Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No need to throw in the towel because of what the Euro has shown for just today when other models look better and the Euro has been so inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If I'm seeing it correctly, the JMA is trending more towards an icy solution for Northern GA and ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RAH is going conservative for now... PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 KCAE adding snow/rain to the grids for Northern Midlands. Guess they are not siding with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GSP going with all rain for the Thursday timeframe! Outside the mountains , sounds awesome! Edit: before Iso gets at me, they did say there could be a changeover to light snow at the end, outside the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 KCAE adding snow/rain to the grids for Northern Midlands. Guess they are not siding with the Euro. Good for them. The Euro's been a flaming turd storm this winter. If you side with the Euro, you better makes sure you carry plenty of Renuzit with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yep, worse run than last night. The Euro and EPS were awful with the rainy coastal a couple of weeks ago, it was consistently way SE. Didn't pick it up until inside day 4. I bet GFS gives us a weenie run shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro and EPS were awful with the rainy coastal a couple of weeks ago, it was consistently way SE. Didn't pick it up until inside day 4. I bet GFS gives us a weenie run shortly. Very true. Let's hope they're wrong again. BTW, did you see the ridiculous D10 Euro? Not sure what that system was, but it dropped an inch or so for portions of N NC and of course destroyed DC. The clown actually drops 3" of fake digital snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro and EPS were awful with the rainy coastal a couple of weeks ago, it was consistently way SE. Didn't pick it up until inside day 4. I bet GFS gives us a weenie run shortly. Who is this guy???? I agree and the euro op has corrected north the last two systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Who is this guy???? I agree and the euro op has corrected north the last two systems LOL, supression hasn't been the issue this year. Temps have been an issue and systems have been digging more, better phasing inside day 5. Look at this storm today/tomorrow. It was a weak wave for us 2-3 days ago now it's a rainy mess for NYC because it's so amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOL, supression hasn't been the issue this year. Temps have been an issue and systems have been digging more, better phasing inside day 5. Look at this storm today/tomorrow. It was a weak wave for us 2-3 days ago now it's a rainy mess for NYC because it's so amped up. no blocking is just killing us so far this year. Just a little would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS is a train wreck. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We can't get anything inside 5 days that looks good this winter. Maybe this one can change a couple days out for the better. I think if we ever do get snow this winter it isn't going to show up on the models until a couple of days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs sends the low over central fl. no precip makes it north of the fl/ga state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs sends the low over central fl. no precip makes it north of the fl/ga state line. I just have a hard time believing that will happen with how wet it has been here this winter. Not having the cold at the right time has been the problem this winter, not suppression. Suppression goes against the pattern we have been in all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Congrats to Waycross on the 18z GFS hr 138! Seriously I still like the look! It looks like a fromtal passage Thursday, with some leftovers down around SGA! Man , the high is strong, 1043 or something! Look for these trends by Monday: all models will shift NW, the high will be atleast 10-15 MB weaker than progged now, and a cold rain for Friday Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just have a hard time believing that will happen with how wet it has been here this winter. Not having the cold at the right time has been the problem this winter, not suppression. oh no doubt. we have seen this countless times with the old gfs where we would celebrate when it would send our low to cuba and bring it back into the money 3-4 days out. just not sure the new gfs has the same tendencies and if the cold really will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAVGEM has a pretty good shot of snow/ice for middle SC/GA... a little too suppressed for the rest of us. Both the navy and JMA develop excellent confluence in new england(and thus classic CAD) in tandem with our potential system b/c they are faster with the northern stream system up there... It would be nice to see the other global models trend in this direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs sends the low over central fl. no precip makes it north of the fl/ga state line.Some of our best storms looked like this 5 days out, glad to see all the models have the same supression look, this is the one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sure did only to retreat the cold as well.... Example:Tommrow Cold rain FTW! No blocking means no snow. But serious question, could tommrows storm slow the next one down and act as a partial blocking probley dosent make sence just a thought i have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting 5h top 2 analogs... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Some of our best storms looked like this 5 days out, glad to see all the models have the same supression look, this is the one ! I completely agree. This is a good look to have. Storms have trended north all winter. We may end up with a cold rain but if you look at trends from all winter they trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 oh no doubt. we have seen this countless times with the old gfs where we would celebrate when it would send our low to cuba and bring it back into the money 3-4 days out. just not sure the new gfs has the same tendencies and if the cold really will be there. If it does get suppressed this time then we just have horrible luck. Like I said, it would go against the pattern we have been in all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting 5h top 2 analogs... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT You can say that again! Superstorm 1993 , as #2!How often does that show up?!??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just have a hard time believing that will happen with how wet it has been here this winter. Not having the cold at the right time has been the problem this winter, not suppression. Suppression goes against the pattern we have been in all winter. Good post, Brick. 100% spot on. Things could not look better at this point, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If it does get suppressed this time then we just have horrible luck. Like I said, it would go against the pattern we have been in all winter. Hate to tell you but...We have horrible luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You can say that again! Superstorm 1993 , as #2! How often does that show up?!??! I like #1 better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like #1 better.I don't remember that one, but I was only 5 , and in Gastonia, how'd I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting 5h top 2 analogs... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT LOL, the most widespread winter storm in NC history (March 1980) and the Superstorm as the top two analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't remember that one, but I was only 5 , and in Gastonia, how'd I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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