metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 More 12z eps members are starting to show light snow around Arkansas northern miss and bama and tenn from the trailing energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 More 12z eps members are starting to show light snow around Arkansas northern miss and bama and tenn from the trailing energy Just looking at that, the EPS hasn't hasn't had a consistent run yet for this potential. But with that said, none of the changes have amounted to snow for NC/SC yet. Edit: Although I should admit, there are a few members that have very light snow across NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just looking at that, the EPS hasn't hasn't had a consistent run yet for this potential. But with that said, none of the changes have amounted to snow for NC/SC yet. Edit: Although I should admit, there are a few members that have very light snow across NC/SC. Oh I agree 100% in no consistent run yet. I was taking a glance at the 12z eps and for the areas I mentioned there a few more members vs 00z showing something light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro ensembles do show some members with a more westward dig to the Thursday system- I do think a minor T-1" snow like the GFS shows is not totally off the table, but more than that seems pretty unlikely. As far as the fantasy 9-10 day storm goes, all members show a digging trough, but a lot of spread, and the cold air looks marginal. I do think storm # 2 may have a bit more potential, especially since I will miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well, the huge fantasy storm is now on day 8 instead of day 10... Progress?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we do not believe the Euro with the next system but are getting worked up about a storm at 216 hours? Same story all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Oh I agree 100% in no consistent run yet. I was taking a glance at the 12z eps and for the areas I mentioned there a few more members vs 00z showing something light Yep, plus there hasn't been a single event all winter modeled close to reality at this range. Doesn't mean it's got to change for the better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro ensembles do show some members with a more westward dig to the Thursday system- I do think a minor T-1" snow like the GFS shows is not totally off the table, but more than that seems pretty unlikely. As far as the fantasy 9-10 day storm goes, all members show a digging trough, but a lot of spread, and the cold air looks marginal. I do think storm # 2 may have a bit more potential, especially since I will miss it.March 93 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z NAM does not bring the cold air down as fast as the 12 GFS It does develop more moisture over the SE but of course temps are too warm. 12z GFS at 90: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150201+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 18z NAM at 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150201+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 March 93 redux? Come on now don't start that. You are smarter than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z NAM does not bring the cold air down as fast as the 12 GFS It does develop more moisture over the SE but of course temps are too warm. 12z GFS at 90: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150201+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 18z NAM at 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150201+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model As you said, temperatures are too warm, but the 18z DGEX (extending off the NAM) does develop a nice coastal. We really need it to slow down, though, and allow the cold air to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS just really put the hammer to it. Our coach has turned into a pumpkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS just really put the hammer to it. Our coach has turned into a pumpkin. suppression is the name of the game. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS just really put the hammer to it. Our coach has turned into a pumpkin.Trends have been turrible since 6z GFS today, oh well , the week after next will produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GFS just really put the hammer to it. Our coach has turned into a pumpkin. It was evident early our west coast ridge was going to get flattened, not even close to what happened at 0z/6z. This happened early in the run too... 18z on top, 6z on bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There isn't even a storm on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 12z EPS is really enthused about the D8-9 storm, so there's that. The beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 suppression is the name of the game. Sent from my iPhone Suppression is the last thing on my list. Without the ridge sharper and shortwave further west this one is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 12z EPS is really enthused about the D8-9 storm, so there's that. The beat goes on... They were big on the feb 5-6 period about six days ago as well. And we see where that one is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They were big on the feb 5-6 period about six days ago as well. And we see where that one is headed LOL, no doubt. I'm a sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It was evident early our west coast ridge was going to get flattened, not even close to what happened at 0z/6z. This happened early in the run too... 18z on top, 6z on bottom. Unreal, all in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Suppression is the last thing on my list. Without the ridge sharper and shortwave further west this one is doneI meant the game ( tried to be funny) on this run of the GFS. I agree, this is not good...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Unreal, all in 12 hours Well, going to wait until 12z tomorrow but it's not good trends from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 2/1/15, 14:12 Wishcasting -- not something you see often -- like every decade ECMWF 9-day forecast (#uncertainty = #high) pic.twitter.com/UBMNj5Xh5P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 12z EPS is really enthused about the D8-9 storm, so there's that. The beat goes on... I agree but did you check out the 4-5 day one? If anyone has weatherbell go here: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.phpand click "+LOW LOCATIONS" compare the mean from 00z to 12z...that should tell you the OP runs of the GFS are silly little children and we need to wait for the king to speak tonight. What a trend in the right direction...such a tight cluster of 1002-1004ish lows at 96hrs below SC then a pretty tight cluster off of the NC coast at 102...this goose isn't cooked, but I will admit, the snowfall on the members is quite small T-1" ish on a lot of them, no big dogs like the 00z had, but the EPS mean is finding the system. Whether or not the cold will be there is another story, but I don't agree with the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I agree but did you check out the 4-5 day one? If anyone has weatherbell go here: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.phpand click "+LOW LOCATIONS" compare the mean from 00z to 12z...that should tell you the OP runs of the GFS are silly little children and we need to wait for the king to speak tonight. What a trend in the right direction...such a tight cluster of 1002-1004ish lows at 96hrs below SC then a pretty tight cluster off of the NC coast at 102...this goose isn't cooked, but I will admit, the snowfall on the members is quite small T-1" ish on a lot of them, no big dogs like the 00z had, but the EPS mean is finding the system. Whether or not the cold will be there is another story, but I don't agree with the 18z GFS. Yeah, they do look better now that you mention it. In addition, the Euro op did show a decent coastal, though a little too far out to sea. Warmth is going to be an issue with any coastal we get, but I guess we might as well give it a shot. EDIT: Yeah, they look a lot better. The EPS basically had zero support for a coastal at 00z, but now there's strong support for one. I'm just not sure if the coastal really has any potential to be cold enough at this point. I'm not really enthused at the moment, but I'm not going to give up yet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GEFS .......meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anybody know how the 18z gfs looks for the 9-10 day storm the 12z euro was showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anybody know how the 18z gfs looks for the 9-10 day storm the 12z euro was showing?Wasn't there at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hot off the presses.....Do we all get on the cliff for this storm, and winter? or can we maybe, just maybe get some wintry weather around the SE. Details in the video on MY thoughts on them.. Thanks for watching. please like my page if you want. Thanks again. Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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