mean in all of GA/SC too. Obviously overdone, but that how we roll this winter, eye candy FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 We've had a heck of a fantasy snow year. I'm probably close to three feet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That was craziest EPS run I have ever seen. Strong signal at day 7 a low dives south, all the way to practically GA/FL border and then slowly bombs and rides up the coast over the next 2 days. The EPS mean has 2-4" over the bulk of NC, with snow on the mean in all of GA/SC too. Obviously overdone, but that how we roll this winter, eye candy FTW... Both the mean and control have this general idea. The control is pretty darn good looking for Eastern SC/NC even. I've been very interested in the period between the 10-19th and personally think its going to be the time for something to finally produce around the Carolinas & Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 We've had a heck of a fantasy snow year. I'm probably close to three feet now. Get used to it, your going to get it and like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Get used to it, your going to get it and like it... It's almost like a sick joke is being played on us. We get what we think is a great setup; along with fantasy runs giving us 10" + snow just to dash our dreams at the day 5/6 mark. We tend to all realize that day 7 model runs should be taken lightly but if you keep seeing nice setups being pulled away it really does become depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's almost like a sick joke is being played on us. We get what we think is a great setup; along with fantasy runs giving us 10" + snow just to dash our dreams at the day 5/6 mark. We tend to all realize that day 7 model runs should be taken lightly but if you keep seeing nice setups being pulled away it really does become depressing. Gone are the days when the Euro and EPS would show strong agreement at day 7 for a potential event and we take it seriously. Now we just laugh. This is several runs in a row the EPS has showed this solution. We know it's going to fall apart and turn into a major snow storm for Boston, the question isn't "if", it's "how much for BOS". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z NAM looks like it wants to create some backend snow at 72 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 NAM is def. interesting. If it were not past 60 hours I might be a little more excited. Has just enough energy to maybe eek out a dusting for someone in NC. Very reminiscent of Feb. 2013. This is ALOT like that event. Southern wave coming through ushering in a cold front with energy coming on the backside. The day before that event the NAM had my area with like a .1 max jut to the east. Ended up getting close to 3 inches. These things can surprise if the energy is strong enough and that's what we need to watch on the NAM. Can it keep trending stronger so when it comes overhead it just wrings out everything it can from the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Grasping at straws here but I wonder if the GFS and NAM start keeping that southern energy closed off for longer? 18z already doing that and wobbles it a bit further north than it's previous runs. Energy in the north looks a little better as well. Can this trend in our favor at the last second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Is there is any support for the euro and its ensembles (180hr) on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Is there is any support for the euro and its ensembles (180hr) on the 18z gfs Yes, to progressive on the GFS though, miss wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yes, to progressive on the GFS though, miss wide right. Hmmm..might bear watching, but like was mentioned earlier the euro tends to pull the ball at 5 days. That's only about 3 more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Grasping at straws here but I wonder if the GFS and NAM start keeping that southern energy closed off for longer? 18z already doing that and wobbles it a bit further north than it's previous runs. Energy in the north looks a little better as well. Can this trend in our favor at the last second? I'd say its possible due to very recent trends. Though best chances are probably central NC into SE VA at this point. I believe the energy won't be fully sampled for the first time until tonight and the short range models might have something to say about the storm. Of course still need a lot of things to go right, but the storm bears watching IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd say its possible due to very recent trends. Though best chances are probably central NC into SE VA at this point. I believe the energy won't be fully sampled for the first time until tonight and the short range models might have something to say about the storm. Of course still need a lot of things to go right, but the storm bears watching IMO. I agree with burger as well...it's hard to completely trash this storm right now. I was comparing voriticity maps on the Euro runs, 12z looks improved in the northern stream digging. I haven't had much time to analyze much else, but there are subtle changes that can go our way with a little bit of luck, although not expecting it so I'm not surprised people have moved on to next week's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Actually I'm as enthused about this system as I have been in the past 36hrs. You have 3 pieces of energy here and definetly one, possibly all 3 that haven't been in a good sampling area for the models. Plus noticed a subtle up tick in qpf at 18z, along with the hinting at some of these 3 pieces of energy being able to flex up a little more thanks to through possibly being a lite more deeper and neutral sooner. If you can get to .2 - .3 qpf at the right time with the cold air, trust me you'll be a happy camper. That oppurtunity is very much on the table for the sw mtns of NC and NE NC and SE VA. Just a hair tweek here or there at 5h will get the ground white for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Actually I'm as enthused about this system as I have been in the past 36hrs. You have 3 pieces of energy here and definetly one, possibly all 3 that haven't been in a good sampling area for the models. Plus noticed a subtle up tick in qpf at 18z, along with the hinting at some of these 3 pieces of energy being able to flex up a little more thanks to through possibly being a lite more deeper and neutral sooner. If you can get to .2 - .3 qpf at the right time with the cold air, trust me you'll be a happy camper. That oppurtunity is very much on the table for the sw mtns of NC and NE NC and SE VA. Just a hair tweek here or there at 5h will get the ground white for some folks. There was an uptick in moisture on the 18z gfs and GEFS all across the south . 18z NAM showed this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If the ridge gets beat down out west, then forget about it. If it can sharpen up, then we could work something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If the ridge gets beat down out west, then forget about it. If it can sharpen up, then we could work something out.True dat ! It's so close now, we can start using NAM as gospel, RUC, Rap, ! Kind of like freezingdrizzlegeddon , sometimes they really catch on, most of the time, it's just a weenies last grasp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If the ridge gets beat down out west, then forget about it. If it can sharpen up, then we could work something out.It looked like the ridge was a tad sharper at 18z than the 12z run on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z runs begins. may the luck be our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z NAM's trended badly. Lets see what GFS and Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks like the northern stream of moisture is going to be WAY slower than the southern batch on 0z goofy ....and it dries up to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Today's control run tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Today's control run tho I haven't seen it yet. What's it showing(for entertainment purposes only)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I haven't seen it yet. What's it showing(for entertainment purposes only)? I saw a max of 21 inches. Snow in every county in MS/AL/GA/NC/SC. Day 13.5-Day 15 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I saw a max of 21 inches. Snow in every county in MS/AL/GA/NC/SC. Day 13.5-Day 15 though. "We're playing those mind games together." - John Lennon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Hell would freeze over before that Euro control run would verify. Too bad we can't get a look like that within 3 days. The only upside I see is that it's in my 10-19th projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.