burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look at the difference at 500mb... Now imagine what would happen if the northern energy for our storm succumbs to this same trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS has really been struggling with the strength of the northern stream energy the past few weeks. If we're going to see one of those changes, it'll likely be when the NS energy is accurately sampled over Canada. The same thing happened with last week's blizzard and, as you pointed out, the ongoing winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NavGEM was close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CMC very close to a big dog with that southern energy almost turning into a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CMC FTW...big winter storm for central/eastern NC and parts of SC. TN get's it good to. Edit: Correction, temps are 1-2F to warm but very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RDU close to a crush job on the CMC....our southern energy takes about the perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CMC FTW...big winter storm for central/eastern NC and parts of SC. TN get's it good to. Edit: Correction, temps are 1-2F to warm but very close. You can see the CMC sucking down cold air into the system. That is about a perfect track for CLT east. Hope the Euro takes this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS has really been struggling with the strength of the northern stream energy the past few weeks. If we're going to see one of those changes, it'll likely be when the NS energy is accurately sampled over Canada. The same thing happened with last week's blizzard and, as you pointed out, the ongoing winter storm. Exactly. It's been quite entertaining to watch the dramatic northward shifts inside 5 days w/ the last few storms on the eastern seaboard. Just rehatching what's been said here, it's hilarious to think the GFS still thought the I-64 corridor, Washington DC, & Richmond, VA were in the game w/ the current system that's blasting the I-80/90 corridors w/ snow from Chicago to Boston, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Behold....and take with a giant grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Behold....and take with a giant grain of salt. Just a little to positively tilted, close though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 BTW 06z ensembles with a 1036 high over ohio @136....and more moisture over the carolinas...that's what I'm talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Behold....and take with a giant grain of salt. man! All that moisture falls with the 0c line in the foothills, can't make it's way to RDU and east fast enough, cold chasing moisture but great bomb....snow NE NC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 BTW 06z ensembles with a 1036 high over ohio @136....and more moisture over the carolinas...that's what I'm talking about!CMC looks great! Jon, when you get excited, we should all be excited! Burger, packbacker, Shawn , Superjames , thanks for all the pbp's, they are much appreciated and looked forward to!S/o to Burrell2, good work guys ! Where is GaWx!??,??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GEFS still has a nice signal, has 0.25" precip back to ATL-GSP-GSO and 0.5" price confined to eastern NC (95 east) with 0.75" from ILM to OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Slow down everyone- the Op GFS backs way off and now looks like the much less impressive Euro- are we really going to rely on the Canadian? The Ukie has also backed off. I am still not that excited about this one- we really need to see the Euro come in with a deeper northern short wave, at least here in north GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's the 108hr forecast for Todays storm compared with Todays 12hr forecast..... The GFS is EXACTLY where we want it right now. I honestly don't trust any of the models right now though to be honest. Although I tend to think it's going to be on the weaker side of things, just based on climo and the rarity of such an event, The amount of variability at this range has been absurd this year and given that even the slightest changes aloft means big differences at the surface with this system it certainly could be more significant. So far it seems the 12z gfs is the outlier right now with how it's handling the northern stream sw. It figures though it trends more impressive with each run then boom it goes 180 degrees the other way. One thing that hasn't been talked about much is IF a heavier precipitation event happens, cold air won't be a problem at the surface. The 06z gfs for example had temps way down in the low to mid 20s during the \daytime along the coast..which was just astonishing to see. I mean it's one thing to get a big storm but it's even rarer to see one that is so cold down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would be nearly sold if these Equatorial VP forecasts verify for a CCKW currently developing over S America to move towards Africa & the far western Indian Ocean by late this week. I would feel far more comfortable about this if the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) wasn't so negative,... the cold water upwelling off the east coast Africa is going to try & fight any impending upward motion induced by the equatorial waves. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Slow down everyone- the Op GFS backs way off and now looks like the much less impressive Euro- are we really going to rely on the Canadian? The Ukie has also backed off. I am still not that excited about this one- we really need to see the Euro come in with a deeper northern short wave, at least here in north GA The 00z EPS mean for snow is actually all the way down close to the FL panhandle, first time I've seen that type of signature for a SE snow this year. A handful of members have big dogs, one of which is widespread 12-24"+ from GA/SC line up to NC/VA line. It wouldn't take much for the models to get back in-line and start agreeing with each other, we're 5+ days out we all know that.. I wouldn't say we're all hugging the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I honestly don't trust any of the models right now though to be honest. Although I tend to think it's going to be on the weaker side of things, just based on climo and the rarity of such an event, The amount of variability at this range has been absurd this year and given that even the slightest changes aloft means big differences at the surface with this system it certainly could be more significant. So far it seems the 12z gfs is the outlier right now with how it's handling the northern stream sw. It figures though it trends more impressive with each run then boom it goes 180 degrees the other way. One thing that hasn't been talked about much is IF a heavier precipitation event happens, cold air won't be a problem at the surface. The 06z gfs for example had temps way down in the low to mid 20s during the \daytime along the coast..which was just astonishing to see. I mean it's one thing to get a big storm but it's even rarer to see one that is so cold down that way. hey buddy!! Agreed!! There doesn't appear, AS of now, that the 2m temps will a problem at all. And, I honestly don't expect them too. FRESH good snow cover over NE, a nice high, fairly strong will be more than enough to deliver the good low level cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 EURO, through hr 78 is a bit taller with the pac ridge vs 00z run. VERY impressive cold push up north. southern energy has a SFC low in mid gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks underwhelming again. Just a frontal passage with maybe a few flurries. Since not even one of the Euro runs has even hinted at something for many days now, it probably ain't happening, especially since it is now only 120 hours out. Just cannot get the western ridge to amplify enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Like I mentioned before, the trend has been for a less amplified western ridge all winter. Not sure why that would change now. Maybe it will at some point. If it doesn't, we'll be closed for business. The 12z GFS has southern storm after southern Storm as far as the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks underwhelming again. Just a frontal passage with maybe a few flurries. Since not even one of the Euro runs has even hinted at something for many days now, it probably ain't happening, especially since it is now only 120 hours out. Just cannot get the western ridge to amplify enough. Just because it was the Euro? Wasn't it the same model that had the last NE storm show up 3 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It was also the model that overdid the NE Blizzard for much of the the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 00z EPS mean for snow is actually all the way down close to the FL panhandle, first time I've seen that type of signature for a SE snow this year. A handful of members have big dogs, one of which is widespread 12-24"+ from GA/SC line up to NC/VA line. It wouldn't take much for the models to get back in-line and start agreeing with each other, we're 5+ days out we all know that.. I wouldn't say we're all hugging the Canadian. Jon, Your PM is full and not accepting new messages. How about sending me a map, just for laughs? Thanks, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Like I mentioned before, the trend has been for a less amplified western ridge all winter. Not sure why that would change now. Maybe it will at some point. If it doesn't, we'll be closed for business. The 12z GFS has southern storm after southern Storm as far as the eye can see. The trend all winter has also been for a lot of precip, not like what the Euro shows but more like the other models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks underwhelming again. Just a frontal passage with maybe a few flurries. Since not even one of the Euro runs has even hinted at something for many days now, it probably ain't happening, especially since it is now only 120 hours out. Just cannot get the western ridge to amplify enough. agreed. when we are relying on the canadian and ukie you know you are grasping at straws. not a hint of a big dog on the euro and the gfs seems to be coming back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 EURO, through hr 78 is a bit taller with the pac ridge vs 00z run. VERY impressive cold push up north. southern energy has a SFC low in mid gulf Like I mentioned before, the trend has been for a less amplified western ridge all winter. Not sure why that would change now. Maybe it will at some point. If it doesn't, we'll be closed for business. The 12z GFS has southern storm after southern Storm as far as the eye can see. The western US ridge has actually strengthened ever so-slightly on the new ECMWF and the ensembles over the last few days have generally ticked upward to some degree w/ the heights, & in fact, the trend for erroneously high heights over the North Pacific in the medium range by the euro suite that's been prevalent for the majority of the winter thus far, has started to reverse within the last week or so and it appears the steadily shortening wavelengths & higher frequency waves is also leading to poor handling of anticylonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic, and thus the NAO forecasts have been too high (positive) of late as result... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just because it was the Euro? Wasn't it the same model that had the last NE storm show up 3 days out? Yes, but now there is NO support from any model for any sort of really significant storm in the SE, even the Canadian is just maybe a couple of inches. One thing about the Euro, if it waffles around like it did with the last NE storm, then it can be way off. But if it is rock solid consistent saying no chance, then there is probably no chance. I would love to be dead wrong, but not feelin' this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The western US ridge has actually strengthened ever so-slightly on the new ECMWF and the ensembles over the last few days have generally ticked upward to some degree w/ the heights, & in fact, the trend for erroneously high heights over the North Pacific in the medium range by the euro suite that's been prevalent for the majority of the winter thus far, has started to reverse within the last week or so and it appears the steadily shortening wavelengths & higher frequency waves is also leading to poor handling of anticylonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic, and thus the NAO forecasts have been too high (positive) of late as result... That's all good news, if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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