metwannabe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z NAM would be a fail. The trailing energy is too flat. Not enough digging . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z NAM would be a fail. The trailing energy is too flat. Not enough digging .flow is almost zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z NAM would be a fail. The trailing energy is too flat. Not enough digging . always bad news never seem to have good or positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I see we are off to a lovely start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z NAM would be a fail. The trailing energy is too flat. Not enough digging . To give it some credit ... the southern flow at the start was slower with more ridging, then it went meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I have a feeling the GFS is going to be a little better at 00z. Southern energy looks a little better and northern energy looks a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I have a feeling the GFS is going to be a little better at 00z. Southern energy looks a little better and northern energy looks a little stronger. looks a little better for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Better, but not quite there. If that Baja low can stay a little stronger and ridging can get a little better. Big if's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Better, but not quite there. If that Baja low can stay a little stronger and ridging can get a little better. Big if's though. Looked pretty darn close to a triple phase if im not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 At least we have much better moisture showing up. An improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Better, but not quite there. If that Baja low can stay a little stronger and ridging can get a little better. Big if's though. Yeah, it was closer, but that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades... It was a better look, for sure, though. Definitely better than the dumpster fire 12z and 18z runs. Maybe now we're trend better until the end... but that's wishful thinking. Can't wait for this thing to phase into a bomb and run up the Apps, then destroy New England, though. --- The 00z JMA looks to be pumping the ridge more. You see that, Pack? It's hard to tell if it would be meaningful without better maps, though. I think it only goes out to 72 hours at 00z. I probably shouldn't be looking at the JMA, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah, it was closer, but that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades... It was a better look, for sure, though. Definitely better than the dumpster fire 12z and 18z runs. Maybe now we're trend better until the end... but that's wishful thinking. Can't wait for this thing to phase into a bomb and run up the Apps, then destroy New England, though. --- The 00z JMA looks to be pumping the ridge more. You see that, Pack? It's hard to tell if it would be meaningful without better maps, though. I think it only goes out to 72 hours at 00z. I probably shouldn't be looking at the JMA, anyways. UK has a SLP off the benchmark. Probably Euro'ish. I don't have the JMA yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 UK has a SLP off the benchmark. Probably Euro'ish. Yep. I think this is where we use the UKMET's progressive bias to correct it back towards the coast a bit or something, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looked pretty darn close to a triple phase if im not mistaken It was interesting for sure, the ridge flattening is a killer, it was a little better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The Euro sucks, for those inquiring minds who want the bad news. (D5 "storm") It does pound Boston, though. Probably around a foot. It did trend stronger with the coastal, but I just see no way that's going to be cold enough for us at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think this is game, set match, fat lady singing, etc. No storm for us. Bring on Spring I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This winter is turning out to be an complete disaster. So many professionals were calling for cold and snowy. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This winter is turning out to be an complete disaster. So many professionals were calling for cold and snowy. Ugh.calling for a cold an rainy winter would have been a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Models sucked last night. I'm not throwing in the towel on winter but I'm pretty durn close. The trend this winter just isn't our friend. The NE has the hot hand and it looks to stay that way for at least the next week. Good thing I have lots of work to do in the real world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The Euro sucks, for those inquiring minds who want the bad news. (D5 "storm") It does pound Boston, though. Probably around a foot. It did trend stronger with the coastal, but I just see no way that's going to be cold enough for us at this point. LOL, I admit, when I saw the GFS giving places to our SE and a nice snowstorm I thought there was a chance. And this thing is trending stronger/deeper but only does that as it approaches Boston. Even they have to be getting sick of snow. This winter is about riding the hot hand, Boston get's all the snow and our hot hand is the non-measurable snow streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not even fantasy long range storms on 6 z GFS , time to close the book on this winter!?however, I have heard from a well respected poster(weenie) That it's definately going to snow in the next two weeks! I think it was said" it can't not snow, signals are too strong"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z gfs is a miss. What's hurting us right now is the ridge out west not pumping up like it was on earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 winter is a miss. What's hurting us right now is the ridge out west not pumping up like it was on earlier runs.Fixed that for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z gfs is a miss. What's hurting us right now is the ridge out west not pumping up like it was on earlier runs. Fixed that for ya! LOL...yeah if you look at the GFS at 54 you think just maybe but it goes to crap quickly after this frame. There is really only one thing missing, a better ridge in the west would go a long way, but all models are in agreement of it flattening. Edit: I think it would be better if the PV over the lakes would just swing east and allow the energy coming down over CO/KS, what we were seeing a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z gfs is a miss. What's hurting us right now is the ridge out west not pumping up like it was on earlier runs. This one is done. Inside 80 hours now. We are not gonna see a drastic swing in the positive direction. As you said the ridge which saved us last year continues to fail us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Currently we are in a -PNA state for only the third time since Dec.1st. That surely isn't gonna help the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Currently we are in a -PNA state for only the third time since Dec.1st. That surely isn't gonna help the ridge out west. Nope, not even a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There is some hope for better weather though...this should bring a smile to everyone's face. It will be cold Thursday/Friday and start moderating Sat and we are nice Sunday for a period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That same horse that was lying there dead on December 1st, 2014 is the same horse lying there dead today and will still be lying there dead mid March. I'll save all the analogies, editorial comments for the biggest seasonal forecast in the history of mankind till March when JB is sneaking in grades of C- etc. And cohen, what's he plan on doing in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There is some hope for better weather though...this should bring a smile to everyone's face. It will be cold Thursday/Friday and start moderating Sat and we are nice Sunday for a period... Yup. Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) in the West should shift eastward and the Pacific jet should accelerate/extend, allowing for a milder stretch (and wetter for the West Coast!) for most of the U.S. Thereafter, the Pacific jet should retract, allowing heights to rise across Alaska/Western North America and returning us to below-average temperatures. Very repetitive pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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