burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CMC is practically a lakes cutter for 2/2-2/4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There's Marietta's winter storm! (until 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CMC drops the cold hammer down at 210 but no energy to work with. Gotta keep these looks of real arctic air and something will be bound to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 12 gfs keeps the two pieces of energy separate causing two separate storms. One in the 2/4-5 time frame and another in the 2/6-7 time which is what brings the snow to Atl. The cmc is faster w/ the 2nd piece of energy from the northern stream and doesn't dig as far south, phasing it w/ the gulf energy around Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS mean looks pretty darn close at 114 for something at the very least for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS clown map looks good for 2/7, but of course it is 10 days out. Eastern NC has a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS mean looks pretty darn close at 114 for something at the very least for the mountains.yeah just looked. It keeps the cold air in here longer then goes to rain then back to snow. Close but who knows if it is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS shows signs of what could happen with the day 9-10ish storm. This is the one to watch folks. The 12z is extremely colder with the highs 1045 south of the lakes, big difference in whether this is rain or snow. The models clearly don't have the cold figured out, but like I've said the storm signal is there...we'll have to watch the cold trends on the both the OPs and the means, see if it trends colder the closer we get, if so we're in as I don't think this is a type of situation that would lead to supression. Very generally speaking, timing is everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS mean looks pretty darn close at 114 for something at the very least for the mountains. The PV is much further south on the GEFS then EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS mean looks pretty darn close at 114 for something at the very least for the mountains. Yeah, definitely. Colder the the op, which wasn't too terribly far off. Of course, the GGEM was a cutter and I punted last night, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good Miller A signal @192 on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah, definitely. Colder the the op, which wasn't too terribly far off. Of course, the GGEM was a cutter and I punted last night, though. That was a big shift on the GEFS day 4-5. Maybe a burp run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS shows signs of what could happen with the day 9-10ish storm. This is the one to watch folks. The 12z is extremely colder with the highs 1045 south of the lakes, big difference in whether this is rain or snow. The models clearly don't have the cold figured out, but like I've said the storm signal is there...we'll have to watch the cold trends on the both the OPs and the means, see if it trends colder the closer we get, if so we're in as I don't think this is a type of situation that would lead to supression. Very generally speaking, timing is everything here. Good post Jon. That time frame needs to be watched closely for a storm. The telleconnections are primed for that time period. The ao will be negative as well as there will be some slight blocking on the nao region as well the pna will be headed positive again. Typhoon tip has a great read in the NE sub forum about this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The navgem agrees with the gfs. I think we should declare the navgem the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 While we are still having to rely on the fantasy range for winter weather, I have been paying more and more attention at the broad picture. A total of 3 separate rain events through 192 hours with the 4th being the winter threat. This train of low pressure systems lays down a path of 2-4 inches QPF through day 7 with about. 90 percent of the Southeast getting at least 1 inch of rain. If nothing else the ground moisture content is increasing with each passing week. That will be more of interest to us once we get to Spring and convective weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEFS mean looks pretty darn close at 114 for something at the very least for the mountains. Euro op and its ensembles will be telling next 3 runs. Entering its wheelhouse (Day 3-5)so we should be able to put the Sun/Mon threat to rest for better or worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good post Jon. That time frame needs to be watched closely for a storm. The telleconnections are primed for that time period. The ao will be negative as well as there will be some slight blocking on the nao region as well the pna will be headed positive again. Typhoon tip has a great read in the NE sub forum about this also. Thanks. Yeah I'm so busy these days I glance at the runs real quick and make a generic post, don't have much time to dissect, wish I could read other thoughts in other forums as I'm sure they are very well thought out. The means and members have been pretty generous for SE snow during that time period, so it's interesting and all depends on the highs and how fast they move/set in. I'm hoping someone in the SE cashes out with this one or a good 90% of us might be jumping. I'll still wait til March 15th or so probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The canadian drags down a massive trof behind that Day 8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well that's a big shift on the euro. 0z had low up into day 5, 12z has light wintery precip for northern NC , TN and VA. PV much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is night and day colder on this run.....it's close for the 2nd event. 1040 high sliding into the Dakotas good stream separation. We'll see where it goes but this was a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is trying folks don't put this storm to rest yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is trying folks don't put this storm to rest yet.agree burger some big chances on the afternoon runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is trying folks don't put this storm to rest yet. I mean this is pretty much the Euro playbook for snowstorms in the SE, hints at it in the 10-12 day range get wonky but still throw's us a bone every coule of days with a snowstorm run until it finally starts to go back to the snowy look it had day 10-12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is trying folks don't put this storm to rest yet. For 2/2? Yeah 850s are plenty cold but no moisture. 1013mb low off the coast isn't going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is trying folks don't put this storm to rest yet. I agree, the weak -AO got a little stronger, the weak -NAO got a little stronger, the PAC ridge/-EPO got a little better. All that added up to the PV shifting south a little which made all the difference in the world, but we need a little more southern stream interaction to have more precip but not to much. Verbatim, central NC get's precip holed and all the snow is confined to central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We definitely have southward trend with respects to the day 4-5 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This run could mean fireworks for the Day 9-10 threat, don't have frames out yet but I wouldn't be surprised given the NH look at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What's those red colors doing over the pole, strange. I wonder what would happen if the PV would drop just a little bit more right after this onto the backside of the southern stream wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What's those red colors doing over the pole, strange. I wonder what would happen if the PV would drop just a little bit more at this time... The PV swings east below hundson, if this trend continues, boom. We get a gulf tapped system that bombs off the coast with just enough cold to make the NC happy and maybe more of the SE as well. If the ridge out west builds as well you can forget it, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The PV swings east below hundson, if this trend continues, boom. We get a gulf tapped system that bombs off the coast with just enough cold to make the NC happy and maybe more of the SE as well. If the ridge out west builds as well you can forget it, game on. You can see @180 it's close but no cigar. If that energy in the south were slower it would probably be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.