burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ok so I think for the deep South the trend is not good... NC however I would not be writing this off. Euro went from that low tracking across the FL panhandle in the southern wave and just fizzing out to now going into SC and turning into a weak mess. The trend on the Euro is that the southern wave is staying stronger and not getting totally suppressed. This is also what the CMC was seeing. The big wild card is of course that northern energy. I think we know for sure come Tuesday once that system to our north clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes, but now there is NO support from any model for any sort of really significant storm in the SE, even the Canadian is just maybe a couple of inches. One thing about the Euro, if it waffles around like it did with the last NE storm, then it can be way off. But if it is rock solid consistent saying no chance, then there is probably no chance. I would love to be dead wrong, but not feelin' this one. At what point did the Euro come around to actually showing a storm? For the Boston Blizzard, I mean. It latched on pretty late, if I'm remembering correctly. I'm skeptical of snow with this right now, but we've seen the GFS, UK, Navgem, CMC, and JMA all show a system of varying strength and track over the last 24 hrs. Snow is a low probability event, but I would put the chance of a system of some sort affecting a good portion of the SE with precip at at least 50% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At what point did the Euro come around to actually showing a storm? For the Boston Blizzard, I mean. It latched on pretty late, if I'm revering correctly. I'm skeptical of snow with this right now, but we've seen the GFS, UK, Navgem, CMC, and JMA all show a system of varying strength and track over the last 24 hrs. Snow is a low probability event, but I would put the chance of a system of some sort affecting a good portion of the SE with precip at at least 50% right now.It wasn't until the Saturday 12z suite that showed a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro has a beast, just day 8. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think everybody is jumping ship a little too early here. The 00z Euro gave me a few inches last night, the 06z GFS hammered many. Heck, even today's GFS run gave north GA an inch or two of snow with the shortwave passage. Also, there's plenty of massive hits on the 12z GFS ensembles. If you take a look at the latest SREF members you'll notice the majority of them are setting up for a massive storm with strong CAD thanks to them quickly shunting the far northern parcel of energy to the east. This is a long way from over, and I personally have a good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro shows 8-10"" for RDU, 2ft for eastern Nc. day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro shows 8-10"" for RDU, 2ft for eastern Nc. day 8-9. Third run in a row with major snow for either us or the Mid-Atlantic in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think everybody is jumping ship a little too early here. The 00z Euro gave me a few inches last night, the 06z GFS hammered many. Heck, even today's GFS run gave north GA an inch or two of snow with the shortwave passage. Also, there's plenty of massive hits on the 12z GFS ensembles. If you take a look at the latest SREF members you'll notice the majority of them are setting up for a massive storm with strong CAD thanks to them quickly shunting the far northern parcel of energy to the east. This is a long way from over, and I personally have a good feeling about this one. Thanks for the awesome disco today folks!! I assume, like myself, we ride 2/6 system until the wheel come off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro shows 8-10"" for RDU, 2ft for eastern Nc. day 8-9. :( :( I'll be in Phoenix. :( :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look at that Euro day 10 clown map! 30" in NE NC, and basically uniform 1ft+ east of 95 through NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 :( :( I'll be in Phoenix. :( :( Really? That would suck but it may be the type of sacrifice the snow gods need to pull it off, so I along with the rest of the NC crew at least would like to thank you for taking one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes, but now there is NO support from any model for any sort of really significant storm in the SE, even the Canadian is just maybe a couple of inches. One thing about the Euro, if it waffles around like it did with the last NE storm, then it can be way off. But if it is rock solid consistent saying no chance, then there is probably no chance. I would love to be dead wrong, but not feelin' this one. Agree with this 1000000% It would be a miracle if there is a snow storm in the SE this week!!! Now it's always wrong when it's showing snow in the SE?? (that's what is unreal) If I had on the ground now, What the Euro snow maps have shown since November my house would be buried..... #unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_9z/srefloop.html Check out the "ARW2" member for some eye candy. That member is setting up for a massive winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 :( :( I'll be in Phoenix. :( :( It will be just as non-snowy there as it will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Really? That would suck but it may be the type of sacrifice the snow gods need to pull it off, so I along with the rest of the NC crew at least would like to thank you for taking one for the team. This will be the one 10 day storm that actually pans out. :crying: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So are we using this thread now for the Feb 6 event or the actual Feb 6 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It wasn't until the Saturday 12z suite that showed a blockbuster. Thanks. I thought it was around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This will be the one 10 day storm that actually pans out. :crying:The Friday storm is setting the table for the following week, grab your sporks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look at that Euro day 10 clown map! 30" in NE NC, and basically uniform 1ft+ east of 95 through NC and SC. No way we don't get through the next two weeks without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 More fuel to the fire- I will be out of the country from the 9th to the 25th, Get those snow shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 More fuel to the fire- I will be out of the country from the 9th to the 25th, Get those snow shovels ready. I'm going to be in Peru for a week from around March 7th-15th or so. March is gonna be rockin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 goodness. here is the monster on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we do not believe the Euro with the next system but are getting worked up about a storm at 216 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we do not believe the Euro with the next system but are getting worked up about a storm at 216 hours? It's what we do, Cheez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This will be the one 10 day storm that actually pans out. :crying: I'm with you CR. I'm in Dallas that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we do not believe the Euro with the next system but are getting worked up about a storm at 216 hours? It's just looking past the one for this week. Really, if it is right about this week and next week, that is fine with me with what it is showing for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So are we using this thread now for the Feb 6 event or the actual Feb 6 thread? Still complaining? I actually decided to go 5 days out with this thread just to make you happy. What changed in the last six months? Agree, but it does give me a chance to put something out there. This winter, we are not going to start event threads because something shows up on the 10 day GFS. So how long do we wait? 3 days out? 2? Still discussing it. My vote is no more than 5 days out. Before that it should be discussed in the general winter thread. That sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's just looking past the one for this week. Really, if it is right about this week and next week, that is fine with me with what it is showing for next week. ....meaningful comment formulated.... ....uplink successful.... ....comment upload in progress.... ....signal intercepted.... ....brickbot override engaged.... ....brickbot comment database online.... ....comment randomizer deployed.... ....selection approved.... ....uploading.... ....upload successful.... ....brickbot terminated.... ....meaningful comment upload failed.... ....end session.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just trying to clarify what the rule is. If it is 3 days out or 5 or 7, whatever is cool with me. I just think everyone should be aware and decide on a certain time period so there is no question about it. Sorry, I didn't remember that from 6 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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