Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This just makes me laugh for the fact I haven't had a single inch of snow up this way all year and SC is possibly going to have a significant event. Crazy stuff although it's still 4-5 days so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RAH still not buying it in latest discussion. Still playing conservative given model guidance. As is normally the case, their strategy has served them very well this year. I hope this time will be different. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This just makes me laugh for the fact I haven't had a single inch of snow up this way all year and SC is possibly going to have a significant event. Crazy stuff although it's still 4-5 days so.. It's all statistics man. At the start of the season folks that live higher in latitude and inland/elevation have much higher odds of ending the winter with more snow accumulation than folks to the SE; but if everybody is skunked until the last part of winter the odds of somebody SE receiving more snow than somebody NW get better (although never to 50%). At this point somebody in the SE could beat DC in total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z GFS snow accumulations at hour 144: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=06&fhour=144¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Someone screen capture this and post it, nice snow map. Love the snow hole. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015020100&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=0 mby has been slotted The GFS is nothing if not consistent- still skeptical but who knows....stranger things have happened. Very consistent....lol Of course here in GA I prefer the GFS solution over the Canadian, but still want to see the Euro come on board for any of us to get too worked up over this system... Me too and I would expect that to happen (for the good or bad) today and tomorrow IF IF IF the GFS Para (new GFS) sniffs this out and scores a win, I'll begin to respect the upgrade. In all honesty, this solution actually would not surprise me as much as normal. An old saying of what happened in November, February will remember. I also hate being jackpot 5 days out as well. On an unscientific note, last year I got my tax refund the same day (Feb 12) as the nasty icestorm hit. I'm slated to get mine this year on Friday. That's a lot of ifs I'm all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This just makes me laugh for the fact I haven't had a single inch of snow up this way all year and SC is possibly going to have a significant event. Crazy stuff although it's still 4-5 days so.. I have zero doubt that this will trend North and those of us in VA and NC will start worrying about temps more than precip. It is just too hard to bet against the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It would be foolish of any professional met who serves in a public capacity to a large population to jump on board with this right now. The big guys probably wouldn't jump on this until Tuesday morning at the earliest. Right now it's a complicated setup that involves a lot of good timing. Northern energy hasn't even been sampled yet so it's a big guessing game. I do like the trends of the GFS, it will be interesting to see what the Euro has to say today. I expect we keep seeing that heavy precip shield move north and west just like the storm last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Paging GaWx....paging GaWx. A possible Deep South snow/ice event that might include areas like SAV and no sign of Larry? I usually keep my excitement level down until GaWx starts honking. Where are you, Larry? Please report in with some historical data and analogs so we can better gauge the validity of this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just nuts... Another piece of energy diving down in Nebraska/KS almost catches the vort that is already going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 CAE 06zgfs........I haven't seen fantasy snow like this is a while 150206/0300Z 117 05019KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0150206/0600Z 120 04018KT 27.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150206/0900Z 123 04021KT 24.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0150206/1200Z 126 04021KT 21.5F SNOW 12:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.297 11:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0150206/1500Z 129 03016KT 21.5F SNOW 11:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.288 11:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0150206/1800Z 132 02019KT 22.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 11:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150206/2100Z 135 02016KT 24.7F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.131 10:1| 9.5|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.09 22| 78| 0150207/0000Z 138 02011KT 24.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 9.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0150207/0300Z 141 02010KT 25.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 9.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.11 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This one is the real deal folks. 6z GFS WxBell clown maxes out at 2 feet near Charleston...that would be historic, to say the least. We'll go ahead and say that won't happen...but the models have not let up about pusing mositure off the coast I think since 240+ literally I was watching this storm when others were focused on other events, but this one looked like it has the most potential (and still does)...as much as I want to give coastal SC people hope, I think this is bogus...850's look too warm and I just don't buy the way the low reforms...there is essentally 3 areas of low pressure in something like 18 hours, don't buy it. Would love to see a phase then again worried about track at that point and if it's cold enough. This storm is a coinflip, I hope it works out for some of us and really gets the ball rolling in feburary. I have two exams this week so I check the disco here early morning and before bedtime so thanks for the pbp guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just nuts... = Another piece of energy diving down in Nebraska/KS almost catches the vort that is already going negative. I can't believe this winter has produced a vorticity map that looks like this. Good lord we need it to work out for us or I'm jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yep: Who needs a Super Bowl when we can watch and root for something like this? I was in Charleston in Feb. 73 ... truly a landmark event! This one is the real deal folks. 6z GFS WxBell clown maxes out at 2 feet near Charleston...that would be historic, to say the least. We'll go ahead and say that won't happen...but the models have not let up about pusing mositure off the coast I think since 240+ literally I was watching this storm when others were focused on other events, but this one looked like it has the most potential (and still does)...as much as I want to give coastal SC people hope, I think this is bogus...850's look too warm and I just don't buy the way the low reforms...there is essentally 3 areas of low pressure in something like 18 hours, don't buy it. Would love to see a phase then again worried about track at that point and if it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just got a chance to look at last night 0z euro and the 6z gfs. Good to see the euro take a step in the right direction. The 6z gfs is exactly what I've been looking for w/ through going negative. Hopefully it'll continue to trend that way. Still a long ways to go with this one. Just look at where the storm tonight/tomorrow is going and what we though last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Another great discussion from CAE .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONGER TERMPERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROMTHURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. STILL SEEMS TO BE LITTLE CONSISTENCYIN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN AND TIMING FROM RUN TORUN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS DO TRYTO BRING SOME PRECIP THROUGH ON THURSDAY...THEY SEEM TO BE TRYINGTO NOW FOCUS MORE OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THEDAY. THEN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEY TRY TOBRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE MAINUPPER SHORTWAVE...BEFORE PUSHING EVERYTHING EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAYMORNING. AT THIS TIME THE PRECIP FOR THE DAY AND EARLY EVENINGHOURS ON THURSDAY WILL BE RAINFALL. THEN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHTINTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR AMIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...THENWORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATING WITH SURFACETEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING...AND WITH VERY COLD COREOF TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGSAT THIS TIME INDICATE MUCH OF THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING...WITHSOME MOISTURE IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO AS THE COLUMNCOOLS OVERNIGHT...RAIN COULD CHANCE TO RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW.IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT ISONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...AND QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BELIGHT. THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH POPSAND TEMPS THAT FAR OUT...WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE LOWCONFIDENCE FORECAST. ALSO THIS SYSTEM IS 5 DAYS OUT...SO MUCH CANCHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMALTHROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yep: Who needs a Super Bowl when we can watch and root for something like this? I was in Charleston in Feb. 73 ... truly a landmark event! Statistically and historically a storm of that significance is highly unlikely here in the Charleston area. Not gonna lie..I would revel in it. The 850's look too warm to support such a storm but it's got my attention!! I'd be happy with even a few inches of the white stuff. Going to be an interesting week of model watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Statistically and historically a storm of that significance is highly unlikely here in the Charleston area. Not gonna lie..I would revel in it. The 850's look too warm to support such a storm but it's got my attention!! I'd be happy with even a few inches of the white stuff. Going to be an interesting week of model watching! Absolutely agree on the 850s for now. Perhaps heavy precip could force additional cooling at that level. If so, things could get ... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like JZI and LRO are IP when the precip starts on Friday. If I had to guess, I'd say that's where they'd stay with the storm modeled as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It looks interesting, I will say that at least. I just don't know....Too many factors to line up right now. I will say this is coming from the northern branch/stream, so I will give it more weight/possibility since that has really been the ONLY stream to see any sort of promise and not just falling apart *ie the southern stream* this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CAE 06zgfs........I haven't seen fantasy snow like this is a while 150206/0300Z 117 05019KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 150206/0600Z 120 04018KT 27.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150206/0900Z 123 04021KT 24.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 150206/1200Z 126 04021KT 21.5F SNOW 12:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.297 11:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0 150206/1500Z 129 03016KT 21.5F SNOW 11:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.288 11:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 150206/1800Z 132 02019KT 22.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 11:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150206/2100Z 135 02016KT 24.7F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.131 10:1| 9.5|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.09 22| 78| 0 150207/0000Z 138 02011KT 24.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 9.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 150207/0300Z 141 02010KT 25.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 9.6|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.11 0| 0| 0 Snow with temps in the low 20's, nice! If there is an event and there is a HP in a favorable spot the extensive snowpack being laid down will go a long way of getting snow down to central/southern GA/SC. GFS has Boston on Friday with a high of 6F and a low of -15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If I look at this from a local perspective, the .3 line is as close as Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 06Z GFS Precip types say CHS gets giant sleet storm. WB and other clown maps are counting this as snow at 10:1 ratio I'm guessing. This makes sense given the more phased solution on the 06Z as the mid-level warm nose sneaks further northwest when systems really wind up. Columbia looks like it will remain all snow however. On another note I think the conservative approach is the correct one this year with the model disagreement we have seen even just 24 hours ahead of these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temps into the low 20s and snow in CAE!! That should make Buckeye feel like she's back home! I am excited about this storm, and last nights runs, cautiously optimistic , may be a better term! I feel we will see this shift NW, but slightly, so the vast majority , from CAE-RAH get frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If I look at this from a local perspective, the .3 line is as close as Lancaster. Creeping North as shown.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have zero doubt that this will trend North and those of us in VA and NC will start worrying about temps more than precip. It is just too hard to bet against the seasonal trend. Great trends overnight. No way this will be suppressed based on the pattern we have been in all winter. Precip has already started trending north and will not be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I know it's easy to get excited in SC guys, but just wait it out. A lot of things are probably going to change in the near future. 5 days away. There will be precip, but I'm very worried for Sleet/ZR for some depending on the Low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KCHS has mentioned now in their AFD about the possibility of frozen precipitation could develop if model soundings come in colder and wetter so I guess I'm going to have to think about rounding some of my old links and see if I can figure this one out. Guess I'm getting sucked in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KCHS has mentioned now in their AFD about the possibility of frozen precipitation could develop if model soundings come in colder and wetter so I guess I'm going to have to think about rounding some of my old links and see if I can figure this one out. Guess I'm getting sucked in a little bit. When you come around and post, it's a legitimate threat I've learned over the years. Right now, its a whole Hell of a lot of sleet down your way, but that can change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow with temps in the low 20's, nice! If there is an event and there is a HP in a favorable spot the extensive snowpack being laid down will go a long way of getting snow down to central/southern GA/SC. GFS has Boston on Friday with a high of 6F and a low of -15F. That's the favorite word of this winter KCHS has mentioned now in their AFD about the possibility of frozen precipitation could develop if model soundings come in colder and wetter so I guess I'm going to have to think about rounding some of my old links and see if I can figure this one out. Guess I'm getting sucked in a little bit. Come on in.....I was sucked in for the first time this winter when I started this thread btw.....I like the discussion out of CHS this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KCHS has mentioned now in their AFD about the possibility of frozen precipitation could develop if model soundings come in colder and wetter so I guess I'm going to have to think about rounding some of my old links and see if I can figure this one out. Guess I'm getting sucked in a little bit. hehehehehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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