Lookout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure where all this information about CHS getting snow on this Canadian run is coming from... 850s run 3-9C at CHS during all the precip. for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thnx for the ukie maps. If those are 24 hr panels and I'm sure they are, that appears you have a phasing storm that comes together off GA coast and rides seaboard. This would be great for large part of NC, epeacilly piedmont foothills and mtns. But it's risky cause you'll get jumped while the ns and southern stream energy jump to coast, then have to wait on coastal to Rev up in a hurry before it gets past us heading up the seaboard. I know the MA crowd has to be rooting for this. As Cheez said, it is probably just rain for us. WB has the 00z run up now with 6-hour panels and it tracked through central AL/GA then into SC inland into NC and then just offshore of the OBX. Looks like extreme N NC got a little bit of snow, but that's it. Terrible track for us. It's strange to see the UKMET and Euro so far off from one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well GFS is the new king! Whatever it shows, is going to happen! Ask NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ugh. Inland track is a no brainer, couldn't tell on the 24 hr panels. This should throw caution into the wind, hopefully if we see a phase partial phase it's far enough south not to screw things up with waa. It's hard to root for this to amp up. We all want to swing for fence, but it increases the odds of striking out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ugh. Inland track is a no brainer, couldn't tell on the 24 hr panels. This should throw caution into the wind, hopefully if we see a phase partial phase it's far enough south not to screw things up with waa. It's hard to root for this to amp up. We all want to swing for fence, but it increases the odds of striking out . Luckily, it seems to be on its own with it. It looks like the 12z NAVGEM finally got a little bit onboard with the snow potential with its latest run. Looks like some snow for N AL/GA and central SC (CAE area), assuming surface temps are okay. Prior runs were suppressed like the Euro. --- Looks like Robert is honking this system, FWIW. Brick will have an update on it when he gets on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looking at the 12z euro, I don't think it's going to work out. The northern energy looks too far east and doesn't look like it's going to dig far enough south. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO appears to be holding course from the 00z run. Storm is squashed into GOM oblivion through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let the Euro get into its wheelhouse of 48hrs. Don't force it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro crushes Boston with the Super Bowl Storm. Of course. It's so far north that NYC switches over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 not a foot of snow but canadian does hit them/coastal areas with pretty much everything except the kitchen sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO appears to be holding course from the 00z run. Storm is squashed into GOM oblivion through 108. yep..total miss for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO actually looks like it's interacting moreso with that northern stream storm in Maine rather than the one trailing coming down the Rockies. It's pulling it due east through the GOM. Interesting. Still think we have it right where we want it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sorry with the Euro, Ukie, ensembles all saying what storm, I think that this one was just another teaser from bad models. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, the euro is ugly. The total opposite of what we need. The flow looks zonal and and hardly any ridge. The northern energy goes right over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie has a wound up monster! The euro and ukie could not be any farther apart. I only have access to temps and surface maps for the ukie off wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sorry with the Euro, Ukie, ensembles all saying what storm, I think that this one was just another teaser from bad models. Next. yep, we have seen this the past 3 threats, models give just enough to hold onto hope only to fall apart as we come closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sorry with the Euro, Ukie, ensembles all saying what storm, I think that this one was just another teaser from bad models. Next. The only good thing is, the models have proven they can't be trusted at all at this range all season so there is a little bit of room for optimism. I'm not willing to say we won't get at least a little bit of frozen stuff..but the emphasis is certainly on little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's hard to believe there won't be a system. Squashing has only happened like once all year. It might be rain, but I'll bet there will be a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12zJMA.... Boom goes the dynamite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's hard to believe there won't be a system. Squashing has only happened like once all year. It might be rain, but I'll bet there will be a storm. Boston will get a storm. That much I can guarantee. Somehow, some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There is too much spread in the models to toss this event. maybe the 40 year old former Cy young winner scores with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The JMA looks like quite a big hit for many. 1300m line well through the Midlands of SC even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JMA! Ftl !! I agree with cr, there may be a rainstorm , but there will be a storm in the Wed-Fri timeframe ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Right now: -Past 4 runs of GFS has been consistant with a 1008mb,1008mb,1008mb, and 1002mb off the coast of NC (Most Consistent) -Euro has gotten warmer over the past three runs with NO storm off the coast of NC -GEM has trended more more west over the past 3 runs (Least Consistent) - And JMA takes the weenie crown with a bomb off the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Right now: -Past 4 runs of GFS has been consistant with a 1008mb,1008mb,1008mb, and 1002mb off the coast of NC (Most Consistent) -Euro has gotten warmer over the past three runs with NO storm off the coast of NC -GEM has trended more more west over the past 3 runs (Least Consistent) - And JMA takes the weenie crown with a bomb off the coast of SC. I'm riding the JMA 'til the wheels fall off! <0 805s for MBY. GFS has yet another chance to challenge for the throne...at least in the D5-7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm riding the JMA 'til the wheels fall off! <0 805s for MBY. GFS has yet another chance to challenge for the throne...at least in the D5-7 range. 850s are fine for all of us on the JMA until it bombs out. Actually, it has no precip north of the NC/VA border, though. It's decent here for a light/moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The jma and ukie have the same idea. The ukie is inland verse jma being latter. The euro is furthest from the ukie with all the other gidance sandwiched in between. So you can't lump the euro and ukie together verse all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's the euro and the eps vs the GGEM and GFS The EPS is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Folks, the Euro's wheelhouse is the. 84-96 hour range. We will know its fate on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's the euro and the eps vs the GGEM and GFS The EPS is ugly Yep, worse run than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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