J.C. Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I just can't get over how consistent the GFS has been with this storm, or maybe I'm just shocked it's still there. I'm more concerned about the upper level energy and cold air then there being enough moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When you come around and post, it's a legitimate threat I've learned over the years. Right now, its a whole Hell of a lot of sleet down your way, but that can change for the better or worse. I'm sure we'll see many different scenarios painted between now and game time so to speak. In a nutshell, this will be my test of how the new GFS performs WRT this one and how it ultimately plays out. The Euro has been really waffling this year and probably has done the worst I've ever seen but that should be expected in the Racer X flow scheme this winter. Fortunately, the current GFS depiction on 6z isn't a ZR setup and the upper trough associated with this has a decent cold core region which would make sense with the snow and large sleet area. This will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm sure we'll see many different scenarios painted between now and game time so to speak. In a nutshell, this will be my test of how the new GFS performs WRT this one and how it ultimately plays out. The Euro has been really waffling this year and probably has done the worst I've ever seen but that should be expected in the Racer X flow scheme this winter. Fortunately, the current GFS depiction on 6z isn't a ZR setup and the upper trough associated with this has a decent cold core region which would make sense with the snow and large sleet area. This will be fun to watch. Thats a GREAT post, Mike....The euro has not done the greatest this year for a very simple and basic flaw it has.......its not as good *at times* with this VERY FAST flow, and northern stream dominated winter. GFS *and sometimes the crazy uncle (CMC)* do the BEST with fast and progressive flows. I mentioned earlier that I think the GFS could be the leader on this one because of it. PLUS, since this is northern stream/flow vs a southern branch/stream piece, it could be close to right since they have been OVER performing this year. Unlike the crappy southern stream vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the 1040 high is that strong and in that position on 6z GFS , cold will not even remotely be a concern, especially over the fresh snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the 1040 high is that strong and in that position on 6z GFS , cold will not even remotely be a concern, especially over the fresh snowpack! #agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS already a tick north with the Baja low and a little stronger at 72. A little faster, but everything seems faster by a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That strong off a high could limit precip though. Still a ways to go. Excited to see what 12z brings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Novice question, why is TWC still forecasting mid 40's to 50's in this time frame? Different models? Sorry if this is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NS energy is much weaker this run, ridging out west isn't as good to, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, this will be a miss, the NS energy isn't digging nearly as far SW as 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z GFS will not be close to the 06z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z GFS not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z GFS will not be close to the 06z solution. LOL, yeah it's essentially a cold front, so much for the north trend. Changes were evident fairly early on too, hour 72 or so it's not like we are using the it's still 5 days away excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 @111 light qpf of GA would be supportive of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LOL, yeah it's essentially a cold front, so much for the north trend. Changes were evident fairly early on too, hour 72 or so it's not like we are using the it's still 5 days away excuse.This is normal, GFS loses storms at 5 days out, if the Euro still has it,ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't know if I buy what the southern wave is doing on the GFS. It kind of stretches it out then spins off a piece of energy off of it and then just kind of dissipates. Will have to see other models come on board with that before I believe it. Then to add insult to injury that backside energy just doesn't have much juice with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Figured there were going to be large changes. Wait it out until day 2. Are we ready for a thread for this system yet or too far out? Not sure if the mods are going by 5 days or 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Our ridging isn't as good as 0z/6z, better ridging more NW it will come, fine line between supressed and a winter storm for the SE. Bummer, the +PNA should be helping us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FWIW, KCAE had 10 members of GEFS with Winter weather on 00z. It went up to 12 on the 06z. Not amazing, but some of the better I've seen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still got a shot. 12z Nam looked more promising and we always knew we were threading the needle. Slight changes in speed & amplitude of the mid level energy will mean everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still got a shot. 12z Nam looked more promising and we always knew we were threading the needle. Slight changes in speed & amplitude of the mid level energy will mean everything. Do you think the NAM hate is blown out of proportion? Has it been doing okay in your eyes for the majority of this season down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Figured there were going to be large changes. Wait it out until day 2. Are we ready for a thread for this system yet or too far out? Not sure if the mods are going by 5 days or 3 now. No. Not yet. I wouldn't bother starting one until about 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No. Not yet. I wouldn't bother starting one until about 48 hours out. Okay. These medium range PBP threads were definitely a good idea especially with the model swings we've been looking at all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Okay. These medium range PBP threads were definitely a good idea especially with the model swings we've been looking at all year. Yep, we are 0-2 today. UK a huge miss, GFS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the NS s/w in question is not on the data network right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Do you think the NAM hate is blown out of proportion? Has it been doing okay in your eyes for the majority of this season down here? I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours. I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The nam looks like the storm is out running the cold! Maybe I'm seeing it wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's the 108hr forecast for Todays storm compared with Todays 12hr forecast..... The GFS is EXACTLY where we want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the NS s/w in question is not on the data network right now. Nope....not yet....it's still hangin out in the gulf of alaska I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours. I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy. Agree.....until then.....all solutions will be on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours. I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy. it's way up north and you are correct. Sit tight the big boys are fixing to run, ukie euro and jma, along with crazy uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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