Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Number 1, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting 5h top 2 analogs... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT How are we doing with the top 5 analogs going into this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are we doing with the top 5 analogs going into this winter? Not good, abysmal compared to any of the top analogs. 05 was the least snowiest but had snow and blocking, unlike this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like CMC from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GEFS has snow for lots of us on the mean. Edit: well the 16 day. the 1-8 isn't the worst for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Look at what the Euro had at day 5 for this Sunday/Monday deal compared to what's going to happen. This happened with the rainy coastal, it happened with Juno, for all the globals until it got inside day 4 and then it slowly trended stronger/deeper each run. It's been like clockwork in January, I know I am totally jinx'ing it for the people that want snow but just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Congrats to Waycross on the 18z GFS hr 138! Seriously I still like the look! It looks like a fromtal passage Thursday, with some leftovers down around SGA! Man , the high is strong, 1043 or something! Look for these trends by Monday: all models will shift NW, the high will be atleast 10-15 MB weaker than progged now, and a cold rain for Friday Book it! guys we all know this far out the storm will trend north and west, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Reminder of the rainy coastal...EPS at day 5-6 versus what ended up happening, SLP track up 95.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Reminder of the rainy coastal...EPS at day 5-6 versus what ended up happening, SLP track up 95.... 18z GEFS has all kinds of solutions but suppression isn't one that has much support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Interesting 5h top 2 analogs... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Obviously Mar 1-2 1980 is the best snowstorm I have ever been in and the totals for the east are way underdone on this map as well......the storm also was cold I mean real cold temps fell into the teens ( hell got to 12 at RDU at the height of it) so we had blizzard conditions with white out conditions at times, thunder etc with temps in the mid teens in eastern NC in the first week of MARCH no less......I wonder how the winter up to that point was in 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We can't get anything inside 5 days that looks good this winter. Maybe this one can change a couple days out for the better. I think if we ever do get snow this winter it isn't going to show up on the models until a couple of days out. If that...I think that if you we manage to get meaningful frozen precipitation this winter we will know it 1 - 2 days out or when it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Obviously Mar 1-2 1980 is the best snowstorm I have ever been in and the totals for the east are way underdone on this map as well......the storm also was cold I mean real cold temps fell into the teens ( hell got to 12 at RDU at the height of it) so we had blizzard conditions with white out conditions at times, thunder etc with temps in the mid teens in eastern NC in the first week of MARCH no less......I wonder how the winter up to that point was in 1980. Wilson, NC recorded 4" of snow in January and 8" of snow in February. With their 16.3" in March, they ended the season with 28.3" of snow! http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=rah 1992-1993 was a dreadful winter until the Superstorm, though. GSO didn't record anything more than a trace in December and January and only 1.7" in February. Then, all of a sudden in mid-March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Obviously Mar 1-2 1980 is the best snowstorm I have ever been in and the totals for the east are way underdone on this map as well......the storm also was cold I mean real cold temps fell into the teens ( hell got to 12 at RDU at the height of it) so we had blizzard conditions with white out conditions at times, thunder etc with temps in the mid teens in eastern NC in the first week of MARCH no less......I wonder how the winter up to that point was in 1980. Not too good, if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not too good, if I remember right. I was 8 I can remember watching the snow dump out the big window in the living room till it was deeper than the porch, we could barely find anywhere that was less than 24" and most places measured 24-36" but it was drifted up pretty bad......6-10 ft in places. I got pictures around here somewhere that are from 2-3 days later...I would pretty much kill for that storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hi everyone I live in south central virginia any hope or just hang it up? Just wishin Models have been so terrible this year 5 days out is way to early to hang it up all the way. If it was north and trending north, it would be worse but suppressed right now is a better look for sure at this point in my opinion. If you like strong winds, you might get a taste of that Monday afternoon or evening for anyone near the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check out Frank Strait's latest video. It has a good point about the Southeast Ridge (that we all hate) possibly helping us out. I hadn't thought about that. The way he talks, is he thinks it will happen for some of us.. he's pretty iffy on actually "saying it" but definitely can read him basically saying so for someone. I've always considered him a good Southern meteorologist. None of that overhype etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z GEFS has all kinds of solutions but suppression isn't one that has much support Yep, a few amped ones, a few misses and a few hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was 8 I can remember watching the snow dump out the big window in the living room till it was deeper than the porch, we could barely find anywhere that was less than 24" and most places measured 24-36" but it was drifted up pretty bad......6-10 ft in places. I got pictures around here somewhere that are from 2-3 days later...I would pretty much kill for that storm again. That sounds awesome. I was either in Asheville or Winston at the time. I was 6, so I don't remember right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check out Frank Strait's latest video. It has a good point about the Southeast Ridge (that we all hate) possibly helping us out. I hadn't thought about that. The way he talks, is he thinks it will happen for some of us.. he's pretty iffy on actually "saying it" but definitely can read him basically saying so for someone. I've always considered him a good Southern meteorologist. None of that overhype etc. frank is great, always is a strait shooter. we need to see models converge shortly if this is going to be our storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That sounds awesome. I was either in Asheville or Winston at the time. I was 6, so I don't remember right now. I was in Goldsboro (Father was in Air Force). That was an amazing storm. Goldsboro received about 13 inches of snow but the drifts were over three feet. I would say it's the only blizzard I've ever been in. Amazing cold as well. I think temps dropped into the lower teens with high winds at the tail end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check out Frank Strait's latest video. It has a good point about the Southeast Ridge (that we all hate) possibly helping us out. I hadn't thought about that. The way he talks, is he thinks it will happen for some of us.. he's pretty iffy on actually "saying it" but definitely can read him basically saying so for someone. I've always considered him a good Southern meteorologist. None of that overhype etc. Interesting take on the SE ridge effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Interesting take on the SE ridge effect. Is it time for the "is it a SE ridge or not?!?!?!?" debate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is it time for the "is it a SE ridge or not?!?!?!?" debate? I could care less what it's called, as long as it turns our storm up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is it time for the "is it a SE ridge or not?!?!?!?" debate? LOL, this winter is so jacked up....we are having to hope for a stronger SE ridge to get a snow event. You know this winter sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM and JMA look identical at hour 72....wow. Lets see what the GFS does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM and JMA look identical at hour 72....wow. Lets see what the GFS does tonight. That is most likely a bad thing if we want the JMA solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That is most likely a bad thing if we want the JMA solution. You want the JMA solution to come true. That's the best case scenario negating temperature profiles at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You want the JMA solution to come true. That's the best case scenario negating temperature profiles at the moment. Yes, and that's not good the NAM agrees with it out to its range. 850s torched at the end (on JMA), but most got good amounts of precip first. What do you think of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You want the JMA solution to come true. That's the best case scenario negating temperature profiles at the moment. no, the nam past 72 is almost guaranteed to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 no, the nam past 72 is almost guaranteed to be wrong The NAM past 30 isn't too great either. We need to take that technology/funds and replace it with something better. If I'm not mistaken, didn't the NAM basically take over for the ETA (that was crazy wrong on ptype/precip)? I don't mind it on the Hi-Res scale within 12 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.